Washington –
Two years ago, the new U.S. ambassador to Canada arrived in snow-covered Ottawa for the first time thinking he knew everything about America’s rocky relationship with its trusted northern neighbor.
However, David Cohen quickly realized something was wrong.
“When I started traveling across Canada, I was surprised to see the widespread loss of trust in the United States on the Canadian side,” Cohen told business leaders in Canada’s capital last month.
“The constant refrain was, ‘What happened to our relationship with the United States? Did we do something wrong?'”
South of the border, Mr. Cohen’s bosses in the Oval Office were keenly aware of the lingering foreign policy scars his sharp-elbowed predecessor, Donald Trump, had left on some of America’s historically close allies.
Kirsten Hillman was in for a surprise of her own.
It was early 2023, and Cohen’s counterpart in Washington, Hillman, was meeting at the White House with senior U.S. officials preparing for Joe Biden’s first presidential visit to Canada.
She heard something she wasn’t expecting. The president’s top advisers were talking seriously and excitedly about their plans — not just the usual formalities, but how to ensure they accomplished something bigger with this trip. .
“‘What is this trip for? Why are we doing this? What do we want to get out of it? Not in terms of trade, but in terms of the relationship between the United States and its northern neighbor. ?’” Hillman recalled Biden’s team saying.
This, she realized, would be a real recovery exercise, not just a whimsical trip aimed at placating a troublesome foreign government. They don’t just say nice things, they mean them.
Yes, the 24 hour visit was short. But it scratched a uniquely Canadian itch, helped to dispel public misgivings about the United States, and became the centerpiece of what Hillman calls a “watershed year” in bilateral relations.
“That was really noteworthy because I think it was very beneficial for Canada, it led to a focus on us as a strategic ally,” she said.
“They were able to break out of their own particular silos and say, “We’re so lucky to have this neighbor to the north. At that point, we were able to understand, ‘Are we doing enough in this relationship?’
How long that ambition can be sustained is an open question.
Contrary to all conventional political wisdom, Trump once again appears to be on track to win the Republican presidential nomination.
That’s despite the enormous legal burden, with 91 felony charges filed in New York, Georgia, Florida and Washington, D.C., and the Colorado Supreme Court’s ruling this week that the state is ineligible to participate in the presidential primary. This is despite the fact that the judgment was
President Trump’s incumbent Democratic rivals have lost traction in the election despite several key victories in Congress and clear evidence that the U.S. economy is doing better than many voters believe. I can’t seem to get it.
A CNN poll released earlier this month found the current president’s approval rating at 37%, the lowest since taking office and on par with the weeks following the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. The only one who did was Trump himself.
Robert Kagan, whose seminal 2018 book The Jungle Grows Back warned of the dire consequences of American isolationism, published an essay in Washington last month aimed at shaking American voters from their reverie.・Contributed to the post.
“America has a clear path to dictatorship, and that path is getting shorter each day,” Kagan wrote under a montage of President Trump’s face superimposed on a bust of a famous Roman emperor. Ta.
He concluded that Americans “want some kind of intervention to help us escape the consequences of collective cowardice, complacent and willful ignorance, and above all, a deep lack of commitment to liberal democracy.” I concluded.
Canada is not the only country wondering how many devoted friends the United States will have in the future.
With Republicans in Congress opposed to sending much-needed military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine (the bill already exceeds $75 billion), experts say it is a powerful stabilizing force. I am concerned about the future without a strong US foreign policy.
Biden recently returned to Washington, D.C., alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, hoping a personal visit would help break the impasse, saying, “It’s amazing how far we’ve gotten.”
Biden said commentators in Russian state media were openly rooting for Republicans who opposed additional U.S. aid to Ukraine.
“If we’re being praised by Russian propagandists, maybe it’s time to rethink what we’re doing,” Biden said. “History will judge harshly those who turn their backs on the cause of freedom.”
Canadians may remember the last time Trump was president-elect. Biden himself, who was vice president at the time, warned that Canada would need to step up to fill a gap on the international stage.
This time, the world seems to be even more dangerous.
“In both the United States and Canada, there is recognition that we need to be prepared, but there is little confidence that we are ready,” said Chris Sands, director of the Canadian Institute at the Wilson Center, based in Washington, D.C. ” he said.
“I feel like Canadians are starting to realize what they called the ‘vacation from history’ during the Clinton years…That era is over and Canada is in a position of underinvesting in some areas. .This is the tool we need right now.”
That is likely to include areas such as defense spending, foreign aid and the diplomatic corps, in other words, confronting Canada’s reputation in some circles as wary of conflict and skimpy on foreign policy. become.
“There’s a feeling across (the United States) that things aren’t going well, and we need to respond to this with some leadership. And I think that’s an important fear,” Sands said.
“I think that’s part of the reason why people are so worried about the divisive Trump-Biden campaign, because there’s so much threat to just sitting around tearing each other down. Of what help is that?”
But polling in the U.S., and to some extent in Canada, suggests it’s not just some world leaders who are becoming reluctant to engage in potentially costly international affairs. has been done.
A recent Pew Research Center survey found that only 30% of right-wing respondents in the U.S. want their country to actively participate in world affairs, compared to 30% of right-wing respondents who want their country to actively participate in world affairs. The figure was 43% for those on the left, and 65% for those on the left.
In Canada, 40% of right-wingers and 54% of centrists said they believed active involvement in international affairs was in the best interest of the country’s future.
In any case, and regardless of the outcome of November’s presidential election, Canadians can expect to see more pressure on their country around the world.
“I can’t imagine how we’re going to move forward unless the United States says to our key allies, ‘You need to step up — not just once, but with us,'” Sands said. said. .
The same goes for meaningful action on climate change, and the idea that the West’s wealthiest countries should bear the lion’s share of the burden of reducing emissions will become more difficult in the coming years.
“I think a sense of reciprocity will be important,” he said. “I think we need to see more of the world and us coming together and not just the United States acting. I think we’re going to need that.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 21, 2023.