The playoffs are just a few weeks away, but there’s some good news. There’s still one good round of matchups left. It’s really good. They’re so amazing that part of me doesn’t want to talk about them. Because there’s still time for the hockey gods to take them away from us. But let’s tempt fate by beating five tempting possibilities.
Of course, you need to define what it means for a match to be “still in play.” That can be difficult and lead to wishful thinking.uses odds from Sports club statistics, limited to matchups that have at least a 30% chance of happening heading into Thursday night’s game. This means there won’t be any blockbuster rivalries like Rangers vs. Islanders (3%) or Oilers vs. Canucks (1%), but if these miraculous matchups happen, I’m I would like to congratulate them on their achievements in making this possible.
No, we stay in the pseudo-real world and insist on a combination of 30 percent or more, with the added bonus that no team reuses more than once, that you can’t hit a full home run, and that all teams Just choose. There are various possible matchups for the Maple Leafs. Spoiler alert: This still sets the stage for some really good matches. Let’s count down…
Probability of happening: With a win rate of 38 percent, this is the most likely matchup for both teams.
Potential storyline: This feels like a strange choice, I know. There’s no real history here, no bad blood to speak of. But if you dig a little deeper, you could argue that these teams represent the most interesting story in the league over his two seasons.
Let’s start with Vancouver, a huge city that no one expected. They could ignore percentages, make doubters look foolish, and still finish first overall. They’re also an incredibly fun bunch of talent. A few months ago, I called them the most attractive team in the league, and they lived up to that title. But the Predators have somehow used the canceled concert to transform themselves into an unstoppable force and make their own statement.
And importantly, as I said in this week’s pod, everyone is going to seriously think about picking Nashville in this matchup. The Hockey Code says you have to pick at least one player to lose in the wild card, and just because you’re overestimating late-season momentum, the Predators beating the Canucks means the Capitals beat the Rangers. Because it feels more plausible than winning. If these picks come out and 75 percent of us pull off an upset against the Predators, Vancouver fans will be furious at the scorn that “no one believes in us.” And they’re not completely wrong.
Elements of rivalry: We don’t talk much. The two teams have only met once in the playoffs, in 2011, when the Canucks defeated the Predators in six games during a difficult run of Stanley Cup near-misses. By the way, the two teams have met three times this season, with Vancouver winning all three times in regulation. But they’re all from the Predators’ pre-U2 era, so do they count?
Conclusion: Oh, and it’s also a Canadian team against a southern market, a battle of excellent goaltenders, a possible series of intergenerational Norris Trophy torch relays between Roman Josi and Quinn Hughes, and it’s a battle between teams on both sides. Featuring Swedish stars. Even without the fan outrage, this would be a lot of fun. This is also going to be off the charts.
Random motivational clips: Here’s a photo of Elias Pettersson scoring a hat trick in October and ruining Ryan O’Reilly’s 1,000th game appearance.
4. Maple Leafs vs. Bruins
Probability of happening: 58 percent. Remember, there are two ways to get here. Because even if the Lightning overtake the Leafs for third place in the division, Boston could also get this matchup by overtaking the Panthers.
Potential storyline: The Maple Leafs, the chronically underachieving team everyone hates in the playoffs, face off against their hated Original Six rivals who always seem to have their number. The Bruins broke this Leafs core in both 2018 and 2019, but the most disappointing loss in playoff history means both teams almost feel like they should win.
60-point scorers on both sides, stories of revenge and betrayal from Tyler Bertuzzi, Sheldon Keefe facing off against reigning champion Jack Adams in the playoffs, Jack Edwards fighting Joe Bowen in the parking lot, and much more. Mix in the star power of. With a total of two of his best NHL goalies appearing in the series (check roster), you have all the ingredients to make something memorable.
Elements of rivalry: Very expensive. They have his two recent series plus the 2013 debacle.If you want to go back even further, they found The reason why we have hated each other for decades. Bad blood appears every year, including this time. (Remember a few months ago when Brad Marchand sent the Leafs on their latest round of existential soul-searching?)
Conclusion: Just for your information, as a Maple Leafs fan, I’m really scared of this matchup and it makes me sick to my stomach. That makes you want more, right? Of course it is.
Random motivational clips: No, I don’t use clips that game, Thanks for asking. Instead, consider the relatively mild Game 7 collapse in 2018 when Toronto blew a third-period lead and gave up four straight points.
3. Oilers vs. Kings
Probability of happening: With a 78 percent win rate, this is by far the most likely matchup in the league at this point.
Potential storyline: This is the third year in a row that the two teams have met in the first round, with the Oilers winning in 2022 and 2023. However, both of those series were closer than expected and with a young Kings team, they might have been happy. It’s there. Meanwhile, the Oilers are under intense pressure to finally put together a Cup appearance.
Elements of rivalry: Very high considering recent history and a lot of bad blood in the old school Smythe division.
Conclusion: The main reason the NHL justifies its generally unpopular playoff format is that it creates conflict between divisions. I’m not sure if that really applies to a league with eight teams in each division (instead of only five in the past), but the format envisions the same two teams playing each other three years in a row. Something like that. Produce.
Now the question will be, are the Kings just playing the role of the early 2000s Senators against the Oilers’ version of the Pat Quinn Maple Leafs, or can this become a real rivalry? This is the best team in Oilers history during the Connor McDavid era, and a loss here would be an obvious disaster. The Kings, on the other hand, have had an up-and-down season and haven’t won a round since their last Cup in 2014. Another first-round loss would raise big questions about the direction of the rebuild, and the stakes would be just as high. That will be the case for both teams. Please register.
(But, oh well, no stupid replay review controversy this time.)
Random motivational clips: This is Zach Hyman’s OT winner in Game 4 last year, which was a clear turning point in the series.
2. Lightning vs. Panthers
Probability of happening: 44%, same two-pass scenario as Leafs/Bruins.
Potential storyline: This will be the third time in the last four years that the two teams will meet in the playoffs. The Lightning have been the defending champions the last two times, winning both series with relative ease. But this time around, the Panthers will come in as the favorites, looking to finally kick some sand in the bully’s face and break out of their ever-present big brother shadow.
That is, unless Lightning isn’t completely finished yet. They lost in the first round last year, ending their winning streak in the Eastern Conference Finals at three, but it feels like the torch is being passed to a team like Florida. But the old core is still here and with Steven Stamkos in the final year of his contract, this could be their last hurray.
The Panthers haven’t been able to deal with them in the past, but will it finally happen this year? And would you root for a team that has led the conference for years or a new era of easy-to-hate villains?
Elements of rivalry: The first few decades of these two franchises’ existence were unfortunately quiet, but the last few years have been strong. And remember, the Panthers beat the Lightning 9-2 this season.
Conclusion: The rivalry was already good, but this year’s storyline and the weight of the stakes could make it even better. The same goes for Matthew Tkachuk, who didn’t appear in the first two chapters but is supposed to spice things up a lot.
Random motivational clips: Enter Ryan Romberg, the unlikely hero (and constant thorn in the side of the Lightning) who ends the only playoff overtime game between the teams in 2021.
Probability of happening: The total, 36%, is split almost evenly between Colorado and Dallas. Yes, here he is cheating by combining two teams. Look, this is the Golden Knights, the rules don’t apply, right?
Potential storyline: The Knights have assumed the title of the league’s most interesting team since the perennial trade deadline, which not only pushed all the chips into the middle of the table, but also threw in a gold watch and a car key. But with two game-breakers in Mark Stone and Tomas Hertl missing, they aren’t even guaranteed a playoff spot, but they should be back in time for the playoffs…if they can play. Oh, and did we mention they’re also the defending Stanley Cup champions, not to mention a far-too-fast franchise that other fan bases are already fed up with?
Meanwhile, the Stars and Avalanche have been competing with the Jets for the Central Division title all year. It feels like a two-team race now, but if the reward is playing a healthy Las Vegas in the first round, you wonder if it’s a race worth winning. The Golden Knights series against either the Stars or Avalanche will be a first-round heavyweight tilt. It’s the kind of series where both teams are legitimate Cup favorites and you wonder if there’s anything left for the winner. Please play that for 7 games.
Elements of rivalry: Las Vegas defeated Colorado in the playoffs in their only matchup of 2021. They have faced Dallas twice, both in the conference finals, winning last year and losing in 2020.
Conclusion: Another possibility for Vegas is against Vancouver, which would also be a great matchup. In fact, there are no bad options for Las Vegas. But it would be great to see the past two Cup winners meet in the first round, or even a rematch of last year’s hard-fought conference finals.
Random motivational clips: Let’s finish with an overview of the playoffs as we watch last year’s Golden Knights win the Cup.
You’re already angry, right? Okay, lean into it. And think how great it would be if the road to a repeat start started by passing one of the best teams in the entire league.
(Photo of Vegas’ Nicolas Roy and Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen: Michael Martin / NHLI via Getty Images)
