During the final hours of his first visit to Laos, the prime minister watched two fishermen cast bamboo nets into the murky waters of the Mekong River. They were trying to catch small fish, about the length of a man’s index finger, to use later as bait for something more important.
The image of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with his sleeves rolled up and his youngest son, Hadrian, holding a net at his side, is a sign of Canada’s trade strategy in the region, a number of small businesses designed to seize greater opportunities for future generations. This is an apt metaphor for scale investment.
After a 27-hour trip to Vientiane, Laos, Trudeau spent just 36 hours in the capital. He was there to attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit. This is the third consecutive year.
In his speech at the summit’s grand banquet, Prime Minister Trudeau boasted, “This is something no Canadian prime minister has ever done before,” adding, “The number of people around the table may change from year to year, but… I really feel at home here.”
Since 2015, when the Liberal Party won a majority and took power, Canada has nearly doubled its trade with the 10 ASEAN countries to $38.8 billion. Together, these countries make the bloc Canada’s fourth largest trading partner.
Prime Minister Hadrian Trudeau, father of Prime Minister Hadrian Trudeau, walks up the stairs with Mary Ng, Minister of Export Promotion, International Trade and Economic Development, and Anourak Khitihun, CEO of the Mekong River Commission Secretariat, after a visit with fishermen along the Mekong River in Vientiane. gestures to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. , Laos, October 11, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wild
conclude a contract
The federal government is currently negotiating a free trade agreement with Indonesia, which is expected to be signed by the end of the year, and separate agreements with other ASEAN countries are expected to be signed in the coming months.
Economists say now is a good time to expand.
“We have a rapidly growing population and a young population, so we are poised to continue to grow for the next generation or two,” said Kai Ostwald, HSBC Chair in Asian Studies at the University of British Columbia. . “All of this makes it really valuable to Canada.”
Expanding trade with ASEAN member states is critical to Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy, which seeks to reduce dependence on the Chinese market.
“We need to reduce risk, so this is about building new trade partnerships. New relationships,” said Vina Najubulla, deputy director of research and strategy at the Canada Asia-Pacific Foundation. “We are an energy and food powerhouse, and (Southeast Asia) needs those resources.”
Mr. Najubulla said the rapidly industrializing ASEAN countries are fertile ground for Canada to advance new trade areas such as aerospace, defense and climate technology.
hook, line, almost sinker
To attract them, Prime Minister Trudeau held seven meetings with world leaders, spoke at the main gala dinner, and participated in roundtable discussions in front of ASEAN entrepreneurs.
He brought buckets of bait to Vientiane and announced a $128 million targeted investment package. This funding builds on the Liberal Government’s priorities of combating climate change, supporting women’s and children’s rights, and improving stability in the Indo-Pacific region.
The majority, 65%, of the investment will be earmarked for sustainable development and environmental protection measures. The remaining funds will be distributed to efforts to combat transnational crimes such as human trafficking, drug trafficking and cyber fraud. ASEAN programs to help women earn fair wages and combat child labor are also funded.
But to catch bigger fish, you’ll also need a bigger net. To facilitate trade exchanges, Canada is upgrading its diplomatic missions in Cambodia and Laos to full embassies. This means that all 10 ASEAN countries will have Canadian ambassadors. Over the next 12 months, trade missions for the Canadian team are also planned in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Cambodia.
Prime Minister Trudeau hopes this will open up ASEAN markets to more Canadian products and create more jobs at home and abroad.
“This is not about the footprint of government. This is about creating these opportunities for farmers, start-ups and businesses from coast to coast that import from and export to this region.” the Prime Minister said at a press conference on Friday after the summit.
shark in the water
Complicating matters, other countries at the ASEAN summit were carrying larger buckets of bait. The gala dinner was attended by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walked beside Prime Minister Trudeau on the banquet room floor, and Chinese Premier Li Qiang sat two seats away from Trudeau. They watched a performance of Lao dance.
China is ASEAN’s largest trading partner. More than $1.25 trillion of goods move between China and EU countries every year, 45 times the size of Canada’s trade. China is a formidable competitor. Sharks swimming in ASEAN waters.
Prime Minister Trudeau told reporters that Canada needs to work with China “as an important global player” in certain areas, but that Canada needs to work with China “as an important global player,” but competes with the superpower for market access in areas such as critical minerals and clean technology. He said there was a need to do so.
His new strategy involves finding strength in numbers.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau enters the room to participate in an armchair discussion at the ASEAN Business and Investment Summit in Vientiane, Laos, October 11, 2024. Canadian Press/Adrian Wilde
new arrangement
Just before the summit, Prime Minister Trudeau held a three-way meeting for nearly an hour with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon at a cafe.
China has taken protectionist measures against all three countries with which it has trade disputes. Trade Minister Mary Ng said she shared with allies how Canada responded to retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on canola exports.
Last year, Chinese state-sponsored hackers targeted the governments of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand with cyberespionage.
Leaders say learning from common experiences can lead to solutions that pursue common goals.
“As three of the Five Eyes partners, we share support for democratic values, support for human rights and opposition to violence and conflict,” Australia’s Mr Albanese said. He also hinted at strengthening diplomatic cooperation in the future.
In the past year since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, Prime Minister Trudeau, Prime Minister Al Albanon, and Prime Minister Luxon have issued two joint statements calling for the return of hostages and a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. They also advocated a two-state solution in the region.
A recent survey of Southeast Asian states conducted by the Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore found that the biggest geopolitical concern in the region is the Israel-Hamas war. Four of the 10 ASEAN member states have a majority Muslim population, including Indonesia, with which Canada hopes to sign a free trade agreement later this year.
“The Middle East conflict has highlighted the sense that being rules-based means one thing to one country and another thing to another,” UBC’s Ostwald said.
The joint action by Canada, Australia and New Zealand may have distanced middle powers from the United States and Israel and shielded them from some of the criticism at the summit. Although this issue did come up, it did not derail the negotiations.
At the end of his address to ASEAN leaders, Prime Minister Trudeau said he was “determined to expand on our shared commitments and priorities and ultimately deliver real results and prosperity for our people.”
Prime Minister Trudeau has managed to stay afloat in the geopolitical arena, but is at risk of drowning politically at home.
air turbulence
The House has been in a deadlock since it began sitting in the fall. The New Democratic Party ended its supply and confidence agreement with the Liberal Party nine months early. The Conservative Party launched two unsuccessful motions of no confidence within its first week back in the House of Commons as it pursued a “carbon tax election”.
Meanwhile, the Bloc Quebecois is refusing to support the government unless it passes a supply management and superannuation bill by the end of October.
And on Friday, the insider threat surfaced as Prime Minister Trudeau returned from Laos.
After a 13-hour flight, the prime minister’s plane stopped in Hawaii for refueling. As soon as the government plane landed, turbulence hit. Upon landing, the cellphones of Trudeau’s staff members buzzed with text messages and emails.
On Friday, CTV News confirmed a story first reported by the Toronto Star. A group of MPs, primarily from Atlantic Canada and southwestern Ontario, are in talks to formally issue a request for the prime minister to consider the future of the Liberal Party. Deciding whether to remain in control or not.
The deal was concluded while the prime minister was in the air.
While RCMP guards escorted Trudeau away so he could go for a run during a refueling break, his staff gathered in a small room in a VIP hangar in Honolulu to discuss their next move. After about 20 minutes, it was decided that Trade Minister Mary Ng would provide comments on the record to the 11 journalists who accompanied the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister’s spokesperson did not respond to inquiries about when he learned of the rebellion. Details were first published in the Star around 6 p.m. At the time, the Airbus A-330 was in the Pacific Ocean on an overnight flight from Laos.
While Prime Minister Trudeau has access to the internet, there is no Wi-Fi access in other areas of the plane.
Ng told reporters that he learned of the caucus split after his plane landed in Hawaii and turned on his cell phone.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau participates in an armchair discussion and listens to Mary Ng, Minister of Export Promotion, International Trade and Economic Development, at the ASEAN Business and Investment Summit in Vientiane, Laos, October 11, 2024. . Canadian Press/Adrian Wilde
Ng said he was “disappointed” that his colleagues’ disagreements did not survive in the caucus. She said she still had faith in Trudeau and lamented the move as a distraction that takes away from the government’s drug bill and the summit’s success.
“Canadians are counting on us to do the same work that the Prime Minister and I have been doing in ASEAN over the last few days. Businesses are counting on us to develop these markets. ” Ng told reporters during a short scrum that lasted about three minutes.
A free trade agreement with ASEAN is expected to be signed at the end of 2025. If Prime Minister Trudeau is forced to resign or his government collapses and he loses the next election, he will not be on the ground as prime minister to see the results. Of his labor.
Before meeting the Laotian fishermen, Trudeau would have seen the remains of a flooded riverbank that covered a nearby amusement park with a thick layer of dry, cracked mud. The region is in the middle of the monsoon season.
There may be plenty of fish, but if the river is high and the race is on, don’t expect to catch any.
