ottawa –
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has resisted calls for his resignation for more than a year, but in recent weeks those calls have grown louder and, in some cases, more openly.
The Liberal caucus is expected to meet on Wednesday, where Trudeau is expected to confront a group of MPs who have banded together to try to persuade him to ultimately resign.
Here’s what you need to know ahead of this conference:
Why do some MPs want Prime Minister Trudeau to resign?
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity among Canadians has been waning for more than a year, according to polls, and some MPs believe he won’t be able to lead the Liberal Party to victory again in the next election.
Mr. Trudeau’s popularity once helped the party rise, but now Canadians’ dissatisfaction with his leadership is holding it back.
The issue has become an increasingly pressing concern for the Liberal Party as a fall election looks much more likely. The NDP ended its supply and confidence agreement with the Liberals in September, and will now decide whether to support the government on a case-by-case basis. The Bloc Quebecois also issued an ultimatum to the Liberal Party in late October to support the pension bill before the Bloc withdraws its support.
Some MPs had previously argued that Mr. Trudeau should step down, but he was ousted in the first two weeks of October while Mr. Trudeau was overseas for international summits in France and Laos. The movement began to gain momentum. He canceled plans to attend a Commonwealth summit in Samoa this week as domestic issues boil over in the country.
Liberal MP Sean Casey has publicly acknowledged for the first time that he has signed a letter calling for Prime Minister Trudeau to resign, but did not say how many other MPs have joined him.
Casey said Monday that Canadians are no longer listening to Trudeau and that he has become a nuisance.
“There was a lot of baggage. People were ignoring him,” Casey told reporters.
Most ministers have spoken out in defense of Trudeau, but some acknowledged Wednesday’s talks could be tense.
Scott Reid, former Prime Minister Paul Martin’s communications director, said it was highly unlikely Trudeau would resign as a result of Wednesday’s meeting.
But he said the situation would still bother him as the next election approaches.
“I think that’s a burden, even for someone like Justin Trudeau, who has a track record of success and tremendous self-confidence,” Reid said.
“You still have the burden of dissent from your leadership, and you have to carry that burden.”
What are Prime Minister Trudeau’s options?
If Prime Minister Trudeau decides to accede to MPs’ demands, he could announce that he is resigning immediately or that he will not run for re-election.
Until now, he has maintained he is not going anywhere, including on Tuesday morning when he answered “no” when asked if his leadership was in jeopardy.
If he changes his mind, he can remain in office until a new leader is chosen, or step down immediately. If he chooses the latter, an interim leader will take over as leader while a leadership election is held.
If he steps down while the party is still in power, it could leave the Liberal Party vulnerable to an early election. In the absence of a permanent Liberal leader, the NDP could see a better chance of casting its own fortunes and vote against the government in the next confidence motion.
Prime Minister Trudeau can prevent that by proroguing Parliament – which would effectively end the current session and hit the reset button, leaving him open to the Liberal leadership race if he resigns. Maybe you can spare some time.
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said Tuesday the government has no intention of suspending operations.
Could MPs force him to resign, or at least force a leadership review?
There is no mechanism by which the Liberal caucus could force Trudeau to resign because the party chose not to support a bill that would give it the power to force a leadership review from within its own caucus.
The Conservatives were the only party to vote in favor of reform legislation after the last election, leading to a secret ballot to oust former leader Erin O’Toole in early 2022.
Nor will it force the entire party to review its leadership. In fact, there is no such review mechanism in the party constitution, except in the case of a party defeat in a general election.
What will the Liberal leadership race look like?
If Trudeau resigns, the party’s national president would have to convene a board meeting within 27 days to discuss a leadership election. The board must establish two committees. One to manage the costs of the leadership contest, and the other to plan, organize, and carry out the voting.
Candidates must submit their nominations at least 90 days before the vote.
Reed said if a leadership contest were to occur, it would likely be a close one.
“Usually when you’re in government, especially if you’re in a volatile minority parliament, you don’t want to go too long without a prime minister who’s also the leader of your own party, so the campaign is probably going to be short. “You’d think, ‘It’s a party,'” he said.
However, he said it is extremely unusual for a minority ruling party to hold a leadership election.
Who will run to replace Prime Minister Trudeau?
A growing number of ministers are on the list of potential successors, some of whom have only garnered rumors, while others have secretly begun organizing for a future government.
The list of candidates includes Mr Freeland, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Housing Minister Sean Fraser, Public Safety Minister Dominique Leblanc and Finance Committee Chair Anita Anand.
Former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney and former British Columbia Premier Christie Clark have also indicated they may run.
Mr Carney was selected in September to lead the Liberal Party’s economic task force ahead of the next election and has long aspired to run for political office.
On a recent episode of Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith’s Uncommons podcast, Mr Carney was asked if his name might one day appear on the ballot.
“We’re taking steps to support that,” Carney said, adding, “We may have an opportunity.”
“I have never closed the door on the possibility of one day returning to politics,” Clark said in a statement Monday.
“The position of Liberal Party leader is not going to come quickly,” she said.
“If that changes, I want to be part of the conversation with the Liberal Party about the future direction of this country.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.
With files from Mia Rabson
