President-elect Donald Trump’s decisive election victory is certain to have major ramifications for Canada.
This will be Trump’s second time in the Oval Office, and the second time since Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took office, but the world looks very different than it did four years ago.
Here’s a look at the different areas where Trump’s second term as president could impact Canadians right now.
economy
It is unclear what campaign promises Mr. Trump will implement once he returns to office, but his pledge to impose flat tariffs of at least 10% has raised concerns among experts.
A report released last month by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce issued a “stern warning” against U.S. protectionist policies and concluded that President Trump’s tariffs would have a negative impact on both countries’ economies.
The report says the problem would only get worse if Canada retaliated with its own levy.
The report also details the negative impact on several U.S. states and Canadian provinces, including Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, Manitoba, and New Brunswick, which are among the country’s largest trading partners. are. South of the border, the states of Montana, Michigan, Illinois, and Texas rely on trade with Canada for a significant portion of their state economies.
“The outcome will be overwhelmingly negative, I say that analytically and empirically,” Ian Lee, an associate professor at Carleton University’s Sprott School of Business, told CP24 on Wednesday morning. ” he said.
“It’s going to manifest itself through dollars,” he said. “Not only do we export a third of our GDP, we import a third of our GDP. We import a huge amount.”
“As I predict, if the dollar soars, the price of food we import will go up, along with things like John Deere tractors and computers,” he said.
But U.S.-based policy adviser John Dickerman singled out trade and energy in particular as areas that could present opportunities for Trump’s second term.
“The first thing that came to mind was, where are the potential opportunities for the United States and Canada and a second term of President Trump to work together? And that’s something we especially want to think about in the business community. I think that’s what I’m thinking,” Dickerman said in an interview with CTV News. He serves as U.S. Vice-President of the Business Council of Canada.
“(Trade and energy) are areas where there will be friction between the United States and Canada, regardless of who is in the White House,” he said. “But it is certainly possible to advance the negotiation opportunity.”
He also cautioned against making assumptions about President Trump’s trade, economic and energy policies before the new administration begins making decisions and announcements.
“I think we need to see exactly what the economic and trade team will look like,” he said. “Will holdovers from the previous Trump administration play a specific role? I think the answer is yes in some areas and no in others, but that leaves us wondering what strategies we will adopt going forward. You will understand exactly what you need.”
“But I think optimism is very important,” he said.
trade
Trade between Canada and the United States will likely be in the spotlight as Mr. Trump enters his second term as president. Both countries are the other’s largest trading partners, and interstate agreements also contribute significantly to trade and investment.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report says that if President Trump promised a flat 10% tariff on all imports and Canada followed suit, both Canadian incomes and productivity would decline. .
The resulting trade war could cost people on both sides of the border about $1,100 a year in lost income, the report continues.
Canada’s Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, a member of the federal government’s so-called Team Canada initiative, was asked Tuesday about President Trump’s tariff plans.
Mr. Champagne did not respond to questions about tariffs, but spoke about the changes in Canada-U.S. relations since the Liberal government took office. You talk about critical minerals, you talk about semiconductors, you talk about growth challenges in North America. ”
Dickerman told CTV News that Canada is “not necessarily in a weak position” because it was already negotiating trade and tariffs with the former Trump administration.
“The real key is whether Canada’s private and public sectors can come together and work together under a bargaining opportunity with the Trump administration,” he said.
President Trump sparked a major renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement early in his first presidency. Now he has vowed to take advantage of the revised deal’s 2026 review clause, hinting at the possibility of renegotiating the deal. negotiation.
This has put sectors with deeply integrated supply chains on high alert.
“From day one he is telling the world that he is going to impose a 10% tariff on everything that violates our free trade agreement,” said Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Industries Association. . “But I think we need to take them seriously. Half of the cars made in this country are made by American car companies, and the parts that are imported to assemble 2 million cars. We need to prove once again that half of our ingredients come from American factories, and 60 percent of our raw materials come from American sources.”
“Again, Canada and the United States are very well integrated and that’s not a good move,” Volpe said.
political relationship
To prepare for the eventuality of this election, the Canadian government last January announced the Team Canada Engagement Strategy to “promote and defend Canada’s interests.”
This approach is being led by Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the United States, Melanie Jolie-Champagne, minister of foreign affairs, and Mary Ng, minister of trade.
“The friendship between Canada and the United States is the envy of the world,” Trudeau said in a social media post Wednesday morning. “President Trump and I know we will work together to create more opportunity, prosperity, and security for our two countries.”
Canadian politicians were quick to congratulate Trump on Wednesday’s election victory, with all insisting the federal government is ready for his second term. On the other hand, it is worth noting that Mr. Trump has made several criticisms of Canada in particular, the Trudeau government, and the prime minister in particular.
President Trump has previously criticized Prime Minister Trudeau as “two-faced,” “weak,” and “a far-left lunatic.”
Carleton University political scientist Aaron Oettinger told CTVNews.ca in an email this summer that relations between the two sides soured after the 2018 G7 meeting in Charlevoix, Kenya, and “never recovered.”
After those talks, Prime Minister Trudeau told a news conference that Canada would not be “imposed” on the United States in the face of the “insult” of aluminum and steel tariffs. As if in response, President Trump wrote on social media that Prime Minister Trudeau “acted in a very meek and mild manner” during the summit.
Freeland on Wednesday sought to reassure anxious Canadians by pointing to the Trudeau government’s past experience navigating the Trump presidency.
“I really want to say to Canadians that Canada is absolutely fine,” she said.
“We have a strong relationship with the United States. We also have a strong relationship with President Trump and his team,” Freeland continued. “I truly believe that Canada will rise to this moment together…We have done it before.”
border
President Trump’s first term was marked by the construction of the now-infamous U.S.-Mexico border wall, but this time he has promised mass deportations of illegal immigrants as part of a major immigration crackdown.
Kelly Craft, the former U.S. ambassador to Canada who served from President Trump’s first term in 2017 to 2019, told CTV’s Question Period host Vassie Kapelos last week that Canada He said we should prepare to head north.
“I think we need to understand that Donald Trump is going to close the southern border one day,” she said, adding, “All these illegal immigrants, all the terrorists, all the drug traffickers, all the drug cartels. , everything about humanity,” he added. The trafficker’s intention is to flee to Canada.
“Because they know that if Donald Trump becomes president, they’re going to get out of here, and they’re going to flee across the northern border,” she said.
Immigration Minister Mark Miller said Canada will continue to ensure a “disciplined and managed immigration system.”
If President Trump follows through on his immigration pledges, there could be a surge in asylum applications in Canada, as Americans could become more interested in moving north.
defense
Defense spending is an area where Canada has long faced criticism from the United States and several allies.
Canada has long been under pressure from allies to meet the NATO military alliance’s goal of spending 2 per cent of GDP on national defence. About two-thirds of the group’s members plan to participate this year, but Canada does not plan to participate until 2032.
Craft said that timeline is “not long enough” and that the federal government will need to commit more money, and faster, if Trump returns to office.
“I believe Canada needs to wake up and realize that once we work from within and strengthen ourselves, we have no better friend than the United States under President Trump, because… Because Canada has a proven track record.” This week’s period.
“Donald Trump, if you say you expect people to pay their fair share, that’s what they will do,” Craft added.
Meanwhile, President Trump has repeatedly threatened to pull the U.S. out of NATO, and earlier this year said that if he became president again, the U.S. would not defend member countries that do not meet their spending goals. Ta. NATO’s Article 5 outlines the principle of collective self-defense, stating that an attack against one member state is considered an attack against all states.
With files from CTV News’ Rachel Aiello, Menna Elnaka and Daniel Otis
