The military rarely measures its success by the roads it pavers or the railways it builds, but that may be the standard Russia uses in occupied Ukraine, where major infrastructure projects are underway or planned. .
For the past few months, Moscow-based media have reported on the construction of a new railway line between Russia’s Rostov-on-Don, near the Sea of Azov and the border with Ukraine, and Yakumiivka, about 10 kilometers north of the Crimean River. peninsula.
Experts in Europe and North America say the plan and other potential public works projects are part of a broader attempt by the Kremlin to tie captured territories more closely to Russia and to encourage Western countries backing Ukraine to do so. explains that they need to pay the price. Careful attention.
Details are scant, but the new rail line will mainly pass through the southern regions of occupied Ukrainian territory, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya oblasts, passing through the major cities of Mariupol and Melitopol.
Russian and Ukrainian militaries may be locked in a deadly battle with little movement on the front lines, but one expert says that behind-the-line operations (and associated economic reconstruction) are becoming increasingly important. The house spoke.
“Even after the battle, I think Putin can still win the war,” said Matthew Schmidt, an Eastern Europe expert at the University of New Haven in Connecticut.
“If Ukraine does not become a modern, economically stable and prosperous country, it will eventually exercise the kind of political control over it that President Putin has tried and failed to achieve through military means. right.”
Schmidt said the merger “underscores something that countries like Canada and the United States absolutely have to overcome.” [on] Support Ukraine economically with support from donor funds and large-scale foreign direct investment. ”
Yulia Kovalyov, Ukraine’s ambassador to Canada, has been making similar arguments to political and business circles for months, recently defending the modernization of the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement.
“This stability and security will be a catalyst for increased investment and economic cooperation, creating jobs for both countries,” Kovaliv told the House of Representatives Standing Committee on International Trade.
He noted that Ukraine begins with a lack of infrastructure due to widespread destruction from Russian bombs and missiles.
“Infrastructure is one of the hardest hit areas, including critical infrastructure,” she testified.
“It was only last winter that 50 percent of the entire electricity grid, which is part of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, was damaged. This paves the way for the structural reconstruction of the sectors, and we We welcome companies to cooperate with Ukraine to rebuild the infrastructure sector. ”
The US sent Ukraine $107 billion, making it by far the country’s largest donor of economic and military aid, according to a tracking study conducted by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
On Friday, Britain announced a mainly military aid package worth C$4.2 billion. However, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government is one of the largest contributors to Ukraine, with total support pledges reaching C$15.8 billion.
Meanwhile, Canada has provided Ukraine with $4.85 billion in loan aid in addition to $2.4 billion in military aid.
Allied aid commitments are beginning to decline.
However, analysts at the Kiel Institute noted that allied pledges have declined significantly as the war drags on.
The Germany-based institute’s report dated December 7, 2023 said, “Newly pledged aid will reach a new low from August to October 2023, compared to the same period in 2022. “It has decreased by almost 90%,” he said.
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (IFSW) also points to increased Russian investment in occupied territories.
“Russian regional and occupation authorities continue infrastructure projects aimed at integrating occupied Ukraine into Russia,” the IFSW said in a situation report.
Oleksandr Mushenko, director of the Center for Research in Military Jurisprudence in Kyiv, said that building a railway through the occupied territory of Ukraine is a clear military obligation for Russia.
“They are considering alternative routes to the Kerch Bridge,” Musiyenko told CBC News, referring to parallel bridges (one a four-lane road and one a double-track railway) connecting occupied Crimea and Russia. Mentioned.
Much of Moscow’s munitions are dropped on the bridge, which is a frequent target for Ukrainian forces.
“They are afraid of what will happen if the Ukrainians succeed in destroying the structures,” Musiyenko said.
Musiyenko said it was also clear that the Kremlin wanted to show the people of the occupied territories how it would “rebuild and restore” their territory.
The flip side of the coin, he said, is that no matter what Russia builds, Ukraine will try to destroy it with long-range missiles and drone strikes.
Speaking before the House Defense Committee in December, Rand Corp. expert Howard Schatz said Western countries were in a good position to invest in Ukraine.
Historically, the kind of aid that the US, UK and Canada have provided has only moved the investment needle so far.
“Private investment that Ukraine mobilizes from new and existing foreign investors, residents and, perhaps especially, the Ukrainian diaspora is essential for a successful recovery,” Schatz said, adding that investments include He pointed out that it is necessary to combine the security of
“All that can be said about security now is that a permanent security posture supported by Western powers will help Ukraine deter and defend against future Russian attacks. But it will do much more than that. .Historically we have seen things like that. This arrangement gives investors the confidence to take risks and make long-term commitments.”
