Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is said to be contemplating his future while on vacation following the resignation of his top cabinet minister, Chrystia Freeland, in mid-December. The bombshell sparked a new wave of calls from inside and outside the caucus for Trudeau to resign as Liberal leader.
Lawmakers are scheduled to return to the House of Commons on January 27, and the Liberal Party’s grip on power appears tenuous. The NDP, a stable ally of the minority government since the 2021 election, no longer plans to support the Liberals.
Here we take a look at some of the scenarios that may play out in the coming weeks.
grace
Regardless of whether Trudeau resigns as Liberal leader, the government could seek a stay of execution to end all business in the House of Commons.
If Gov. Mary Simon honors the request for a stay, all pending legislation will effectively be null and void on the order.
When the House of Commons reconvenes, a new Throne Speech will set out the government’s new legislative agenda. Additionally, bills that were in progress before the suspension could be revived.
In 2008, then-Prime Minister Stephen Harper faced a high-profile vote of no confidence that could see the minority Conservative government defeated and replaced by a Bloc Quebecois-backed NDP-Liberal coalition government. Congress should have been adjourned.
vote of no confidence
The Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois and NDP have all said they are prepared to oust the Liberal government through a vote of no confidence.
If the House of Representatives passes the no-confidence motion, election campaigning could begin immediately.
New Brunswick Conservative MP John Williamson could have a chance to topple the government as early as January 30, with plans to push a motion through the Public Accounts Committee.
Conservatives plan to overthrow government again in January
Mr Williamson said he intended to introduce a motion of no confidence at next Tuesday’s Conservative-chaired committee. Mr Williamson said if Liberal committee members filibustered the motion, he would continue to schedule meetings throughout January.
Williamson said if the motion passes, it will be sent to the House of Commons for further debate and could be voted on as early as January 30.
The Liberals have weathered previous Conservative no-confidence motions with support from the NDP. That doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said his party would introduce its own no-confidence motion as soon as possible, regardless of who leads the Liberal Party.
The Conservatives, NDP and Bloc Québécois all have until March 26, when a motion of no confidence can be tabled, to vote against the bill.
However, it is up to the government’s House of Commons leaders to schedule that date, so it may not take place until mid-to-late March.
liberal leadership contest
If Prime Minister Trudeau heeds calls for the Liberal Party leader to resign, it will likely trigger a succession battle.
According to the Liberal Party constitution, the party executive must convene a meeting within 27 days of the resignation of the leader to establish the rules and infrastructure for the leadership election.
Under the constitution, the Liberal Party caucus can be consulted on who will serve as interim leader. A Dec. 23 letter from the party’s Atlantic caucus urged Prime Minister Trudeau to resign and to consult his caucus in the event of a leadership election.
There is no constitutional provision for a voting period for leadership elections, but candidates must collect the necessary signatures and submit a written notification of nomination to the party president at least 90 days before the vote.
A registered Liberal member is defined as someone who has been a member of the party for 41 days prior to voting and meets registration requirements.
All registered members have the right to vote, and ballots are weighted equally in each electoral district in Canada. Each district is worth 100 points.
New Brunswick Liberal MP Wayne Long told Power & Politics that some ministers privately agree that Justin Trudeau should resign as party leader, and that he has not publicly told ministers that Justin Trudeau should resign as party leader. He said he is encouraging them to come out. B.C. Liberal MP Ken Hardy said Chrystia Freeland is the best choice to replace Trudeau.
Prime Minister Trudeau remains in office
Under these circumstances, there is no mechanism within the Liberal Party for the caucus to remove Mr. Trudeau as leader, so the decision to remain or step down is left solely to Mr. Trudeau.
If Trudeau weathers the storm, he could lead his party into the next election, which must be held by October. Canadians could go to the polls sooner given the opposition’s pledge to hold an early election.
The Liberals appear to have a tough road ahead of them to secure the fourth mandate, with polls suggesting the Conservatives have held a significant lead for more than a year.
