Donald Trump’s return to the White House has major implications for world leaders who gather this week for the APEC summit in Peru and then for the G20 in Brazil. The G20 is the first two international summits to be held after the US presidential election.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is leaving today to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Lima, before heading to the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro starting November 18th.
While the official agenda for these summits is set months in advance, there is no doubt that Trump’s victory will influence both the content and tone of the discussions.
“Obviously, the election results will change what people are talking about,” said a senior Canadian government official who was not authorized to speak publicly about the summit. “Especially in the corners and in the hallways. The conversation will be in the United States, and the leaders will be comparing notes.”
The world now knows even more about Trump, his views, and his policy plans than when he was first elected.
“We have more information this time around, so there’s more to discuss as opposed to the first government,” said Carlo Dade, director of the Canada West Foundation Center for Trade and Infrastructure. said.
“We hope to see more context for the conversation about how to respond.”
The federal government is bracing for trade disruption under second-term President Donald Trump, and former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says President Trump will not only focus on tariffs during his second term, but will also reduce Canadian supplies. He said the administration would also be targeted.
APEC is made up of 21 member countries and is considered the main economic forum in the Asia-Pacific region. These countries cannot ignore President-elect Trump’s promise to impose new tariffs on the world.
“Many of the APEC countries are being targeted,” Dade said, adding that everyone in attendance will be trying to figure out where their country ranks on America’s “list of trade enemies.”
Canada’s relatively new and strengthened Indo-Pacific strategy makes APEC important to its trade diversification plans. Experts say the summit will be an opportunity for countries to come together to protect market share from rising U.S. protectionism, but the temptation to break ranks will be great.
“Some say that when the United States becomes unreliable and unpredictable, other democracies, middle powers such as Japan, Australia, and Canada, should come together and work more closely together,” says the Institute for Asian Studies. said Bina Najibulla, vice president of research and strategy. Canadian Pacific Foundation.
“But we’re also seeing a tendency for everyone to try to manage the relationship with the United States bilaterally, as if everyone is just trying to weather the chaos rather than coordinating.”
It is even more difficult to get countries to cooperate in the G20, which brings together the world’s 20 largest economies. As the largest and most diverse group of countries, the G20 brings together friends, rivals, and enemies.
“The G20 is the largest table in international relations with such a diverse range of major players,” said an anonymous government official. “We both have something in common that we are the world’s largest economies, but we have deep disagreements because we are at a very diverse table.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be attending the G20 this year again, which frees the host nation from the awkward prospect of acting on an international warrant for his arrest.
China and India, two other countries with which Canada currently has frosty relations, will also be represented at the G20. Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to attend both APEC and the G20, and Indian President Narendra Modi is also scheduled to attend the G20.
Neither Mr. Modi nor Mr. Xi are expected to meet or have any personal interaction with Mr. Trudeau at the summit.
Prime Minister Trudeau may hold a so-called “disengagement” or formal bilateral talks with U.S. President Joe Biden, who is scheduled to attend the summit. The encounter may be more like a farewell than a positive one.
Mr. Biden supports the recent goals of both APEC and G20 host countries. He pledged to support Brazil’s flagship G20 initiative to fight world hunger and poverty. Brazil is also pushing for reforms to global governance institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the World Bank, and the United Nations Security Council. It is unclear whether Mr. Trump will keep Mr. Biden’s promise.
“Biden and most of his G20 colleagues know that they have only a two-month shelf life, so they’re not really working to advance these goals,” said John Kirton, director of the university’s G20 research group. I think you’ll want to try harder.” of Toronto. “So they’re going to want to get as much as they can before Donald Trump becomes president.”
Despite being primarily trade and economic summits, both the G20 and APEC meetings will privately discuss the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and their impact on the global economy, supply chains and security. It turns out.
President Trump’s disdain for global alliances and demands for increased defense spending from allies has upset many countries. Some fear that President Trump’s lack of interest in Taiwan’s independence will be interpreted as permission for China to invade the island.
Experts say Canada could reasonably play a role in these discussions.
“The reality is that we are a mid-ranking country, never a front-line country. Canada will never be a military power,” said retired Lieutenant General Guy Thibault, chairman of the National Defense Association Conference. Institute and former Deputy Chief of Defense Staff.
“But there is no reason why our country should not become a development superpower and use its diplomatic capabilities.”
With only weeks left until President Trump’s inauguration, many are concerned that the achievements of these summits could be reversed or abandoned by the incoming administration. Some say it’s too early to panic.
“This is the job. Sit back and keep making progress. No one is thinking fatalistically,” the official said. “There will be a transition period…but the show always goes on.”
