The loss of a Toronto-area constituency that the Liberal party has held tightly for decades has cast doubt and doubt over the political outlook of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada.
According to a Radio-Canada source, officials from Trudeau’s team called caucus members on Tuesday to solicit their input on the party’s direction following its unexpected loss in the Toronto-St. Paul riding.
But with Trudeau once again signaling his intention to stay in office and poll after poll showing Canadians are tired of him and his party, can the Liberals do anything at this point to regain voters’ good graces?
“I don’t think there’s anything he can do,” said David Collett, CEO of Abacus Data, which has watched the Liberal polling numbers trend downward over the past year.
He suggested external factors, such as November’s US presidential election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, could cause voters to reconsider the Libertarian Party.
“There are external events that are forcing voters to look at Trump in a different light,” he said. “I think the pandemic, for example, has had that effect on a lot of political leaders. This was a crisis that forced us to look at our leaders in a different light.”
“i don’t think so [the Liberals] “I want Trump to win. But politically, that may be the only way he can win. But I’m still not convinced.”
Dan Arnold, chief strategist at polling firm Polara, said other external events, such as the summer’s wildfires, could bring the issue of climate change back to the forefront and work in the Liberal party’s favor, but added that such external events are unpredictable.
Arnold, a former Liberal Party research and publicity director, suggested the party should look to history and try to change the debate.
“I think what the Liberal Party can do is put forward new policy proposals and put forward things that are actually controversial. [Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre],” He said.
“That’s one of the things that saved Brian Mulroney in 1988 – he had a big election on free trade, which distracted the public from a lot of the discontent with the Mulroney government.”
Arnold said if the Liberal Party had the funds, it would be effective to roll out that message in an advertising campaign.
“They don’t seem to be based so much on financial gain,” he said.
“But if you can spend $10 million on advertising, if you can get the ad directly to a target audience, and if you have a compelling message, you can change public opinion.”
Changing negative perceptions ‘very difficult’: Pollster
Collett said the Toronto-St. Paul result and a year of poor support for the Liberal party show people are unhappy with the direction of the country and want change.
“I think voters have already made up their minds about how they feel about the prime minister, and once people have a negative view of the prime minister, or of anything, it’s very difficult to change their mind, especially when someone they don’t like very much is trying to persuade them to change their mind,” he said.
Arnold said he did not believe a cabinet reshuffle or a shake-up of the prime minister’s inner circle would change that perception.
“Who the minister of culture and heritage is going to be is probably not going to have a big impact on Canadians,” he said.
“If 40% of Canadians can’t name a cabinet minister, [staffer] There has been much less reporting from Downing Street.”
Trudeau has maintained he intends to remain as party leader.
“My entire team and I have a lot more hard work to do to deliver tangible, real progress that Canadians can see and feel,” he said Tuesday.
Collette said it’s not clear that the Liberal party’s fortunes would change if Trudeau were to change his mind and step down.
“I think they’re in a deep hole,” he said.
“Canadians have a very clear view of their prime minister. That’s probably not going to change, and there’s nothing Justin Trudeau can do about that. But frankly, with any of the names we test, we don’t know how the public is going to react to a hypothetical leader that people don’t know much about in the first place.”
The party’s roadmap is unclear after losing a historically safe Liberal seat in Toronto to Conservative candidate Don Stewart by 590 votes.
A source who spoke to Radio-Canada on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly said the prime minister’s office was calling caucus members to gauge morale after the defeat. Trudeau himself did not make the calls, the source said.
Liberal MPs have publicly spoken about the need for soul-searching.
“I think a lot of us have to take a step back, shake our heads and try a little harder,” Immigration Minister Mark Miller said Wednesday.
“Stop thinking about yourself and get back on your horse and fight for Canadians.”
Immigration Minister Marc Miller said “many of us have to step back and shake our heads” following the Liberal Party’s defeat in the Toronto-St. Paul by-election. Miller believes Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is the best person to take on Conservative Leader Pierre Poirievre in the next election, calling Poirievre a “fake” and likening him to a “slogan-shouting wrestling manager from the 1980s.”
Karina Gould, a cabinet minister who also serves as the party’s Ontario campaign co-chair, called Tuesday’s election results a “wake-up call.”
“We need to introspect,” she told CBC. Power and politics.
“We need to clarify our message,” said Liberal MP Judy Sgro, a longtime member of both the ruling and opposition parties.
“A year is a lifetime for a politician. Things can change dramatically,” she said.
Trudeau ‘absolutely’ should stay: Miller
However, some in the caucus are already whispering calls for a change in leadership.
Several Liberal members, who spoke to CBC on the condition they not be named because they are not authorized to speak publicly about party politics, also suggested Trudeau should resign.
“Does he have to resign? I find it hard to see any other option,” one lawmaker said.
Miller said Wednesday that Trudeau “absolutely” should stay in office and face Poirievre in the next election, likening the prime minister to a slogan-shouting 1980s wrestling manager.
“But this isn’t a WWF match, this is reality. Canadians are suffering and we need to fight for them,” Miller said.
Immigration Minister Marc Miller has publicly defended Justin Trudeau following his unexpected defeat in the Toronto by-election that is widely seen as a referendum on the prime minister’s leadership.
Poirierbre took to social media to celebrate his party’s “stunning comeback” while urging Trudeau to call an election.
“This is the verdict: Prime Minister Trudeau cannot continue like this,” he posted on X on Tuesday. “A carbon tax election must be called now.”
The next election is scheduled for next fall. For now, Trudeau’s minority government is supported by the NDP. Reliability and Supply Agreement.
The deal sees the New Democrats supporting the Liberals in a confidence vote in exchange for working on NDP priorities like dental care, and allows the NDP to leave the party and call an early election if it believes the Liberals have not upheld the agreement.
Arnold pointed to the premier of Ontario as an example of someone who was able to change people’s minds before an election.
“You know, Doug Ford was extremely unpopular in his first year in office. He’s certainly been able to bounce back and freshen up his image a little bit,” he said.
“But ultimately, a government seeking a fourth term in power will only be able to fulfil its responsibilities if the people are not satisfied with the alternatives.”
Collette said there is a slight chance that voters may become dissatisfied with Poirievre as election day approaches.
“There’s always the possibility that something will happen and someone will become so untenable that people will embrace the devil they know as the devil they know,” he said.
“Could that be possible? No. Could that be possible? Probably not.”