Dhaka, Bangladesh – Bangladesh will hold national elections tomorrow amid intense pressure from Western countries, which have warned for months that a boycott by the main opposition party, a crackdown on protesters and a lack of credibility in the vote would undermine the country’s democracy. We plan to implement this.
With the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) not contesting, Sunday’s result is all but foregone, with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League widely expected to win a fourth consecutive term.
But that victory may come with a loss. Political commentators and analysts say the way the elections are held could affect the South Asian nation’s diplomatic and economic relations with the West, especially the United States.
The Biden administration has repeatedly criticized the Bangladeshi government’s handling of the election, and in September declared visa restrictions on some individuals accused of subverting the democratic process. Bangladesh’s last two elections were similarly tainted. In 2014, the BNP boycotted the elections, and the 2018 vote was marred by allegations of massive voter fraud.
A further pushback from the United States could strain Bangladesh’s already fragile economy and bring deep-seated political unrest, witnessed during mass protests in recent months, to a boiling point.
The ruling Awami League tried to make the election competitive by fielding a number of what they themselves called “dummy candidates” and conducting a full-scale election campaign that ended early Friday morning.
On the other hand, BNP is declared a 48-hour nationwide strike. from Saturday after running its own campaign urging people not to vote. “Let’s boycott the elections in the interest of public interest, civil liberties and fundamental freedoms of the people,” Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, joint general secretary of the BNP and one of the few leaders out of prison, told the media. told. on friday.
He also urged the government not to “put the country in danger by forcing a dummy and unilateral election,” warning that “we cannot remain in power by deceiving the people in this way.” did.
Low voter turnout?
For many ordinary people, this election no longer has any meaning. “The Awami League is urging people to vote because they know their vote doesn’t matter because they will win anyway,” said Tanvir Siddiqui, a Dhaka businessman. “And the BNP is declaring a hartal (protest) to stop people from going to the booths on voting day! I have never seen anything more bizarre.”
Asked if he would vote in Sunday’s election, Siddiqui told Al Jazeera: “I don’t think so. Since the 2014 election, our votes are no longer counted. ”
Sharmeen Murshid, president of the reputable election monitoring group Broti, said her organization was also confused about what to do on Sunday. “Awami League vs. [Awami League] dummy candidate. What can we observe and how can we measure whether the election was free and fair?” she asked.
Murshid was also skeptical that there would be a reasonable turnout. “The AL has a huge base of supporters, but I don’t think even many of their own supporters will bother going to the polls,” she says.
However, turnout is a major concern for the Awami League. “In fact, this is our only concern right now,” said the party’s joint secretary-general Bahauddin Nasim.
Since Bangladesh transitioned from military rule to democracy in the early 1990s, the country has held two unilateral elections. His turnout in 1996, when the BNP came to power and the Awami League boycotted the elections, was only 28%.
When the tables turned in 2014, when the Awami League came to power and the BNP boycotted, only 39 percent of voters turned up at polling stations. In both cases, the boycotting opposition parties said even that figure was inflated.
But Nassim said he was hopeful of a high turnout, citing millions of new voters who he claimed were keen to exercise their democratic rights. According to data from the Election Commission, around 15.6 million new voters have registered since the last election in 2018, bringing the number of eligible voters in the country to 119.6 million.
“Most of the voters are very excited about voting for the first time,” Nassim said. “By holding the election as scheduled, we are giving them this opportunity.” Mr Nasim also said that the BNP was soon fading from people’s minds as it had not been able to win any significant seats in the last three elections.
“Also, 28 of the 44 registered political parties are participating in this election. There are 1,970 candidates for 300 seats in parliament. This will be a participatory election,” Nasim said. added.
How will the world react?
Zahed-ur-Rahman, a Dhaka-based political analyst, told Al Jazeera that the Awami League’s main objective in this election was to avoid a major opposition party in Bangladesh’s essentially two-party politics. He said his goal was to show the world that voter turnout could be high.
“This will help establish the narrative that Bangladesh’s democracy has evolved into a multi-party democracy and that the Awami League is very relevant but the BNP is no longer relevant,” Rahman said. “But we don’t know who will buy it. Probably not the common people or the whole world. Maybe the Awami League itself is not convinced by it either,” Rahman added.
Rahman described the election as “a mockery of step-by-step democracy.” He said he was more worried about the fallout than the results or process of the poll.
“Yes, the BNP is not participating, but elections do not mean voting day, but rather the entire period from the declaration of the election schedule. We have seen how they have suppressed the opposition through this process,” Rahman said.
In the past six weeks, the ruling Awami League party has launched what the US-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) calls. “Violent dictatorial repression” Opposed to the BNP and arrested thousands of leaders and activists. More than a dozen people died as a result of police violence.
Rahman said the United States and European countries should take these recent events into account when deciding whether to grant legitimacy to Hasina’s post-election government, “if we are to be true to our word of promoting democracy.” said.
However, Sreerada Dutta, a professor at the Jindal School of International Studies in Sonepat, India, told Al Jazeera that she did not expect a “dramatic reaction” from the US or other Western countries to Hasina’s victory.
India, Bangladesh’s neighbor and South Asia’s largest power, will almost certainly go to “congratulate Hasina and the Awami League” and bilateral relations will return to “normal”, Dutta said.
“The US will point out anomalies in the process, but if all other important neighbors like China, India and Russia accept the election verdict, there is nothing the US can do other than the sanctions it has already threatened. “There are very few,” she said.
