Anniversaries like birthdays can be awkward events.
And the more that number grows, the more disturbing it becomes – especially when asked to commemorate the beginning of the massive genocide, misery and loss that Ukraine has experienced over the past two years.
Almost in passing, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said after signing a long-term security package with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Saturday that no one expected him to be here 24 months ago.
Although it was a partial reference to the well-worn claim that Russia and many in the West were expecting a quick Russian victory after its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Trudeau Perhaps unintentionally, he mentioned the disappointment suffered by Russia. It is at the center of wavering support among the world’s democracies.
Why is this still going on?
This weekend has been a flurry of military, economic, and political briefings and predictions dissecting where we’ve come from and where we’re going.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says despite “Russian misinformation and disinformation” and “regrettable” decisions by the federal Conservative Party, as world leaders celebrate the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Kiev. He said Canadians remain “overwhelmingly in favor” of supporting Ukraine. Vote against economic measures for Ukraine.
Little was said in Kiev, but the anniversary was implicit in the security package signed this weekend by Canada and Italy (and before that Britain, France, Germany and Denmark). With this, we have crossed the Rubicon River that Western democracies have passed through. After World War II, it has never had to be faced in such a visceral and essential way.
The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq at the beginning of the 21st century may be seen as a test of endurance through the long lens of history, rather than as a test of what will become of Ukraine.
The long, bloody, expensive and excruciating road ahead will test the staying power of society within Ukraine and perhaps even on a larger scale.
We are seeing signs of this in Ukraine too. Discussion on expanding military mobilization This is to fill the ranks that have decreased and become exhausted. There were some more opaque flashes within Russia, with Moscow over the weekend. Russian military wives protest After being told that their husbands were missing during the war.
war over morale
And experts say political messaging matters in this contest of wills.
“What the Russians want to do now is that everyone thinks the Ukraine case is hopeless,” said Elliott Cohen, director of the Arleigh A. Burke strategy at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former U.S. adviser. It’s about convincing them,” he says. State Department.
The narrative that permeates Western political discourse is that “Russians are relentless, with essentially unlimited resources and an infinite willingness to suffer. Now, I don’t think any of that is true. “I don’t think so, but,” he said. I think that’s a big part of what the Russians want us to believe. ”
Hostomelu Airport, on the outskirts of Kyiv, was one of the sites of the first fighting between Ukrainian forces and invading Russian forces two years ago. CBC’s Margaret Evans explains the significance of airport visits by leaders of countries such as Canada.
Speaking to Canadian reporters in Kiev after the virtual G7 summit on Saturday night, Trudeau was not willing to acknowledge that what we are seeing is a contest of wills, but rather that people are buying into the Kremlin’s propaganda. It was expressed that there is.
“We’ve seen the impact of Russian misinformation and disinformation on countries around the world,” Trudeau said, highlighting how Canada’s $3 billion security assistance package demonstrates the depth of its commitment. emphasized.
“I just finished a conference call, a virtual video conference, with other G7 leaders, where we were all united and filled with determination to continue to work with Ukraine and continue to work to ensure that Russia does not win this war. There is.”
Dominique Aller, director of Ukrainian studies at the University of Ottawa, said there are signs of growing European resolve, but questions how much staying power Canada has.
He cited the federal government’s reluctance to increase military production and its steadfast refusal to say whether it would try to meet NATO’s 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) standard for defense spending. pointed out.
Europeans no longer think of Ukraine as a “one-off” and are beginning to recognize and prepare for a long war, rather than just hoping it will end tomorrow, Aller said.
Importance of the US position
Emily Harding, director of the Intelligence, National Security and Technology Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the recent death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny and the Kremlin’s imminent launch of a nuclear test device into orbit He said the revelation that it was possible was an unmistakable signal. President Vladimir Putin wanted to instill fear in Europe.
“The fact that President Putin authorized this just before the Munich war. [Security] The conference is very interesting,” Harding said during a recent online panel discussion at the center commemorating the second anniversary of the Ukraine war.
“It’s a pretty bold message that we’re on the second anniversary of this war, and one that he, his foremost political commentator, feels he can eliminate with little repercussions…I I think that was a very frightening message for many people.”And we hope to get there as well.” ”
It is doubtful that the United States, Ukraine’s largest military and economic supporter, has the strength of will for the long term.
Recently, there has been a lot of attention to the Congressional Republicans veto This is to go along with the latest $60 billion US aid package being proposed for Ukraine. Harding said the Biden administration’s gradual approach helped create the situation we have today.
“The U.S. response has been erratic,” he said of the debate within the administration about which weapons systems, if donated, might trigger a Russian response. “I guess you could say, unscrupulously, that we’re tinkering while Rome burns.”
Harding said that as part of an ongoing contest of wills, the US-led West cannot allow Russia to “keep moving forward without retreating.”
