British philosopher, mathematician, and pacifist Bertrand Russell said, “War does not decide who is right, it only decides who is left.”
Those words could be the perfect lens through which to view what likely lies in store for Ukraine next year, as troops advance along a front some 600 miles (960 kilometers) wide and dig deeper.
Beyond that front line lies the wasteland of the occupied territory. It is the smoldering ruins of a months-long summer counteroffensive that fell short of Allied hype and failed to dislodge Russian troops from the 20 percent of the country they occupy.
Behind them is a war-weary population, growing domestic political instability and infighting, and increasingly volatile and even delinquent international allies.
Whether it’s aid obstacles in the U.S. Congress, empty arms shelves in Canada, or political tantrums from hostile leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, the wars that captured the world’s attention in 2022 are dangerous. There is no doubt that we have entered a new stage.
DANGER — Because while unity among Ukraine’s allies is beginning to fray, Ukraine’s own domestic political consensus shows signs of unraveling.
Ukraine offensive stalls: experts
Matthew Schmidt, an Eastern Europe expert at the University of New Haven in Connecticut, said Ukraine’s ability to carry out large-scale offensive operations “is over.”
“I don’t think there’s still a lack of belief in that among the political leadership,” he said. “That’s not an accepted fact.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has tied his country’s future, and his political future, to achieving the complete and total withdrawal of Russian troops from all of Ukraine, including Crimea, which Russia has occupied since 2014.
The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valery Zarzhiny, has written a frank assessment of the battlefield situation of the Ukrainian army. economist It was a sharp contrast to Zelenskiy’s unwaveringly optimistic public statements last fall.
Mr Zarouzhny suggested the war was moving towards a stalemate, but Mr Zelenskiy rejected this idea, even though Ukrainian forces had begun digging defensive positions along the front.
“Ukraine cannot continue to wage the war the way it has been doing so far. It’s simple,” Schmidt said, adding that without new U.S. support, Ukraine’s war effort will run out of resources as early as March. It was predicted that there is a possibility of depletion.
Once it became clear that all of Ukraine could not be conquered immediately, Russian President Vladimir Putin switched to a strategy of total attrition, believing that the Western unity that had characterized the immediate post-invasion climate would crumble. .
Putin appears to be counting on the attention-deficit disorder that currently characterizes Western democracies to erode support for Ukraine, and is banking on the return of Ukraine skeptic Donald Trump to the White House. Maybe there is.
![U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands at the beginning of a meeting at the presidential palace in Helsinki, Finland, Monday, July 16, 2018. (AP Photo/Pablo Martínez Monsivai)](https://i.cbc.ca/1.5875433.1703205461!/cpImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_780/finland-trump-putin-summit.jpg)
The far-right in the United States and Canada characterize continued economic and military support for the Kiev government as a waste of money and resources, which Schmidt described as a lie of inaction.
“They haven’t told the whole story yet,” he said. “And the lies by omission that they told created the false impression that this was an unreasonable amount of money… Whatever the amount, it was neither in the economic interest nor in the national security interest of the United States. It’s just not useful.”
Philip Carver, chairman of the conservative U.S.-based Potomac Foundation and an expert on Russian war strategy and tactics, said the U.S. doesn’t need all the Ukrainian soldiers in the line of fire to be sent to Europe. He said it represented one person or one Canadian soldier.
“The Russians have tried various methods to prevent the entry of Western munitions into Ukraine,” he said. Those efforts have not been “successful,” he added, but “the U.S. Congress has done what Russia has not been able to do.”
![Two men in suits walk on either side of a bearded man in a black pullover.](https://i.cbc.ca/1.7067375.1703204416!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_780/congress-us-ukraine-zelenskyy.jpg)
December 19: Democratic and Republican leaders in the US Senate say the US government cannot approve new aid to Ukraine before the end of the year as the two countries continue to seek a compromise on border security. (This is definitely a domestic political issue).
Zelenskiy flew to Washington in mid-December to lobby for support. Ukraine’s president said at a year-end press conference that he was hopeful that the United States would “not betray” his besieged country.
Should Ukraine seek a ceasefire?
But Carver and Schmidt said developments over the past six months have made it much more likely that Ukraine will have to seek some type of ceasefire or negotiated settlement within the next year.
It’s not difficult to understand why. While Russia’s combat losses (dead and wounded now estimated at more than 315,000) have garnered attention, the war has shed blood on the Ukrainian military, both figuratively and literally.
Up to 250,000 military casualties are believed to have occurred in Ukraine, many with severe and debilitating injuries.
![A wounded soldier grimaced as the medic examined him.](https://i.cbc.ca/1.7067381.1703204673!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_780/pictures-of-the-week-global-photo-gallery.jpg)
Even more worrying is the fact that the Ukrainian military is currently facing a tough recruitment battle.
In his essay, Zarzini acknowledged that training and recruiting the military has become a serious challenge. As of December 18, the general had publicly complained about President Zelensky’s decision last summer to fire all recruitment chiefs of Ukraine’s regional armed forces in an effort to crack down on corruption.
“The prolongation of wars, limited opportunities for rotation of troops along the line of contact, and the lack of laws that appear to legally prevent mobilization have significantly reduced public motivation to serve in the military.” Zarzhiny wrote. economist.
Carver said there are important battles to watch in the coming months, chief among them the battle for Avdiivka in the eastern region of Donetsk.
Holding the line in Donetsk
The Russians committed tens of thousands of troops in a major offensive to capture cities in the famous coal mining region. By December 21, they had advanced to within 2 km of the city, with an estimated casualty of nearly 20,000.
Carver said holding this part of the front is critical to Ukraine’s war effort.
“If Ukrainians are forced out of their current positions, they will be in trouble,” he said.
“The way the terrain opens up into flat land is basically open all the way to the Dnipro River (to the west) and to the north, if Russian forces were to break through and invade the area.”
Carver said if Russia attempts to make a big leap forward in the new year, it will likely be in late spring or early summer 2024, when it will once again build up its depleted forces.
In an intelligence assessment dated December 20, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said Ukraine had shifted to a defensive posture along the front and had “concentrated efforts to improve its fortifications.” The report stated that the chances of a breakthrough by Russia were minimal at the time.
“The front is characterized by stagnation,” the assessment said.
Carver said the “horrifying level of Russian casualties” was holding back Russia’s larger gains.
![Mourners gather around the open grave.](https://i.cbc.ca/1.7067391.1703205156!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_780/russia-ukraine-war.jpg)
He said Ukraine is likely to use a combination of long-range missiles, drones and special forces to turn parts of Crimea, the Kerch Strait and the Black Sea region into scorched lands in an effort to prevent Russia from resupplying and rebuilding its forces. Ta. .
“The best hope is that Ukraine will acquire more long-range ATACMS missiles to strangle Russia’s logistics,” Carver said.
In October, Ukraine revealed that it had secretly received and successfully used American tactical missile system (ATACMS) long-range weapons against Russia.
Ukraine says it needs more ATACMS weapons and vast amounts of ammunition, especially NATO-standard 155-millimeter shells.
A friend of sunny weather?
Carver said political machinations in the U.S. Congress and erratic moves by allies, such as Canada’s glacial progress on ramping up ammunition production, have the potential to bring Ukraine to its knees.
Regarding the military’s supply capacity, he said, “The outcome of a war is determined by the last minute.” “And I hate to say it, but— [it’s] It’s embarrassing as an American, it’s humiliating as an American, but we’re the ones making the difference.”
Allies such as the United States and Canada flipped and gave the Ukrainian army 155mm howitzers and modern main battle tanks, arguing that superior technology and firepower would help drive out Russian forces.
But the supply of ammunition and spare parts for that equipment is currently embroiled in a funding battle in Washington.
“So it’s a double whammy that we put these systems in place, and they’re very important to Ukrainians,” Carver said. And now, as ammunition stocks are dwindling, its use has been dramatically curtailed.
![Tanks parade through the city streets.](https://i.cbc.ca/1.7067392.1703205257!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_780/lithuania-armed-forces-day.jpg)
Last fall, a CBC News investigation found that allied efforts to help Ukraine repair the Leopard 2 main battle tanks it received from multiple countries were being hampered by high prices, conflicts between companies and a lack of spare parts. There was found.
The German manufacturer of the 55-ton tank was reluctant to share intellectual property rights to ease a global spare parts shortage.
Russia may have suffered heavy losses, but experts are concerned about its ability to absorb them and rebuild its military.
“The current capabilities of the Russians are [to resupply and rebuild key equipment] “That’s potentially more than the West can help supply to Ukraine,” said Dave Perry, director of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, an Ottawa-based think tank that occasionally hosts events sponsored by defense contractors. he said.
Canada is slow to resupply
Speaking before the House of Commons defense committee in mid-December, Perry said he was particularly concerned about the slow pace at which Canada was increasing production of artillery shells.
Canada produces 3,000 155-millimeter artillery shells each month under a framework called the Munitions Supply Program. It is a standing agreement with five private companies, most notably Canada’s General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, to maintain inventories and provide emergency supply capacity in times of crisis. Systems (GDOT-C).
The federal government is continuing negotiations with companies to expand production.
“It seems to me that there is a lack of urgency and focus on this issue,” Perry testified.
“Despite the technical expertise required for this, in the grand scheme of things, artillery shells are less complex than air defense systems and much of the other equipment that Ukraine needs.”