No matter how much the world cuts carbon emissions, a significant swath of Antarctica is essentially destined for “inevitable” melting, a new study has found.
This 2020 photo provided by the British Antarctic Survey shows Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica.
David Vaughan, British Antarctic Survey (Associated Press)
It will take hundreds of years to fully melt and gradually raise sea levels by nearly 6 feet, but it will be enough to change how and where people live in the future, the study’s lead author said.
Researchers used computer simulations to calculate the future melting of a protective ice shelf that juts into the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica. The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggests that even if future warming is limited to just a few tenths of a second, something many scientists say is unlikely to be achieved. (an international goal), we found that our ability to prevent it would be limited. Ocean warming could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet. ”
“Our main question here was: How much can we control ice shelf melting? How much melting can we prevent by reducing emissions?” of the study. Lead author Caitlin Norton, an oceanographer at the British Antarctic Survey, said: “Unfortunately, it’s not great news. Our simulations suggest that we are dealing with a rapid increase in ocean warming and ice shelf melting rates for the rest of the century.”
Others are also reading…
While past studies have described how dire the situation is, Norton is the first to use computer simulations to study the key dissolved components of the hot water that melts ice from below, and his research shows how the world Four scenarios were considered for how much carbon dioxide would be pumped. atmosphere. In both cases, the study found, ocean warming was too much for this part of the ice sheet to survive.
Norton watched as the Gatekeeper Ice Shelf, which floats above the sea in this part of Antarctica that is already below sea level, melted. When these ice shelves melt, there’s nothing to stop the glaciers behind them from flowing into the ocean.

This undated image shows the northern cove of Antarctica.
Michael Short, British Antarctic Survey (via AP)
Norton specifically investigated what would happen if future warming were somehow limited to an international goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above mid-19th century levels, and would likely have a runaway melting process anyway. discovered. Global temperatures have already risen by about 1.2 degrees Celsius (nearly 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) since before the Industrial Revolution, and at one point exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius for much of this summer.
Norton’s research focused on the part of the West Antarctic ice sheet near the Amundsen Sea that is most at risk of melting from below. These include the massive Thwaites Ice Shelf, which is melting so rapidly that it has earned the nickname “Doomsday Glacier.” Although West Antarctica is only one-tenth the size of the continent’s southern part, it is more unstable than its wider eastern side.
That part of Antarctica is “doomed,” said Eric Rignot, an ice scientist at the University of California, Irvine, who was not involved in the study. “The damage has already been done.”
The ice sheet “will eventually collapse,” said Ted Scambos, an ice scientist at the University of Colorado who was also not involved in the study. That’s not a happy conclusion and I’m just saying it reluctantly. ”
Naughten is reluctant to use the word “doomed.” Because 100 years from now, the world may not only stop atmospheric carbon levels and global warming, but reverse it. But she said what is currently happening on the ground is a slow collapse that cannot be stopped, at least not until this century.
“I think it’s inevitable that we’re going to lose some of this area. It’s inevitable that the problem is going to get worse,” Naughten told The Associated Press. “Sea level rise happens over a very long period of time, so it’s inevitable that we’ll lose everything. In this study, he only looked up to 2100, so we’ll probably still have some control after 2100.”
Regardless of the words used, Norton said she and other scientists who have studied the region in previous studies believe that this part of Antarctica is “unsalvageable, or largely unsalvageable.” He concluded that.
Norton’s study does not calculate how much ice will be lost or how much sea level will rise and how fast. But if it all melted, she estimated that the amount of ice in the most at-risk areas would raise sea levels by about 5.9 feet.
But it will be a slow process and will continue for hundreds of years into the 2300s, 2400s and 2500s, she said.
Norton says it may seem like a long way off, but if the Victorians of the 1800s did something to dramatically change the shape of our world, we He said he wouldn’t look at them in a good light.
If this kind of sea level rise occurred over 200 years, it would be “absolutely catastrophic,” but if it could last for 2,000 years, humans would be able to adapt, Norton said.
“Coastal communities are going to either build around them or be abandoned,” Norton said.
Although this part of the Antarctic ice sheet is destined to be lost, there is still reason to reduce carbon pollution, as other vulnerable parts of the global environment can still be saved by reducing heat-trapping emissions. Naughten said.
Twila Moon, deputy principal investigator at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, who was not involved in the study, said she was concerned that most people would see nothing but pessimism in the study. .
“I don’t see much hope,” Norton said. “But that’s what science has taught me. That’s why I have to tell the world.”
Quoting former NASA scientist Kate Marvell, Norton said, “When it comes to climate change, we need courage, not hope. Courage is the determination to do well, even with no guarantee of a happy ending.” Thing.”
It’s not a trip to Antarctica. Let’s aim to make the leap to winter camping.
plan

– It’s easy. Safety comes first. everytime. What’s the weather forecast? What about the terrain?
— Some state parks and recreation areas welcome winter campers. In light of the impact of COVID-19, please review the warnings to visitors on the park’s individual webpage on the Department of Natural Resources’ website.
Image provider From Yoradas pixabay
camp site

— Find a spot out of the wind and away from snowy branches. Watson also suggests piling snow around the base of your tent for extra wind protection.
— Pack boots or snowshoes at the tent site to reduce moisture on the tent floor. Condensed snow also provides better insulation than bare frozen ground.
— Get creative when securing tent lines in icy conditions. Some people use “dead man” anchors, which weight the line with logs or rocks. Trekking, ski poles, or ice stakes are optional.
— Winter already produces spectacular sunrises (and sunsets). Also consider tent sites that take advantage of the warmth.
sleep

— Bring additional equipment beyond what you wear during the day, such as an extra hat, gloves or mittens. Thompson, who runs REI’s Local Experience Outdoors program, always packs extra warm sleeping gear (such as a beanie, socks, and layers of polyester or wool) and places the bag inside her sleeping bag to create a comfortable environment for a good night’s sleep. is being arranged.
— Get ready to pee. You should drink enough water to keep yourself warm before heading out at night. On a serious note, consider having a separate, well-marked pee bottle to keep it away from your tent. There are also useful personal products made for women.
— The right liner (materials vary) can add 10 to 15 degrees of warmth to your sleeping bag’s rating. Another option is to double your sleeping bag.
— Remove the liner at bedtime to avoid the shock of cold boots in the morning. Tuck it into the bottom of your sleeping bag.
— Just like how you layer your clothes, consider layering for sleep in the following order: You will need two pads under the bag. The insulating properties of closed cell pads make them the perfect base for sandwiching your air mattress between you and your bag. Closed cell pads are rated by their R-value, the higher the number, the better the insulation. Aim for 4 or higher in the winter. Thompson says the pad is also great for standing or sitting because it has a reflective side up to reflect body heat.
— General tips for extra warmth inside your sleeping bag: Fill a Nalgene bottle with hot water and place it near your feet or core. Mr Thompson said holding one was a nice reminder to drink alcohol. We tend to refrain from hydrating during the cold season, but hydration is the key to regulating body temperature. I drink even though I’m not thirsty. Thompson wakes up with a memory. “I won’t leave the bag until I drink 16 ounces of water.”
dream time
fire and food

— Bring simplicity and smartness to your meals. Soup hydrates, nourishes, and warms your body. Consider one-pot meals that can be prepared and reheated in advance, Watson says. Then, think about meals that go well with your stovetop or pot. Simple instant soups and noodles with spices and canned meat take a little more effort.
— You also need to eat a balanced diet and eat more than usual to keep your metabolism active and your energy levels high. Opinions vary, but the conventional wisdom is that more than half of your calories should come from carbohydrates (warm cider, energy bars, pasta, cereals), with the balance balanced by fats (cheese and nuts) and protein (jerky, cooked meats). (incorporate).
— Eat an energy bar or cheese before bed to energize your body. Or consider a hot drink.
— I’ll make dinner before it gets dark. Remember that the days are getting shorter and you don’t want to increase your mental and physical energy to carry out camping duties in low light.
— Rehydrate often. You might end up melting clean snow, so you need to keep that in mind. To be safe, also boil the water before filling the water bottle. Use a small amount of water to help it start dissolving.
— To that end, consider starting a fire to cook and stay warm, Watson said. When conditions permit, he primarily prefers to build a fire, keep a pot of water nearby, and gather separate coals to the side for cooking.
— Use an insulated cooler to keep food from freezing, Watson said. If possible, bury it in the snow to take advantage of natural insulation.
Image provider From Mika B77 pixabay
others

— It’s important to always have backups, right? Extra clothing, hats, and gloves. Apply the same idea to fuel and stoves. Depending on the situation, you may find yourself relying on the stove more than usual.
— Equipment like sleds and small shovels to carry equipment even on short trips can prove invaluable to a successful camping trip.