A deal in which Somaliland agreed to lease a Red Sea military port to Ethiopia has sparked anger in Somalia. Somaliland is an independent and autonomous state that claims Somalia as part of its own northern territory.
Mogadishu on Tuesday recalled its ambassador from Ethiopia for “deliberations” on the issue, saying the port deal signed a day earlier would increase tensions and endanger stability in the wider Horn of Africa region. .
Sentiment about the port deal is already running high. Somalis took to the streets of Mogadishu to protest the deal on Wednesday.
what do you mean?
The agreement, signed in Addis Ababa by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland leader Muse Bihi Abdi, provides for a 50-year term for the naval base with access to Somaliland’s Berbera port for commercial maritime activities. The lease is granted to Ethiopia.
In return, Ethiopia said it would provide a “detailed assessment” of Somaliland’s pursuit of formal recognition as an independent state, the first time any other country has offered this. Somaliland will also receive a stake in state-owned Ethiopian Airlines, a statement from the Ethiopian government revealed, but details about this part of the agreement, particularly regarding additional financial payments, are scant.
In a separate statement published in He also added that this will enable the two parties to deepen their relationship beyond the economic and political spheres.
prime minister @AbiyAhmedAli and Somaliland President Muse Bihe Abdi signed a historic memorandum of understanding in Addis Ababa.#PMOEEthiopia pic.twitter.com/6lPlCoepGr
— Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia (@PMEthiopia) January 1, 2024
This agreement has been long awaited. In 2019, Ethiopia bought a 19% stake in Berbera Port, with Somaliland holding 30% and Dubai-based company and port management company DP World holding 51%. In exchange for approximately $442 million in financing for continued port upgrades, DP World will manage the port for 30 years. The United Arab Emirates group’s investment in Berbera has previously sparked controversy in Somalia, with parliament voting in 2018 to invalidate the deal. That action had little effect in stopping the project.
The port opens Ethiopia to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, giving it access to Europe. Details about exactly when the lease agreement will take effect are unclear.
Why is Somalia angry about this deal?
Somalia and Somaliland have a long and bitter history, as Mogadishu considers the autonomous region of 4 million people to be part of its territory.
Governed as a British protectorate until 1960, Somaliland briefly gained independence before merging with Somalia to form a republic.
The region separated from Somalia in 1991 after fighting a war of independence mainly along ethnic lines. These wounds remain unhealed among Somali families on both sides of the border.
Somaliland has since operated autonomously, despite having low income and no access to international trade or finance. Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, prints its own passports, issues Somaliland shillings and holds elections. Some experts consider the region to be one of the “most stable” de facto states in the world.
However, Mogadishu views international recognition of Somaliland as an attack on Somalia’s sovereignty. Somalia’s government said the port agreement with Addis Ababa was “outrageous” and “unauthorized.”
“The Federal Government of Somalia considers this to be a hostile act and… constitutes a blatant violation and violation of the independence, sovereignty and territorial independence of the Federal Republic of Somalia,” a government statement released on Tuesday said. It is being
We strongly condemn and strongly reject the outrageous act of the Ethiopian FG in signing an unauthorized memorandum of understanding with Somaliland (northern region of Somalia) on January 1, 2024 in Addis Ababa. pic.twitter.com/84ngjhxvK9
— Office of the Permanent Secretary for Foreign Affairs🇸🇴 (@PSMOFA) January 3, 2024
“We cannot stand by and watch our sovereignty be violated,” President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told parliament on Tuesday.
The agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia comes days after Mogadishu and Hargeisa agreed to restart Djibouti-led mediation aimed at getting the parties to resolve deep-rooted issues. Several such negotiations have taken place in the past, but with no results.
This latest development may stall those conversations again, independent researcher Mustafa Ahmad, speaking from Hargeisa, told Al Jazeera. “Both sides shared different interpretations of the content of the talks,” Ahmad said. “Mogadishu said it was a reunion talk, and Somaliland said it was about deciding its fate as an independent state. It was bound to fail, but this crisis It just became the catalyst for its collapse.”
Why does Ethiopia want access to the sea?
Ethiopia is one of Africa’s most populous countries with 120 million people, but its economy is limited by a lack of access to the sea.
The East African country was cut off from the Gulf of Aden after Eritrea seceded in 1993 following a 30-year war that took all of Eritrea’s former coastline.
Since then, Ethiopia has relied primarily on small Djibouti for port operations. Djibouti Port handles more than 95% of Ethiopia’s import and export cargo. Addis Ababa also successfully operates a shipping company from the Djibouti port.
On October 13, Abiy told parliament that the sea is critical to Ethiopia’s survival.
“Ethiopia is an island surrounded by water, but it is a thirsty country,” he said. “The Red Sea and the Nile will define Ethiopia. They are connected to Ethiopia and will be the basis for its development or its demise.”
His comments caused concern across East Africa. Analysts questioned whether he was referring to a possible military invasion of Ethiopia’s neighbors in a region that is already experiencing multiple political crises and climate change-related events such as drought. did. But Addis Ababa later clarified that the prime minister was not referring to any military action against neighboring countries.
Still, regional repercussions may be inevitable as countries decide which side to side with in the conflict, researcher Ahmad said. Ethiopia contributes to the UN peacekeeping mission in Somalia, and that agreement could be threatened. But domestically, Ahmad said the conflict could be a point for Ethiopia’s troubled government.
“This is an opportunity for Abiy to rehabilitate his unpopular image at home caused by the war in the Tigray region, violent insurgencies in the Amhara and Oromo regions, and the economic downturn the country has faced in recent years. Access to the sea has long presented as an existential issue for Ethiopian leaders, and this new agreement could help Abiy reap domestic political benefits.”
Is there a risk of armed conflict?
Tensions and provocative rhetoric threaten to prolong the diplomatic rift between Ethiopia and Somalia. However, there has been no talk of armed conflict on either side.
There is a history of territorial disputes between the two countries. In 1977, Somalia invaded the Ogaden, which is now a border dispute area with Ethiopia. Supported by the Soviet Union and Cuba, which sought a transcontinental socialist alliance, Ethiopia responded and ultimately won the war. The devastation and defeat of the Somali army, and the eventual rebellion it sparked within the country, is associated with Somaliland’s secession from Somalia.
Somalia is currently no match for Ethiopia. Somalia has 20,000 troops and Ethiopia has more than 130,000 soldiers.
Both countries already face significant instability within their own countries. Mogadishu is engaged in a long-running war with the militant group al-Shabab. Ethiopia is grappling with the aftermath of the Tigray war and a new conflict in the Amhara region.
An all-out war could also significantly hamper the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, which includes thousands of Ethiopian soldiers who are likely to leave.
How did the world react?
Several countries and international organizations have intervened in the conflict, most of them supporting Somalia. The African Union, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the United States issued a statement this week calling on Ethiopia to respect the sovereignty of Mogadishu.
The same goes for the European Union, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and the League of Arab States. In a statement on X, the league, which also includes Somalia, advised Ethiopia to “adhere to the rules and principles of good neighborliness.”
The East African Trade Area’s Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) on Wednesday refused to take sides, instead calling on all parties to resolve the issue amicably. Mogadishu criticized the response as falling short of an appropriate condemnation.
What’s next?
Despite concerns about controversy and escalating tensions, Somalilanders took to the streets to celebrate on Monday after the port deal was announced. Overall, they are excited by the prospect of recognition for their region by other countries and by the belief that economic opportunities lie beyond Mogadishu’s influence.
“The current mood in Somaliland is cautiously optimistic,” said analyst Ahmad. “People are happy that Somaliland’s quest for international recognition has finally become a reality, but at the same time there is uncertainty about what lies ahead, including how regional and global powers will support or oppose recognition. I’m wary of sexuality.”
All eyes around the world are now on how Somalia will challenge this agreement. So far, other than Mogadishu saying the lease of Somaliland’s port is illegal, he has not indicated any clear legal steps he intends to take.
Instead, it severed diplomatic relations with Ethiopia and used official telephone calls to pressure countries to issue statements opposing the port agreement. It has also put pressure on regional organizations like IGAD to denounce the agreement.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia doubled down on Wednesday with a lengthy statement insisting that no laws were broken in signing the port agreement. The statement struck a sympathetic tone about Somaliland’s plight, noting that it is not recognized as a state despite Addis Ababa and other countries having consular relations with Hargeisa. .
The agreement “enables Somaliland to receive the type of assistance and partnership not available from other countries, while also meeting long-standing demands,” the statement said.