Mahmoud Zaiyat/AFP via Getty Images
Peacekeepers from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrol near the border wall with Israel, where a portrait of slain Hezbollah commander Imad Moghnieh is painted, in the southern Lebanese town of Kfarkira, October 9, 2023. .
Washington
CNN
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The United States and its allies have warned Lebanese militant group Hezbollah against escalating the war. israel conflict The move comes as the U.S. surrenders military assets to prevent a potential war from escalating, multiple U.S. officials and people briefed on the discussions told CNN.
Government officials believe Hezbollah is unlikely to join Hamas’s war against Israel in earnest at this point, and officials say the warnings are having an impact despite some escalation near the border. I believe.
Gen. Charles Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Wednesday that there is no indication of “additional participants” preparing to “engage” in Israel’s conflict.
The United States has sent messages to Hezbollah through a number of channels, including through the Lebanese government and Hezbollah-aligned Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament Navi Berri, not to get involved in the conflict. Mr. Berri was named by administration officials as an intermediary during a parliamentary briefing on Sunday, according to a person familiar with the press conference. The United States does not formally engage with organizations designated as terrorist groups, making Berri a natural conduit.
France also told Hezbollah, at Israel’s request, not to get involved in the war and escalate it further, or for Israel not to respond significantly, the people briefed on the talks said. . Those talks were also coordinated with the United States, sources said.
“Western allies with informal ties to Hezbollah have conveyed some messages,” a Western diplomat acknowledged, adding that Hezbollah’s response showed “its existing will not to escalate for the time being.”
“We are deeply concerned that Hezbollah has made the wrong decision and chosen to open a second front in this conflict,” a senior defense official said Monday, adding that “we are deeply concerned that Hezbollah has made the wrong decision and has chosen to open a second front in this conflict,” adding, “We are deeply concerned that Hezbollah has made the wrong decision and has chosen to open a second front in this conflict. We are working with partners from all over the world,” he added. ”
Hezbollah’s entry into the conflict would mark a significant escalation, as Hezbollah is a highly trained, well-armed and sophisticated military force that is also backed by Iran. However, current and former senior officials believe that Hezbollah is not keen on actively participating in the war. The main reason is that the risks to the group outweigh the potential rewards.
In addition to messages from U.S. officials urging Hezbollah to stay out of the conflict, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered the deployment of an aircraft carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean as a message of restraint from conflict, primarily against Hezbollah and its Iranian backers. . Go into war.
“To be clear, we did not move the aircraft carrier on behalf of Hamas,” National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters at the White House on Tuesday. “We moved the airline to send a clear message of deterrence to other states and non-state actors who may seek to escalate this war.”
president Joe Biden reinforced that message. In remarks from the White House Tuesday.
“Once again, to any country, any organization, anyone who is thinking of taking advantage of this situation, I say one word: Don’t do it.” stop it. “Our hearts may be broken, but our resolve is clear,” he said.
Hezbollah congratulated Hamas on Saturday’s major attack. There have also been rocket fire exchanges across the border with Israel, including one fired into Israel on Tuesday, but analysts say the attacks are a symbol of support rather than a precursor to serious military action. It seems to be a kind of gesture.
Furthermore, the Lebanese economy is in rapid decline, and the destructive and bloody war between Hezbollah and Israel will only further damage the Lebanese economy, resulting in It would be a huge political risk for Hezbollah, which makes the claim. Representing all Lebanese people as an important political entity.
Still, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has already increased its presence along the border with Lebanon to deal with potential threats, and has increased its presence in the disputed area, according to Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, an Israeli Defense Force (IDF) spokesman. It is said that tens of thousands of troops have been added in response to the conflict.
Violence escalated again on Wednesday, with an Israeli attack inside Lebanese territory after an anti-tank missile was fired at an IDF post near the Lebanese border. Hezbollah said it fired “guided missiles” at Israeli positions after three of its members were killed on Monday.
Mike Knights, a senior researcher at the Washington Institute who specializes in Iranian-backed proxy groups, said the group also sought to attract and hold Israeli forces to its northern border and to divide Israel’s missile defenses, thereby creating a negative atmosphere. It also provides military support.
“Logically speaking, if you are Hezbollah in Lebanon, you don’t want to be involved in this conflict,” Noam Rule, the former CIA director of Iranian national intelligence, said at a weekend intelligence conference. “You’re trying to tear the Israelis and Hamas to ribbons. Then you’re in a strong position.”
Hezbollah is not particularly involved in Gaza’s fate, former Central Command commander Frank McKenzie told CNN on Tuesday.
“Maybe there will be a little bit of an incident in Lebanon. As we’ve seen, small attacks back and forth, but enough to satisfy the honor of both sides,” McKenzie said. . “But there’s only one thing [Hezbollah’s leader Hassan] Nasrallah knows that if he comes in, the Israelis will come north and beat him to the ground. They’re going to knock the crap out of him like they knock the shit out of Gaza. ”
Still, Ruhl said the United States should make a firm assessment with “a degree of humility” about the risk of conflict spiraling beyond Israel’s borders.
McKenzie and Knights told CNN that that calculus could change if Israel perceives itself to be significantly weakened politically or militarily as the response to the Hezbollah attack unfolds. .
“If Israel gets stuck in Gaza, at that point Hezbollah in Lebanon could be tempted,” Knights said.
But for now, Hezbollah is “telling the Lebanese people, ‘We are trying to stay out of war,'” Knights said.
“That says something about them,” Knights said. “They’re afraid to mortgage their entire future on this.”
