ottawa –
Members of Parliament, diplomats and political staff gathered around Parliament House to anxiously review the preliminary results of the U.S. presidential election, which everyone agreed would have huge implications for Canada and the world.
“There’s a lot of tension in the room tonight,” said Gary Keller, former chief of staff to former Conservative foreign secretary John Baird.
“This could have a huge impact on our economy and society.”
American voters cast their votes Tuesday between starkly different visions for the country’s future: former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Both men are proposing policies that could disrupt commerce with Ottawa’s closest trading partners and have deep implications for Canada’s defence.
As the results streamed onto the big screen, Keller said he was worried about the “knife-edge” election.
“No matter who wins, Canadian businesses need to prepare for some challenges over the next four years,” said Keller, vice president of government relations firm StrategyCorp.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrives in Keflavik, Iceland, June 25, 2023, and is greeted by Hrinul Gudjonsson, the Icelandic ambassador to Canada, and Janet Menzies, the Canadian ambassador to Iceland. Prime Minister Trudeau is visiting Iceland to attend a meeting of Scandinavian prime ministers. ‘Meeting. (Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick)
He noted that both Trump and Harris are promoting protectionist policies, which could pose a serious threat to Canada’s economy.
President Trump has promised a flat 10% tariff, which the Canadian Chamber of Commerce believes could cost the Canadian economy about $30 billion a year.
In 2020, Harris was one of only 10 senators to vote against the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement. He recently stated that the CUSMA agreement does not adequately protect American jobs.
Before a results watch party began at bars around Parliament Hill, the federal Liberals told reporters that Ottawa is in a better position to negotiate trade with the next U.S. president than it was with Trump’s first term. He said he spent several months laying the foundation for the project.
At that point, as President Trump called for an end to the NAFTA trade agreement, the Liberals adopted a “Team Canada” approach that engaged prime ministers, mayors, unions, and business leaders with their U.S. counterparts.
This push resulted in Canada retaining many of its key accesses under CUSMA. Whoever takes over the White House will oversee a review of the agreement scheduled for 2026.
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly says her government will use a Team Canada approach to protect Canada’s interests, and is in contact with other foreign ministers and world leaders about how to work with the next president. said.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks to the media flanked by Defense Minister Anita Anand and Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly during the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, Tuesday, July 11, 2023. (Canadian Press/Adrian Wilde)
“I think we have one of our strongest and most important relationships as a nation with the United States,” Jolie said.
Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne said the goal of the past few months has been to define Canada as an important and strategic partner, not just a friendly neighbor to the north.
“Our friends of the United States’ focus is on national security. National security and economic security are one. Today, there is a growing understanding that our strategic relationship serves the national security of North America. I think so,” Champagne said.
However, Rick Tachuk, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Canada, said a variety of irritants in the bilateral relationship could result in the United States restricting trade, including energy, defense and digital services regulations.
“There are a number of critical issues that need to be partially resolved before the 2026 CUSMA review,” he said. He added that the composition of the House of Representatives will also have a major impact on America’s economic policy toward Canada.
Hrinur Gudjonsson, Iceland’s ambassador to Canada, said his country was impressed with Ottawa’s ability to maintain strong trade ties during President Trump’s first term.
The U.S. and Canadian flags are seen on a table during an Independence Day celebration at L’Ornado, the residence of the U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Tuesday, July 4, 2023, in Ottawa. (Spencer Colby/Canadian Press)
He said that while he hopes for a good relationship with Trump and Harris, Japan is wondering how President Trump will approach the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military alliance.
President Trump has been highly critical of NATO allies, particularly Canada, which has not met agreed spending targets, accusing them of failing to meet their responsibilities and calling the alliance “outdated.”
Canada does not intend to reach its goal of spending 2% of GDP on defense until at least 2032.
Harris said her administration will honor the Mutual Defense Agreement and continue its steadfast support to Ukraine.
Defense Minister Bill Blair said he believes both governments will recognize the efforts Canada is making to increase defense spending.
“It takes time to build new battleships, it takes time to build the new submarines we need, it takes time to deliver the aircraft we need,” Prime Minister Blair said.
Gudjonsson said concerns about NATO likely made Europe more aligned with Democrats than Republicans.
“Kamala Harris would be very happy if Icelanders voted for her,” he said. “I think that’s generally the case in Europe.”
Several European diplomats declined to comment on the campaign, instead sipping beer or cocktails and watching the results anxiously.
Liberal MP Jean Yip said she was nervous about the outcome.
“I’m hoping for the best. I believe we’ll be OK,” the Toronto MP said.
“We just want the best possible president for Americans and for Canadians,” she said, without specifying who that would be.
Jolly previously noted that his government has worked with three different U.S. administrations over the past decade, building relationships with both Republicans and Democrats.
But it is not a given that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government will represent Canada in trade negotiations. The instability in parliament could lead to a snap election before negotiations begin in earnest.
Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poièvre said on social media Tuesday that the Conservative government would “push for intense negotiations” with the U.S. government on softwood lumber and the Buy American policy.
During the question period, Mr. Poilievre attacked the Liberal Party for failing to reach a deal with the United States to eliminate tariffs on softwood timber and accused the government of capitulating to the United States in the final round of trade negotiations.
Trudeau responded in French that during the CUSMA negotiations, “It was the Conservative Party, including Stephen Harper, who encouraged us to withdraw and not offend the American people.”
“On the contrary, we stood up for ourselves, protected supply management, protected steel and aluminum workers and protected jobs across this country,” the Prime Minister said.
U.S. Ambassador to Canada David Cohen said in an interview that he expects trade relations to continue with little disruption no matter who wins the election.
“I’ve never heard a president, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, say they want to blow up the $3.4 billion-a-day trade relationship that exists between the United States and Canada.” said Cohen.
“Therefore, the Team Canada approach Canada is taking is, as I have said before and I will say it again, a powerful tool to help us reach and communicate with our various stakeholders and constituents. It is an outreach mechanism that is responsible for nurturing and growing the relationship between the United States and Canada, regardless of the presidential election.
Cohen added that Canada is the largest trading partner for 36 states and no administration wants to jeopardize the millions of jobs tied to cross-border trade.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.
— With files from Kelly Geraldine Malone
