New article says long-term coronavirus infection could affect 5.8 million children in the U.S. Other estimates … [+]
Long Corona could affect 5.8 million children in the US, according to an article published Wednesday in the journal Pediatrics. That’s a big number. This is also in contrast to other published estimates of the long-lasting coronavirus in children. So who is right?
Let’s start by exploring how the author of this article arrived at that number. As with any estimate, they started with some basic assumptions. They hypothesized that 20% of Covid-19 cases occur in children and that the prevalence of long-term Covid, an acute sequela of SARS-CoV-2, in children is 10-20%.
according to Data provided by: KFF, As of the end of January 2024, the cumulative number of people infected with the new coronavirus in the United States was approximately 105 million. If 20% of those cases occurred in children, and 20% of those cases developed long-term COVID-19 infection, about 4.2 million children in the United States would be affected. This is quite close to the numbers cited by the authors.
However, it is unclear how the authors determined that 10% to 20% of children with COVID-19 will develop long-term COVID-19 infection. They say the experts “reviewed the relevant pediatric research literature and summarized the findings.” That’s all we really know. 98 reviewed articles listed. Presumably, after careful review of these papers, the authors determined that the prevalence was between 10 and 20%. However, there is no information as to why these articles were selected and, conversely, why other articles were not selected.
So what have other researchers concluded? The numbers vary widely. Dr. Suchitra Rao, lead author of the current report, said these different estimates may result from “different populations being evaluated, different definitions of PASC/long corona, and variations in study design.” It pointed out.
In fact, some studies estimate that the incidence of long-term COVID-19 infection in children is relatively low.For example, data Published by CDC It suggests that the prevalence of long-term COVID-19 infection in children is 1.3%. This figure comes from a survey of about 7,500 people and is significantly different from his 10-20% rate used by the author of this article. At a prevalence of 1.3%, the number of children affected by long-term coronavirus could be close to 500,000, a much smaller number. Interestingly, some authors of the current paper have stated their conclusions in previously published papers. JAMA Pediatrics “Your child’s PASC seems to be low.”
When asked about the CDC data, Dr. Rao said the CDC study “used a more specific definition” of the long-lasting coronavirus, which likely resulted in lower prevalence estimates. I commented that it was. That’s a valid point. Without a standard definition, it is difficult to compare results.
It is worth noting that Pediatrics This is a review, not a study.according to Journal website, review articles provide an overview of a topic. Additionally, this article is not a systematic review or meta-analysis. For publications of this type, authors must clearly state the criteria for inclusion or exclusion of the literature being evaluated. This allows readers to evaluate information more critically.
Prolonged COVID-19 remains one of the most troubling aspects of COVID-19. Numerous symptoms affecting different organ systems have been reported. Researchers still cannot predict who is at risk of developing these debilitating sequelae. And clinicians are still unable to provide relief. The presence of prolonged COVID-19 infection in children is a major public health issue that must be addressed. However, the extent of the problem remains unclear.
