NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s decision to withdraw his party from the confidence and supply agreement with the ruling Liberal Party has brought great uncertainty to Canadian politics and may lead to an earlier than scheduled federal election.
With Trudeau’s bloc holding a minority of seats in Parliament, the Liberal government is in a precarious position as it can no longer rely on the NDP for support through a vote of confidence.
But that does not mean the government will immediately succumb to a vote of confidence – a vote that will determine whether it has the backing of the House of Commons.
The government could negotiate some kind of deal with the NDP and other opposition parties to get enough votes to pass a bill through Parliament and avoid an election. The opposition could support government policies piecemeal, rather than through a formal agreement like the one that was scrapped today.
Is Canada heading for an election?
Not yet, but it may come sooner than expected.
Singh’s decision to abandon the agreement that has kept the Liberal Party on a strong footing over the past two-plus years has arguably put the government in an even more precarious position.
Under the confidence-supply arrangement, the Liberals can essentially govern as if they had a majority government.
The agreement was meant to be in force until June 2025, meaning elections were not expected to take place until next summer at the earliest.
The future of the Liberal government is currently in jeopardy, with a vote of no confidence that could bring it down at any time when Parliament reconvenes later this month.
In a campaign-style social media video, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced the end of the supply and confidence agreement with Premier Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government, which was due to run until June 2025.
Singh is abandoning the pact with the Liberal Party (known in parliament as SACA) but that doesn’t necessarily mean the party is ready to campaign – a costly endeavour for a party that has raised far less money in fundraising than the two major parties.
Canada’s fixed-date election law stipulates that the vote will take place in October 2025, but that date would become meaningless if a majority of MPs vote against the Liberals or Prime Minister Justin Trudeau asks the governor general to call an early election.
Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University, said the Liberal government is likely to stay in power until it delivers its next budget in the spring.
“If I were a betting man – and I may regret saying this – I think there will be a budget election,” Turnbull said, suggesting Canadians could go to the polls after the budget is tabled in March or April.
Turnbull said calling an election in mid-2025 would give the NDP enough time to distance itself from its unpopular alliance with the Liberal government and raise the funds and resources to run an effective campaign focused on keeping the Conservatives out of power.
How had the Liberal Party managed to stay in power until then?
Under Canada’s Westminster parliamentary democracy, the prime minister and his or her government must have the confidence of a majority of members of Parliament to remain in power.
Their confidence may also be tested by a vote of confidence. The government may designate any vote as a vote of confidence, and bills relating to the government’s budget are usually considered votes of confidence. Individual members of parliament may also bring a motion of no confidence at any time in an attempt to bring down the government.
If the Liberal government wants to win those votes, Trudeau and his cabinet will need to convince at least one of the major opposition parties to join their cause.
Conservative leader Pierre Poirievre has signalled he will not support the government. His party’s popularity is high in opinion polls and he wants elections to be held quickly. He tabled a motion of no confidence in the government in the spring, but it was easily defeated.
“Canadians need a carbon tax election now,” Poirierbre said in a social media post Wednesday after Singh announced the repeal of SACA.
That leaves the Liberal party’s potential partners in the coming months as the separatist Bloc Québécois and the NDP.
The Liberals hold 154 of the 338 seats in Parliament. To win a majority of 169 seats, they would need the support of either the NDP (24 seats) or the Bloc (32 seats). The Greens have just two seats, giving them little leverage in a confidence vote.
Why would the NDP back the Liberals again?
It remains unclear whether the NDP will support the Liberals in the upcoming confidence vote, and NDP national leader Anne McGrath told CBC News last week that the party wants to see more from the Liberal government before the next election.
That means the NDP could give itself limited support in a vote of confidence in this parliament in exchange for further policy commitments.
The NDP is already pressing the government to expand social security through new drug and dental benefits.
But the current drug benefit scheme is very limited, covering only contraceptives and diabetes medications, and the NDP says it wants a stronger scheme.
“I encourage others to focus on politics, but I would like to point out that I truly hope the NDP doesn’t focus on politics, but remains focused on what we can do for Canadians, just as we have been for the past few years,” Trudeau said.
“There’s still work to be done to continue the dental rollout, and I hope the NDP will continue to fight for it this fall,” Trudeau said.
There are other elements of the SACA that are yet to be implemented, including legislation to establish some sort of “safe long-term care law,” which the agreement states would guarantee seniors “the care they deserve, no matter where they live.”
The Liberal-New Democrat agreement also calls for changes to the electoral system, including extending “election day” to three days and allowing people to vote at any polling station in their constituency, policies that were not in place before Singh’s change of policy.
The Liberals may be able to negotiate the NDP’s support through the fall and winter in exchange for addressing the issues the NDP cares most about.
What is Trudeau’s message to the NDP?
Trudeau told a Liberal cabinet meeting last week that his government’s priority this fall is a renewed focus on policy.
Questions have been swirling around Trudeau’s future following his defeat in the Toronto-St. Paul by-election earlier this summer, but the prime minister said his top priority is listening to Canadians’ concerns and working on legislative solutions.
The government has already begun cracking down on low-wage temporary foreign workers due to concerns about an out-of-control immigration system, and it has imposed high tariffs on Chinese-made electric cars to protect a nascent Canadian industry from what it calls unfair foreign competition.
Trudeau is also moving forward with plans for a national school lunch program, announcing the first contract for such an initiative in Newfoundland and Labrador on Wednesday.
Following NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s online announcement that his party was terminating its Supply and Confidence Agreement with the Liberal Party, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he wants the NDP to “remain focused” on delivering results for Canadians, not politics.
Trudeau suggested Wednesday he was not eyeing an election anytime soon and called on Singh to support policies that have been supported by the two progressive parties for the past two years.
“I’m going to let other parties focus on politics. I’m going to focus on actually delivering what Canadians told me they need this summer,” Trudeau said.
“I am absolutely committed to staying true to the NDP’s core values of making sure Canadians have the support they need and avoiding the austerity, cuts and damage that the Conservatives would do if given the opportunity.”
- Have a question about the NDP ending its supply and confidence agreement with the Liberals? Email us at ask@cbc.ca.
