ottawa –
This week, Chrystia Freeland resigned as finance minister, throwing the Liberal government into turmoil and renewing calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign or hold an election.
With 2025 set to be an election year, and with the Liberals far behind in the polls and no signs of recovery, Trudeau faces a critical moment when he must decide whether to stay or go. are.
Here’s a look at some of the scenarios and possibilities currently facing the Liberal Party.
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cabinet shuffle
Former Liberal party official Kareen Vallyan of Summa Strategies said much depended on what the prime minister did “in the next 24 hours”.
He said if Trudeau wants to remain prime minister, he will solidify his cabinet as soon as possible and strengthen his Canada-U.S. relations team by signaling a shift in direction to focus on relations with President Trump. said it should.
“Prime Minister Trudeau needs to show his cabinet, his caucus and the country that he remains in firm control of the government,” he said, adding that cabinet members who announced months ago that they would not seek re-election have also been replaced. He added that it must be done.
In Ottawa political circles, behind-the-scenes chatter about an impending cabinet reshuffle quickly died down Wednesday after Freeland abruptly resigned from the Cabinet on Monday.
The Liberal Party is currently waiting for the heat to cool down before shuffling its front line and installing a new cabinet to deal with the incoming Trump administration, which is threatening to impose 25% tariffs on Canada. Maybe.
Varyan said Trudeau shouldn’t wait.
“If he can bring a new sense of stability and take control… he has a good chance of staying in power until the spring,” she said.
Otherwise, parliamentary groups and ministers could begin to defect “much sooner” and parliament could collapse “soon after its return at the end of January.”
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Prime Minister Trudeau resigns
The House has suspended its tools for the holidays and will not resume until Jan. 27, after President Donald Trump’s inauguration.
If Prime Minister Trudeau were to resign, he would have until mid-to-late January to do the proverbial “walk in the snow” and take over the reins of Liberal leadership, as his father famously did. I will ponder it.
Former Conservative House of Commons leader Peter Van Loon said what happens next is all in Trudeau’s hands.
“Honestly, I think one of the reasons he’s holding on is because he’s way behind in the polls and doesn’t want to feel like he’s been kicked out. But what it’s doing is he’s You’re just stirring up the environment that seems like that.” He was kicked out. ”
Van Loon said the most likely scenario, although not completely set in stone, is for Trudeau to be suspended and resign in January.
“He will remain as party leader until a successor is chosen and the party begins its search process, which may be in late May or June, I don’t know,” Van Loon said. Nothing will happen until this is decided.” . ”
The party’s national board will appoint an interim leader and set a campaign date until the party’s grassroots elects a new leader.
In this case, the Liberal Party will have to really try. The party will likely aim to secure space and conduct a race in far less time than has been allowed in previous leadership contests.
Party leaders will also have to deal with running the campaign under sweeping rule changes introduced under Trudeau. This will fundamentally widen the Liberal Party’s reach to anyone who wants membership, making it more than just an exclusive club where you pay and issue cards. . carry members.
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Prime Minister Trudeau remains in office
Prime Minister Trudeau could continue to act as usual and hold out until the scheduled fall election date, and improvements on living costs and other affordability issues could give the Liberals a vote advantage. be.
Trudeau has not adopted a formal mechanism for ousting party leaders, as the Conservatives did when they adopted reform legislation that ultimately led to the expulsion of former leader Erin O’Toole by the Conservative caucus. It is possible that he will continue to be in power. But if enough members of Congress demand his resignation, it will become harder for him to maintain his position.
In this scenario, the ruling party wants to wait out the situation as long as possible, hoping that voters’ dissatisfaction with Trudeau’s brand will diminish.
For it to work, the New Democratic Party will have to continue supporting the government through the current minority parliamentary period.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh called for Trudeau’s resignation this week, and House of Commons Leader Peter Julien said in an interview on CBC’s “Power and Politics” that if Trudeau remains in power, he will be in power in February. He threatened to topple the government in a confidence vote in March.
If the party follows suit, elections could be held around March.
House Minority Leader Karina Gould pointed out during questions Tuesday that the NDP has supported the Liberals through all confidence votes in the fall seats, even as recently as last week.
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mass election
The next federal election is currently scheduled for late October, but an election could be held sooner if the Trudeau government fails to secure a vote of confidence in the House of Commons.
These votes are held on spending issues such as the budget and the autumn economic announcement, and the government has a lot of power over when the votes take place.
However, opposition parties can hold their own vote of confidence on a special calendar day known as Opposition Day or Supply Day, giving the government some flexibility in setting the date. According to the standing orders of the House of Commons, up to seven of these must be realized by late March. It does not have to be a vote of confidence.
If the Conservatives, Bloc and NDP reject the government in any of these votes, there could be winter, spring or summer elections, but that would require everyone coming together at once.
If that happens, the election period must be at least 37 days and no more than 51 days, according to Elections Canada’s backgrounder. Election day must always be on a Monday.
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prologue
In any scenario facing Prime Minister Trudeau, he could choose to press the pause button on parliament by suspending proceedings. Requests can also be made to the Governor-General while the House of Commons is in session or in recess.
Suspending parliament would allow the government to avoid a vote of confidence that could trigger regime change or early elections.
Trudeau’s resignation would buy enough time for a leadership contest, but it would have to be short-lived.
Former House Procedures Clerk Thomas Hall said the move has a time limit. Congress will need to return in a few months to continue funding the government to keep the lights on.
That’s because once in the past, the late former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney prorogued Parliament before it was scheduled to reconvene in February 1989, keeping it closed from December to April and issuing special warrants. This is because the approval of day-to-day expenditures was left to the Governor-General through his signature.
Former Liberal MP Peter Milliken supported a private member’s bill that would force Parliament to resume voting on government funding, believing this raised questions of political liability.
Mr. Milliken’s successful rule change in 1996 means that Mr. Trudeau cannot delay the entire spring session to avoid an election.
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privilege debate
The House of Commons was gridlocked through much of the fall, unable to pass most government legislation due to privileges debate and the filibuster over the release of documents in the ethics and spending scandal.
“If they adjourn now, even if there is a new session, there will be no privileged filibuster discussion. It will be over,” Hall said. Opposition parties may try to revive that discussion.
Mr Hall believes Speaker Greg Fergus mishandled the debate and believes that if the House had followed a different procedure, it could have ended sooner rather than later. There is.
“Unless we change the rules, we’ll be right back in the same ranking,” he said, meaning the spring roundtable could end up in the same deadlock as the fall.
“I think they have no choice but to suspend, in order to avoid another day of opposition where (the government) loses and will still face privilege motions.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 17, 2024.
