Modi’s Choice
Narendra Modi was re-elected as India’s prime minister by a much narrower margin than expected, his third consecutive term cementing the charismatic strongman as India’s most important leader for generations.
After 10 years at the helm, Modi has in some ways left India confused about his vision. It remains unclear what kind of country he wants India to be on key issues of relations, economy, society and government.
In today’s newsletter, we address four big questions:
Where will India find friends?
India has deepened its ties with the United States in recent years, forging closer ties with U.S. allies such as Japan and Australia and ordering advanced U.S.-made weapons systems that could create future dependency. India is unlikely to side with China. In 2020, Chinese troops invaded Indian-controlled territory, killing 20 soldiers in a skirmish. Prime Minister Modi has since distanced himself from Beijing.
But the 73-year-old Prime Minister Modi has signaled he does not want to ally with the United States. Some in his inner circle remain wary of the U.S.; U.S. diplomats complain that New Delhi is trying to undermine democratic norms and minority rights. That leaves India open to options: After Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. tried to persuade India to oppose the war, to no avail; India still processes Russian oil (making up for shortfalls created by international sanctions); and it still buys weapons from Russia.
India tried hard to establish itself as a non-aligned nation during the Cold War, and old habits die hard.
What type of economy?
India recently overtook China as the most populous country and the fastest-growing economy of any major power. But much of the country remains poor. About 800 million people need help filling their stomachs. Prime Minister Modi’s ideas on how to help them are contradictory: cosmopolitan and protectionist at the same time.
One way would be to emulate East Asian countries that have lifted themselves out of poverty by manufacturing goods for export. To that end, Prime Minister Modi launched the “Make in India” initiative in 2014, an effort to replace China as the world’s factory. But exports have barely grown, despite Modi’s new subsidies. Some Indian economists say it would be better to focus on services exports, such as IT and remote work for professionals.
Another part of Modi’s vision is a “self-reliant India,” which would reduce the country’s exposure to global supply chains. Protecting Indian companies from foreign competition is at odds with preparing them for it.
Prime Minister Modi has sometimes been evasive when it comes to big economic policy decisions. Like Reagan and Thatcher, he came to power promising to shrink government. In reality, his administration has been heavy-handed in most areas, decreeing radical and sometimes half-baked reforms.
Protecting minority groups?
India’s founders wrote a constitution for a diverse, secular republic. Modi has remade the country into an explicitly Hindu state. He turned Jammu and Kashmir, the country’s only Muslim-majority state, into a union territory with heavy police surveillance. He built a massive Hindu temple on disputed land where mobs had destroyed a mosque. During his election campaign this year, he called Muslims, who make up 14 percent of the population, “infiltrators.” India’s Muslims say they have been made second-class citizens.
Modi’s third term will be a test: Has his Hindu nationalist project been accomplished, or can there still be more to be done to assert the superiority of one religion? The call to put Muslims in their rightful place is the lifeblood of his party, winning majorities among a highly diverse and caste-divided Hindu population. In his third term, he may choose new targets, such as campaigning to replace historic mosques with Hindu temples. But he may be constrained by new political partners who are not beholden to the party’s Hindu-first project.
How authoritarian is it?
One of the reasons Modi has remained popular over the years is because of his ability: He often imposes sudden reforms, cutting through bureaucracy with audacity and even eccentricity. He streamlined the tax system and built a semiconductor industry from scratch. He has no patience for obstacles.
As a result, the world’s largest democracy has come to ignore many democratic norms. Police have jailed opposition leaders and increased the number of political prisoners. The Election Commission is stuffed with Modi allies. The judiciary rarely stands in the way of the government’s priorities.
Modi appears to have kept his job, but he has lost his parliamentary majority and now needs to appease his coalition partners and negotiate big reforms that might save some of the institutions designed to ensure fair play.
Another possibility is that Modi will crack down harder than ever and use his direct machinery to ensure his party continues to win against increasingly powerful rivals. Modi has come this far despite all the complaints about repression. If anything can hold him back now, it will come from within his new coalition.
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