The G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, which begins on Monday, is already influenced by evolving geopolitical events, regardless of host Brazil’s official theme of fighting hunger, poverty and inequality.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in Brazil following the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru’s capital Lima, where much of his conversation with other countries focused on preparations for Donald Trump’s inauguration as president and what will happen next. He admitted that the discussion was about whether it would be possible. He accomplished that before taking over the White House.
“I think there are elements that will probably accelerate certain things in the coming months for some people,” Trudeau said at the closing press conference of the APEC summit.
The G20 is also an exception, especially considering multiple media reports that US President Joe Biden has decided to lift restrictions on Ukraine and allow it to attack deep into Russian territory using US-provided weapons. Probably not. According to multiple reports, Ukraine plans to take advantage of this policy shift and launch its first long-range attack sooner rather than later.
“Defense and security issues don’t necessarily feature prominently on the agenda, but they have to be relevant in some way,” said Guy Thibault, retired Canadian lieutenant general and chair of the National Defense Association Association. said. the former deputy chief of defense staff said in an interview with CBC News.
“Given what we are seeing and the concerns about international instability caused by conflict; [whether] Whether it’s the Middle East, whether it’s Ukraine, whether it’s… [what] “As we look at the Indo-Pacific region, inevitably these things will be discussed,” he said.
Given the president-elect’s lukewarm support for Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia in February 2022, there is no guarantee that President Trump will not reverse Biden’s decision within his first two months in office.
“Let’s be very frank: Our allies around the world will not be able to replace a complete U.S. withdrawal from support for Ukraine,” Trudeau said.
This is the same challenge for any agreement signed in Rio over the next two days. No one knows what will happen to these decisions on January 20, when President Trump takes office.
But even reaching an agreement without Trump at the summit will be difficult. The G20, the world’s 20 largest economies, is a diverse group of friends, rivals, and even enemies.
“Rising tensions”
Relations between Canada and China are strained and unlikely to improve quickly even if President Trump takes power in the US
“There will be another trade war with China,” said Bina Najibullah, deputy director of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.
“There will be heightened tensions over Taiwan… relations will become even more volatile and unpredictable. Canada will need to monitor that closely because we could be caught in the middle again. ”
The federal government announced Wednesday that it would order TikTok to close its operations in Canada, but Canadians can still download and use the app. On Thursday, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said the federal government was “preoccupied with the activities of the TikTok Canadian entity.”
Relations between Canada and India are truly frosty. Then there’s the Canadian government’s feelings toward Russia.
“My level of trust in Vladimir Putin is now probably at an all-time low,” Trudeau said.
The Russian president will not attend the G20 again this year, which will free the host country from the troubling prospect of acting on an international warrant for Putin’s arrest. In his place, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will represent Russia.
Prime Minister Trudeau has a number of one-on-one meetings scheduled with other leaders, including Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. The impending renegotiation of the free trade agreement between Canada, the United States, and Mexico did not rule out the possibility of excluding Mexico from the negotiations, especially if Prime Minister Trudeau does not match tariffs on China with those of Canada and Mexico. This is probably the biggest concern. US
Trudeau is also scheduled to meet with Biden on Monday, a meeting reminiscent of the prime minister’s farewell conversation with Barack Obama at the 2016 G20, before Trump first took office. It might become something.
