In August 2016, less than a year after the current government took office, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet gathered at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ontario. For a 2 day retreat. The pastors were sleeping in student dormitories. This week’s big story revolved around a $1,700 car service bill paid by then-Health Minister Jane Philpott.
Among their special guests was Michael Barber, the British guru behind “.delivery science” said David McNaughton, a veteran Liberal adviser who previously served as Canada’s ambassador to the United States.
“All the smart people in Washington were saying the Democrats would win the House, the Republicans would keep the Senate, and Hillary Clinton would win the election,” McNaughton later told me. “And I qualified it by saying, ‘Don’t count on all the smart people in Washington because they’ve been consistently wrong for 18 months.'”
At this point, national polls showed Clinton with a 6-point lead over her Republican rival. But the government needs to prepare for any eventuality, Mr McNaughton told his ministers.
Three months later, Donald Trump was elected President of the United States.
The possibility of a Trump presidency is again weighing on Canada this week as Prime Minister Trudeau’s cabinet gathers in Montreal for a conference. In fact, it seems more plausible now than it did in 2016, even after President Trump incited the violent attack on the U.S. Capitol in 2021. Charged with 91 felonies.Recent polls show President Joe Biden and President Trump in the running Almost evenly.
The Liberal government is likely to spend most of its two days in Trudeau’s hometown discussing purely domestic issues, with official statements calling for “building more housing” and “supporting middle-class advancement.” ‘ will be the topic of discussion. But ministers will also “discuss Canada-U.S. relations ahead of this fall’s presidential election.”
Mr. McNaughton’s successor as ambassador, Kirsten Hillman, is scheduled to travel to Montreal to meet with ministers.she will participate in a panel discussion Flavio VolpeChairman of the Automotive Parts Industry Association. Laura Dawson, Executive Director of the Future Borders Coalition.and Marc-Andre BlanchardFormer Canadian Ambassador to the United Nations and current Executive Vice President of CDPQ Global.
No matter what insight or advice they offer, there’s a lot to think about and worry about.
The sequel may be more explosive than the original
During President Trump’s four years in office from 2017 to 2021, the American president was a constant source of concern for the Canadian government. This was especially true over the past year and a half, when President Trump forced Canada and Mexico to renegotiate NAFTA.
This negotiation and the threat it posed to Canada’s economy prompted a major diplomatic effort. Canadian officials rallied friends and fanned out to find allies in U.S. politics and business.Even if the campaign had some success, it still took a lot of time and energy, and ended Not with a feeling of celebration, but with a sense of relief..
And there was everything else.of american withdrawal From the Paris Climate Agreement Explosion at G7.of Aluminum and steel tariffs. Tweet. I was regularly and repeatedly asked to comment on new outrages and controversies in the news in the United States.
of President Trump’s agenda for his second term Probably even more dramatic. He could withdraw from the NATO military alliance, end U.S. aid to Ukraine and start a new trade war.
“I can immediately foresee a universal 10% tariff that President Trump is going to impose not only on other countries but also on Canada,” Dawson told CBC Radio. the house this weekend.
And, of course, there is the serious threat that Trump poses to American democracy.
“One of the things that Canadian politicians from all political walks of life have to grapple with is what it means to live next to a neighboring country whose heads of government and heads of state are not just fascists or affiliated with fascist borders. “Does it mean what it says? It’s rhetoric, but are you taking policy steps to back it up?” rob goodmansaid a professor at Toronto Metropolitan University and former parliamentary staffer. The House.
With a few exceptions, Prime Minister Trudeau and his cabinet were strictly restrained in what they said and did not say about Mr. Trump, both when he was a candidate in 2016 and when he was president. The possibility of provoking a fight that would have real consequences for Canadians and the economy always seemed to be a top priority for the prime minister.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says a second term for President Donald Trump could slow the world’s progress on climate change in “concerning” ways in a year-end interview with CBC’s chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton. said.
Prime Minister Trudeau may be willing to make at least some statements.he has admitted to having concerns What Trump’s presidency means for the global fight against climate change. he also talks about the choices Americans face —He chose to compare this choice to the choice Canadians will face in the next federal election.
Trudeau’s Liberals have not avoided comparing Conservative leader Pierre Poièvre to Trump. phrase “MAGA conservative” has recently entered the liberal lexicon.
Perhaps that would be undiplomatic. However, Poilievre, unashamed populistwe shouldn’t be surprised that the Liberals are trying to make such a comparison.
the house11:46How Trump 2.0 will shake up Canada
Donald Trump won a landslide victory in the Iowa caucuses this week, bringing his chances of becoming president a second time closer to reality. What does that mean for Canada’s trade, security and politics? Rob Goodman, author of Not Here, Why American Democracy Is Erading and How Canada Can Protect Itself, and CEO of the Future Borders Coalition. Executive Director and trade expert Laura Dawson talks about how Canada can prepare for a potential Trump second term.
Canadians will also be paying attention.
Given a choice, Canadians overwhelmingly prefer Biden over Trump. Abacus Data released a poll this week. According to the survey, 66 percent of respondents supported the Democratic incumbent, compared with 34 percent of likely Republican candidates.
There are deep divisions along party lines. More than 80 per cent of Liberal, NDP and Bloc Quebecois voters support Mr Biden, while 57 per cent of Conservative voters support Mr Trump.
(Perhaps surprisingly, Abacus found that support for Mr. Trump was slightly higher than the average among young Canadians. Polara’s recent discoveries that younger Canadians are less negative about Trump).
Canadians’ understanding of this bet is somewhat complicated.64% of respondents Research by the Angus Reid Institute He agreed that “American democracy cannot survive another four years under Donald Trump.” However, only 32% of Abacus respondents said the election would have a “significant impact” on Canada.

According to Abacus, 28 per cent of Canadians are following the presidential election “very” or “very” closely. Additionally, he said 43% were “somewhat” compliant. This number is sure to increase over the next 10 months. American politics may be one of the most popular spectator sports in the world, but in Canada it often seems to even capture public interest in its own politics.
But in the end, Canadians and their leaders can only watch, wonder, and try to prepare for every eventuality.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said this week that his government is ready to respond to whatever decisions Americans make this year, saying there is no reason why the Canadian government appears unprepared or unable to manage the Canada-U.S. relationship. He said he would not go. Hillman’s appearance, in addition to attracting the attention of his cabinet, may be aimed at showing and communicating to Canadians that the government is preparing.
However, Thomas Juneau, associate professor at the University of Ottawa’s School of Public and International Affairs, Suggested to Politico This week, you may not be completely prepared for what comes next.
“Politically, I can understand why he would say that, but Canada is not ready for that,” Juneau said, pointing to the U.S.’s “democratic backsliding.” Security threats to Canada.
“It’s so unpredictable that no one is prepared for it.”