Donald Trump’s threats to impose huge tariffs on Canadian exports and his trolling of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are important tactics in his negotiating strategy to extract the best trade terms for the United States, a longtime Trump official said. According to people who have worked with him or watched him closely.
President Trump has promised to impose 25% tariffs on all goods entering the United States from Canada and Mexico on January 20, his first day in office, unless countries curb the flow of drugs and immigrants across their borders.
The next president has since follow up He made the threat in a series of social media posts, calling Trudeau the “governor” and mocking him by referring to Canada as the “51st province.”
Analysts say the approach reflects the style of trademark negotiations that Mr. Trump has adopted over the years, both in business and during his presidency.
Stephen Moore, who served as President Trump’s economic adviser during his first term in the White House, said the president-elect is aiming to gain influence in renegotiating the trilateral trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico. He said there was.
“I don’t think there’s any question that that’s what he’s doing here,” Moore said in an interview with CBC News.
“I’ve been a candid and personal observer of Mr. Trump’s presidency, and I’ve had quite a few conversations with him about this,” said Moore, now a senior economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation.
“He uses the threat of tariffs to get countries to do what he thinks is in America’s national security and economic interests.”
The first period’s strategy “worked pretty well”
Moore, but No fans of tariffs He understands why President Trump is threatening to impose them on Canada and Mexico in terms of the economic impact.
“We want to make sure the trade deals we have are fair to American workers and fair to American businesses,” he said. “This was a strategy that worked very well in the first period and we hope it will continue to work in the second period.”
Trump used a one-two punch. Tariffs and provocations against Canada In 2018, during the negotiations leading to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). He has imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, threatened to impose tariffs on auto exports, and criticized Prime Minister Trudeau as “very dishonest and weak.”
Eugene B. Kogan taught advanced negotiation skills at Harvard University; written about Trump’s negotiating style suggests that the president-elect has long used tactics to smear his competitors as a way to gain influence.
“Prime Minister Trudeau is coming.” political troubles “I think President-elect Trump is feeling weak. I can smell the blood,” Kogan said in an interview with CBC News.
He said Trump is an “incredibly rational and brutally ruthless analyst of human frailty and political frailty, and that’s when he feels his greatest influence.” .
He believes Trump is working “almost around the clock” on ways to exploit his opponent’s weaknesses and turn them into opportunities for profit.
Even before taking office, the threat to impose harsh tariffs on such a long-time trading partner is emblematic of what Kogan describes as Trump’s “win-lose” approach to negotiations.
Power moves to establish leverage
“He wields power driven by a desire to establish his influence,” Kogan said. “The underlying message is, ‘You’re going to make things unpredictable for the other side, and the other side will be forced to make concessions.'”
Trump’s transition team did not respond to requests for comment.
A wide range of observers, from Wall Street to Bay Street to Congress, see President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on Canada and Mexico as a way to gain leverage in negotiations for the trilateral trade agreement, which is scheduled to be renewed in 2026.
“This latest tariff threat effectively marks the beginning of negotiations,” international asset management firm UBS Global said in a recent article. briefing notes.
“President Trump’s best and most likely use of tariffs is as a bargaining chip to force concessions from Canada in the renegotiation of CUSMA.” TD economists wrote Marc Ercolao.
“Right now, I think everything President Trump is doing on tariffs is a negotiation tool,” said Iowa Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley. According to Politico.
Scott Bessent, President Trump’s nominee for Treasury secretary, praised the president-elect’s use of tariffs as a “negotiating tool with trading partners.” fox news website Immediately after the election.
Mark Thiessen, chief speechwriter for former U.S. President George W. Bush and a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said last week that President Trump is seriously considering both imposing tariffs on Canada and using them in negotiations. Ta.
“If they come back and don’t do what he wants, he’s going to put tariffs on them,” Thiessen told Fox News. “I think he also knows that Justin Trudeau is incredibly weak.”
US President-elect Donald Trump has claimed on social media that he encouraged hockey icon Wayne Gretzky to run for Prime Minister during his Christmas visit. This is President Trump’s latest comment on Canadian politics, following his quips about Canada becoming the 51st US state and meeting with “Governor” Justin Trudeau.
Trump on Christmas Day Posted He encouraged Wayne Gretzky to “run for Prime Minister of Canada” and said the hockey legend “would win easily.” He is also mulling over the purchase of Greenland. take control of the Panama Canal.
President Trump’s comments on Canada, Mexico, Greenland and Panama are tied together by a common thread of countering Russia and China, an anonymous transition official told The Washington Post.
“This is not just random planning. There is a consistent connective tissue to all of this,” the newspaper quoted an official as saying. “Mr. Trump knows which levers to pull.”
Even if there is agreement that President Trump’s tactics regarding Canada are designed to gain influence, the big question remains unanswered: what is his ultimate goal?
Many suspect that all Trump wants is to crack down on fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration, the reasons he said were behind the tariff threat.
That view was given some credence Friday when both Prime Ministers Trudeau spoke out. I met two of President Trump’s Cabinet nominees. He was in Florida to explain Canada’s plan to improve border security.
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly and Finance Minister Dominique LeBlanc traveled to Florida on Friday to discuss potential tariffs with representatives of the incoming Trump administration.
A senior Canadian government official told CBC’s Katie Simpson that Trump’s obsession with the U.S. trade deficit with Canada came up during the meeting.
President Trump has repeatedly and inaccurately described the trade imbalance as U.S. subsidies to Canada.
Crude oil imports widen US trade deficit
The trade deficit, which amounted to approximately $75 billion in 2023, is primarily a result of Canada’s record high levels of crude oil exports to its southern neighbor.
The United States imported more oil from Canada last year than from all other countries combined, according to statistics from U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Moore said he believes President Trump’s goal is to make North America the “geopolitically most important region in the world for energy.”
In his 1987 book trading techniquesPresident Trump wrote, “Leverage: Don’t trade without leverage.” Nearly 40 years later, there’s plenty of evidence that he still lives up to that maxim.
