This file will be updated throughout Friday and Saturday with all the Week 6 NFL player props, so be sure to bookmark it and check back regularly.
nick westbrook iquin
Less than 28.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
Westbrook-Iquine has cleared it in two of five games this season, including one in Week 4 when DeAndre Hopkins was limited with an ankle injury. Hopkins is beyond that and appears to be nearing 100% after playing a season-high 97% of snaps last week.
The Titans’ passing attack currently flows through Hopkins, Chigoziem Okonkwo and Teje Spears. With Treylon Burks out again this week, Ryan Tannehill’s No. 4 target against the Ravens should be Westbrook-Iquine.
However, Kyle Phillips returned to limited action last week, running routes on 38% of Tannehill’s dropbacks. His usage could increase this week, and those snaps will come at the expense of Westbrook Iquine.
Westbrook-Iquine’s weekly minimum is already low, but Phillips’ return will make it even harder to clear that number.
I project Westbrook Iquine’s median value to be closer to 22.5, giving him a 62% chance of staying under 28.5 receiving yards.
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Longest Rush Under 14.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Mattison is a grinder. He averages 4.3 yards per rush (15 and 17), despite only hitting that mark twice all season. He cleared this only once last season (on a 15-yard rush).
I project Mattison to have 13.7 rushing attempts, but the current market puts him at 12.5 rushing attempts. Therefore, I’m more bullish than the market on his potential work volume, and this under still shows tremendous value.
Cam Akers gets the hot hand in this game, potentially limiting Mattison’s early down work, so he’s lower on the floor than usual in the actual competition for touches.
The main concern is that the Bears’ rush defense ranks 20th in DVOA against the run. They struggle more against speedy, home run-hitting hitters like Aaron Jones (9/41/1), Isaiah Pacheco (16/62/1), and Jahlil McLaughlin (7/72/0). I’ve done it. But they have so far contained early down players like Mattison, AJ Dillon (13/19/0) and Brian Robinson (6/10/0).
The Bears have a linebacker duo in Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards that could take care of Mattison if he moves up to the next level. Edwards has been great in run defense, ranking third among LBs in run tackles and fourth in stop percentage. He will be the key to stopping Mattison from clearing this number.
Safety Jaquan Brisker is one of the run defenders at his position and will also help prevent Mattison from taking runs of more than 15 yards.
I project a 67% chance that Mattison will stay below this number.
Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
Dotson has had a disappointing start to the season, but now might be a great time to buy him cheap.
Dotson has been dealing with an ankle injury in recent weeks, but made it through Week 5 without a setback and was able to move closer to 100% after a mini-bye week following Thursday Night Football. You can see that the operating rate of his route is increasing from his 75% level to about 90%.
Dotson only saw targets on 13.4% of his routes. That’s a concern, but with a player as talented as Dotson, it’s far more likely that his target rating will rise than stay in that range.
He is also expected to see a positive regression in catch rate. Dotson has only captured 63% of his targets, but his expected capture rate is closer to 67%. It could be even higher considering Sam Howell’s completion percentage is 4.6% higher than expected.
Howell also led the league in dropbacks through five games. Washington is a pass-heavy offense, so it’s only a matter of time before a talented receiver like Dotson breaks out of his slump. We may look back and laugh at the fact that his prop ended up nearing the high 20s.
I predict Dotson’s median will be close to 38.5, with a 61% chance of clearing 30.5.
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30.5 receiving yards or more (-115, DraftKings)
Before the season, I said it could take a few games for Bryce Young and Mingo’s relationship to finally hit its stride. Last week we started to see that the chemistry between the two was much better, with Mingo scoring 5/48/0.
This period remains a good time to buy at low prices. Mingo has been targeted on 23% of his routes in the past three games, but has only caught 52% of his targets this season.
With an average target depth of 11 yards, Mingo’s catch rate is expected to be closer to 63-65% going forward. Once captured, it will become even more efficient. His batting average after the catch was only 2.1, but his YAC ability was one of his selling points going into the draft.
The Panthers’ pass-heavy follow-on game script will also likely be featured this week. It’s easy to get complacent and think his next 12 weeks will mirror his first 5 weeks. But now is a good time to invest in a rookie QB/WR who should get even better over time.
I predict that Mingo’s median score will be close to 39.5, with a 62% chance of clearing this number.
Rush Attempts Under 11.5 (-120, BetMGM)
In Week 4, Ford began ceding some of the early down duties to Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong Jr. Hunt’s role could expand given that he had time to regain conditioning after the Browns finished Week 5 with a bye. Strong Jr. could see more touches considering he has played well in limited action.
More importantly, both Hunt and Strong began taking over most of the short-yardage duties. These touches are very important in the rush attempt market. Ford continued to dominate the succession process. The Browns could use a dump off on Ford this week as an extension of the run game against a stingy 49ers defense.
The Browns, trailing by 10 points, will likely end their losing streak at some point. This is a game where the overall amount of play will be low for both sides.
I expect Ford to be closer to 10-10.5 rushing attempts, but various factors could push him even lower.
Any endeavor in these markets is massive. I think he has about an 11% chance of getting exactly 11 and he has a 63% chance of staying below 11.5. I think this will go down to -145.
15.5+ Rush Attempts (-115, BetMGM)
The Bengals have the third-highest pass-heavy offense with a higher-than-expected passing rate, but Mixon dominates the backfield touches.
This week, Cincinnati will face a Seahawks team that has allowed a league-best 73 plays per game this season. Seattle has consistently ranked near the top in his plays per game, in 2022 (third most), 2021 (most), and 2020 (most). So we should expect the Bengals to see a slight uptick in play volume this week and for Mixon to get a high spot on this market.
I predicted Mixon to have close to 17 rushing attempts and a 63% chance of completing that number.
Less than 16.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
After catching just one pass for 2 yards in his first four games, Meyer had the best game of his career against the Packers (2/39/0).
They have to be careful about fading out talented rookie tight ends who could be in the midst of a breakout, but I don’t think they’re there yet.
Meyer’s route run rate (46%) was higher than Austin Hooper’s (34%) for the first time this season. However, it was Hooper who played more in passing situations as Meyer was a better run blocker.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Meyer ends up overtaking Hooper as the lead TE this week, but that’s not a guarantee based on last week’s baseline usage. Meyer happened to be on the field more when Las Vegas called a pass play.
The high target percentage (19% TPRR) came in a game where Davante Adams only saw four targets.
I predict Mayer’s median will be close to 11.5, with a 63% chance of staying below 16.5.