I can’t believe conference championship week is already here. Ten conference titles are on the line this weekend, from the College Football Playoff to the New Year’s Six bowl game.
What better way to end the season than to say thank you, check out our college football odds, and give away a free college football pick every time the title is tilted?
Thank you for following (or fading out) the triple-option college football player picks all year long, and a personal shout-out to Douglas Farmer for filling in for me this season. Thanks for the kick…I’m not blaming the newborn baby girl.
Here are my best bets for conference championship week.
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College Football Championship Week odds, picks, and predictions
New Mexico State vs. Liberty Prediction
The Liberty Flames have a strong offensive line and are 12-0, but the New Mexico State Aggies are also a force to be reckoned with. Yes, the Aggies lost an early-season matchup to the Flames 33-17 in September, but a lot has changed since then.
New Mexico State enters this game having won nine straight SU/ATS games, but has entered four of its last five games as an underdog, including defeating Auburn as a 25.5-point powerhouse by 31 points. This includes breaking by 10.
Dual-threat QB Deigo Pavia leads an Aggies offense that ranks 10th in yards per play and 20th in offensive success rate. He can make enough efforts to maintain this situation.
choose: New Mexico +11.5 (-110 at bet 365)
Oregon vs. Washington predictions
The Pac-12 Championship is a rematch of one of the best college football games we’ve seen all season, when the Washington Huskies defeated the Oregon Ducks 36-33 in Seattle.
Since then, the Ducks and Huskies have taken very different paths to get here. While Oregon State dominated all of its opponents, it felt like Washington State had to struggle to maintain its undefeated record.
By the numbers, Oregon’s biggest advantage compared to Washington is defense, but the best passers the Ducks have faced (Michael Penix Jr., Caleb Williams, Cam Ward) have all thrown the football against them. I was able to move it.
Penix & Co. does enough to keep this interesting. Getting 10 points from the team that wins the first matchup is outrageous.
choose: Washington +10 (-105 at Caesars)
Oklahoma State vs Texas Prediction
The Texas Longhorns have a few things to overcome if they want to make it to the College Football Playoff for the first time, but winning this Big 12 Championship Game won’t hurt their chances.
Longhorn attacks can be deadly. Quinn Ewers has been playing well, ranking 22nd in both yards per play and points per play, with the best skill position players in the country at his disposal.
This Oklahoma State Cowboys defense ranks 117th in opponent yards per play and continues to be killed against the run, but it will be difficult to slow down the Texans. Remember, style points are important to Longhorns.
choose: Texas Team Total Over 35.5 (-106 on FanDuel)
Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo predictions
Leave it to MAC-tion to create attractive title games. It’s a classic offense vs. defense battle as the Toledo Rockets face off against the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks, aiming for back-to-back conference titles.
And with Toledo’s only loss this season a two-point loss to Illinois, the Rockets still maintain their hopes of winning a New Year’s Six Bowl.
Led by two-way quarterback DeQuan Finn and running back Penny Boone, the Rockets boast the best offense in the MAC. On Saturday, they’ll be going against the best defense in the conference, but the problem is, while Toledo’s defense isn’t too bad, Miami’s offense stinks, ranking 110th in success rate. Thing.
Toledo won 21-17 in a matchup between the two teams on October 21st. We should see more of the same in his running ability and defense.
choose: Under 44 (-110 at Caesars)
Boise State vs UNLV Prediction
The UNLV Rebels are one of the best stories in college football this season and will look to win by double digits for the first time since 1984.
UNLV has gotten this far thanks to an impressive offense centered around QB Jayden Maiava, wideout Ricky White and a solid running back, but this game will be about Maiava and White.
The Boise State Broncos have bounced back from a slow start this season, but it’s a bad matchup for the Broncos.Ranked 114thth They were 57th in opponent yards per attempt and opponent completion percentage on passes.
Meanwhile, Boise’s run-first attack should be slowed down by the Rebels’ rush defense, which allows 4.1 yards per carry and ranks 36th in success rate against the run. I think the wrong team has an advantage here.
choose: UNLV +2.5 (-105 during Fan Duel)
Appalachian State vs. Troy predictions
James Madison will not be playing in the Sun Belt Championship Game due to a frankly stupid rule. Instead, the Appalachian State Mountaineers will play the Trojans for the conference title.
Troy has an elite defense that has allowed just 13 points per game in conference play and ranks 11th in the nation in opponent yards per play.
Despite winning five straight games to get to this point, the Mountaineers’ inconsistency on offense will hurt against this impressive defense.
Another issue is that Trojan running back Kimani Vidal could rumble the entire App State defense, which ranks 115th in opposing yards per carry.
choose: Troy -5.5 (-115 on FanDuel)
SMU vs Tulane Prediction
The SMU Mustang has quietly become my vehicle this season. The Ponies’ defense is one of the most underrated teams in the nation, with only two losses to Big 12 opponents Oklahoma and TCU.
That defense can do it all: stuff the run, protect the pass, and put pressure on the quarterback. SMU ranks seventh in opponent yards per play and sack rate, and 14th in defensive success rate. If there’s anyone who can slow Michael Pratt down, it’s them.
Preston Stone will be gone, but SMU should have success against a pass-weak Tulane Green Wave defense that ranks 100th in yards per game and 70th in defensive success rate. has been done. This is a very winnable game for SMU so he will be happy to take the points.
choose: SMU +3.5 (-110 on FanDuel)
Georgia vs Alabama predictions
The Alabama Crimson Tide has improved greatly since their loss to Texas in Week 2. Although quarterback Jalen Milroe in particular played well, the Tide was far from perfect and would need a miracle to beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
Speaking of perfect, the Georgia Bulldogs have won 29 straight games, but their last loss was in the 2021 SEC Championship to…you guessed it…the University of Alabama. Thanks to Carson Beck’s development, Georgia is number one heading into this matchup, and the Bulldogs rank third in offensive success rate.
There’s no question that Alabama’s defense is better in this matchup than it’s been in a while, but Georgia still has power on that side of the ball. And the Tide had some issues against solid defensive teams.
Bama also fell behind in some games. Georgia ranks 8th in the nation in first half scoring, so I want the Dawgs to hold the lead in the first half.
choose: Georgia -3 first half spread (-115 at bet 365)
Michigan vs. Iowa predictions
This is my only principled play of the weekend. Let me preface this by saying that I think the Michigan Wolverines are the best team in the country and will easily win this game.
That being said, I don’t remember seeing a team with more than three touchdowns and a mid-30s total advantage.
The Wolverines are left with little room for error. The Iowa Hawkeyes will come into this game with no shame, and their defense, which ranks second in opponent yards per play and fourth in completion percentage, will cover this huge spread. He should be able to slow down Michigan’s offense enough to slow down Michigan’s offense.
choose: Iowa +22.5 (-108 on DraftKings)
Louisville vs. Florida State predictions
The Florida State Seminoles are in a tough position. If the Gators didn’t look like the most undisciplined team ever, they probably would have lost to Florida last week. On top of that, the Seminoles could drop to No. 3 QB after backup Tate Rodemaker took an ugly hit in their last game.
And unlike Florida, the Louisville Cardinals are well-coached and have a solid defense that ranks 19th in success rate. He can also run a little bit at FSU, meaning containing Jauhar Jordan could be a problem for the Seminoles.
Louisville lost last week, but they didn’t play much. It seems unfair, but I think this is the end of his magical season at FSU.
choose: Louisville Moneyline (+120 at DraftKings)
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