The problem is that you develop the past.
Last spring, Edmonton Oilers head coach Jay Woodcroft said little about center Ryan McLeod’s injury. I was hoping he would be back soon, but it turned into a day of home stands and road trips. The latest information from the coach was vague.
McLeod eventually landed on LTIR.
So this fall, when the Oilers’ coaching staff said Mattias Ekholm would be back soon, Oilers fans brought up this quote from Woodcroft: NHL.com “I expect both (Ekholm and McLeod) to be ready for the beginning of the year. They are having good days. We listen to the medical community and If it was a playoff game, would they be in? Yes, they would be in. But right now, I have some time. I’d like to use it. They’re both good professionals. He will be ready whenever he decides to join the team full-time.”
McLeod has returned to skating but has yet to see action with one preseason game remaining, Friday night.
Ekholm discoveries are becoming even rarer. A quick start is preferred. Should Oilers fans be concerned?
The reality is that you are missing an opportunity. One of the key elements of Edmonton’s 2022-23 season was the addition of Ekholm and subsequent mentoring of Evan Bouchard as his defensive partner.
This year, he has a chance to repeat that feat with another young defender. Elements of the envisioned season have yet to unfold.
Ekholm’s regular season was amazing.
Upon joining the Oilers at the 2023 trade deadline, the veteran defenseman immediately made a huge impact on the team. The numbers below are the total impact.
| Category | Ekholm on | Ekholmoff |
|---|---|---|
goal share | 76 percent | 46 percent |
X target share | 62 percent | 50 percent |
shot share | 55 percent | 51 percent |
SA-60 | 29 | 30 |
GA-60 | 1.69 | 2.69 |
All numbers are 5 to 5
The difference between his goal share and expected goal share last season in Edmonton shows that Ekholm has been lucky to play. Even considering luck, Ekholm promoted the club and helped Edmonton finish the regular season on a high note and advance through the division.
Ekholm’s presence on the roster was enough to reduce the club’s 60-point average at 5-on-5 down the stretch, with a breathtaking run for the club.
Perhaps even more impressively, he did it with previously struggling Bouchard as his partner. In the 21 games the Oilers played after the deadline, the duo of Ekholm and Bouchard outscored their opponents 27-8 (77 percent goal share) while playing significant minutes against elite contenders, according to PacIQ.
Ekholm vs. Elite
Woodcroft put Ekholm Bouchard and the pair of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci evenly matched against elite opponents in the final 21 games of the season. pack iq.
Ekholm’s 93 minutes played against elite players ranks second behind Nurse among regulars on defense, and his Dangerous Fenwick percentage (Smart Corsi, or Smart Expected Goal Share) is 54 percent above the competition. Ta. Ekholm’s Oilers’ actual goal share against elite opponents at 5-on-5 (6-2) during the regular season was arguably the best on the team.
His time with Bouchard, who was considered unproven in the role, reveals just how important Ekholm was to the team’s late-season success.
play off
Ekholm-Bouchard performed well in the postseason (53 percent goal share, matched expected goal share at 5-on-5), while the rest of the team shot 47 percent while Ekholm was off.
The series against the Vegas Golden Knights was tough for all of Edmonton’s defense, but Ekholm had a 50 percent goal share at 5-on-5. When Ekholm left the ice, the rest of the defense was 4-10 (29 percent).
It’s worth watching the Vegas series and pondering Ekholm’s absence during the regular season or postseason.
| player | TOI game | goal share | X target share |
|---|---|---|---|
18:01 | 48 percent | 54 percent | |
17:31 | 47 percent | 55 percent | |
17:26 | 50 percent | 53 percent | |
15:29 | 38 percent | 43 percent | |
14:21 | 60 percent | 67 percent | |
11:14 | 36 percent | 57 percent | |
6:38 | 80 percent | 52 percent |
All numbers are 5 to 5
Nurse, Bouchard, and Ekholm have solid to good numbers, Brett Kulak’s totals are good, and Filip Broberg looks good in limited duty.
Ceci and Vincent Descharnays are of concern, but the latter is unlucky given the difference between goal share and expected share.
Ekholm Broberg
The real shame of Ekholm’s injury and delay is that the club won’t get a chance to see what the Swedish connection can do in preseason games.
Both players played together for just 14 minutes in the regular season and just eight minutes in the playoffs.
Woodcroft has used Broberg in a utility role so far in the preseason, and the young blueliner has performed well. He has a 57 percent goal share and a 54 percent expected goal share through five games. He also scored 1.62 points per 60 total points (all 5-on-5) in exhibition games with the Oilers.
The Oilers have a dilemma with Broberg. While there are some nice spots in his career (his 5-on-5 goal share last year was solid for a rookie), he hasn’t been tested against top-level opponents.
Ekholm worked some real magic on Bouchard, elevating the young defenseman to a higher position and making the transition nearly seamless.
If Ekholm can do the same for Broberg, the possibility of a trade (possibly Ceci) opens up and the Oilers’ future cap fortunes suddenly look much better.
Even if Ekholm is fit for the regular season opener, this injury will be a major blow to the Oilers.
Ekholm vs. Broberg in the preseason didn’t happen, and it was a missed opportunity.
If Ekholm returns in time for the regular-season opener, the coaching staff will be able to manage Broberg’s playing time and give the youngster some expression when starting or exploding in the offensive zone, which includes veterans.
If Ekholm is unavailable for the opening game, the pairing could include Bloberg and Ceci or Bloberg and Desharnais.
It’s far from ideal. Broberg’s sink-or-swim season may start with a big challenge.
While a preseason win is great, Ekholm’s story looms large. Word from the coaching staff is more like “everything is fine,” leaving fans wondering when the veteran defender will be on the ice for a game.
Ekholm’s influence is unquestionable. There are concerns about the impact of his replacement.
(Photo: Isaiah J. Downing/USA Today)
