The ‘crisis’ shaking the situation at home and abroad is likely to worsen in the coming years and could have serious implications for the federal government and the Canadian Federal Police, says an internal report prepared for the RCMP. Says.
“The international community is experiencing a series of crises, with COVID-19, supply chain issues, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine all sending shockwaves around the world,” the Canadian government’s five-year trend report reads. the report states.
“The situation will likely get even worse over the next five years, as the early effects of climate change and the global recession add further weight to the ongoing crisis.”
The report was prepared by the RCMP’s three-member Strategic Foresight and Methodology Team, a special section established in February 2022. The report has been shared with management of the RCMP’s federal police division, RCMP spokesperson Robin Percival said in response to questions from CBC News. .
The report was obtained through Access to Information Law and shared with CBC News by Matt Malone, assistant professor of law at Thompson Rivers University.
The heavily redacted nine-page report considers changes in the “domestic and international environment that may have significant implications for the Government of Canada and the RCMP.” Percival said the report was written between March and December 2022 “with the aim of informing situational awareness and decision-making” for the five years after the report was completed. It hasn’t been updated since then.
The report says it is based on “open source, visionary materials, horizon scans, and environmental scans from national and international law enforcement, government agencies, and private organizations.”
The report paints a bleak picture of what the RCMP, and Canada, must face in the coming years.
“The geopolitical, economic, social, technological, and environmental changes described here are complex and evolving,” the report warns. “They have the potential to disrupt or redefine law enforcement operations and operations in unforeseen ways. Changes, both small and large, can result in multifaceted and disruptive changes across an organization. may cause.”
The report predicts that climate change will have significant impacts.
“Over the next five years, environmental scientists predict that increasingly intense and even simultaneous storms, worsening droughts, floods, and persistent heat waves around the world will lead to global “We expect production to decline,” the report said.
“Law enforcement agencies should expect these destructive weather patterns to impact all aspects of government, including damage to critical infrastructure and increased pressure to cede territory in the Arctic.”
The report states that more frequent extreme weather events “may have a disproportionately negative impact on Indigenous communities, because many Indigenous communities are located in regions that are experiencing more warming, and weather events are “This could occur at the same time as other major crises requiring RCMP resources.” .
“To ensure continued levels of service delivery, law enforcement decision-makers must consider emergency management plans. Building capacity through attracting and retaining qualified personnel continues to be This is a challenge for.”
Decline in living standards and polarization
Political polarization and resentment, combined with the threat of economic recession, will be a challenge, the report predicts.
“Future recessionary periods will also accelerate the decline in living standards that young people are already experiencing compared to previous generations,” the report said.
“For example, many Canadians under the age of 35 are unlikely to be able to afford a place to live. The impact of this decline in living standards is compounded by the fact that we currently have extreme wealth disparities compared to developed countries. It has always been that way for generations. ”
Security and defense expert Christian Leuprecht explains how global conflict can cause serious problems for Canada’s supply chains.
The report said populists are capitalizing on the rise in political polarization and conspiracy theories, tailoring their messages to appeal to extremist movements, and authoritarian movements in many liberal democracies. He added that it is increasing.
“Law enforcement agencies should expect continued social and political polarization fueled by misinformation campaigns and increased distrust in all democratic institutions,” the report said. ing.
New information technologies such as AI deepfakes, quantum computing and blockchain could also pose challenges, the report said.
“Law enforcement agencies should expect that criminals will leverage technological innovations to gain profit and influence,” the report states. “Law enforcement agencies must also continue to contribute to policy changes related to personal information privacy, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, quantum computing, digital ledger technology, and more.”
The COVID-19 pandemic may have subsided, but it will continue to impact Canadian society in 2022, the report says.
“Damage to the economy and the social fabric of the nation continues, and opposition to existing and potential public health measures and other restrictions is becoming established,” the report said, adding that 10 per capita It cites university research that shows that the above exists. The chances of another pandemic spreading in the near future are slim.
The report claims to cover geopolitical factors, but redacted sections appear to include references to geopolitical issues. Two pages of the report are completely blank except for a photo of a globe.
Michael Kempa, an associate professor of criminology at the University of Ottawa, welcomed the report and the presence of the task force, saying the RCMP is “struggled to live up to its federal police responsibilities.”
“They’ve set up a special agency that’s currently scanning for major trends and threats to issues like federal policing. This will probably help the RCMP to deal with these kinds of challenges in the future. It’s meant to be placed, so it’s positive.”
Kempa said the report pinpoints the challenges the RCMP and government will face.
“The only thing I think they’re underestimating is that the RCMP has to urgently prepare to meet these challenges,” he said.
Kempa said the RCMP doesn’t have much time to make the necessary changes, including hiring people with the skills needed to deal with these types of issues.
“This report underestimates the severity of the challenge,” he said.
The “disconnect” between threat and preparedness
Christian Leuprecht, a professor at Queen’s University and the Royal Military College specializing in defense and security, wrote a section of the report on the challenges posed by new information technologies and how law enforcement agencies are responding to “policy changes.” He said that the proposal that Japan should contribute to the development of Japan’s economy was appropriate. I went out for him.
“This is a very unusual statement,” Leuprecht said. “This means that this country’s policy framework will be able to address personal information protection, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things connectivity, privacy challenges, and other things brought about by quantum computing and blockchain technology, and It is brought about by facilitators that have been proven in all kinds of criminal activity.”
Leuprecht said the report also points to some often overlooked threats, such as global supply chain issues and the need for improved emergency management plans.
“What we’re seeing is a strategic threat assessment and the resources, capabilities, capabilities and political will to effectively prepare Canada for what is clearly a very difficult future for this country. “It’s part of the disconnect between the two,” he said.
