A winter afternoon in Vilnius, Lithuania.
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Lithuanians will vote in the first round of parliamentary elections on Sunday, with a centre-right coalition likely to be replaced by the opposition Social Democratic Party and smaller centre-left parties.
Despite economic success, strict coronavirus measures and an influx of migrants have cast a shadow over conservative Prime Minister Ingrida Simonite’s government, which took office in 2020.
Despite Lithuania, a member of the European Union, registering double-digit annual personal income growth and one of the lowest inflation rates in the 27-nation bloc, many voters still feel He doesn’t seem impressed.
“There is a lot of disappointment and dissatisfaction among voters,” said Rima Urbonaite, a political analyst at Mykolas Romelis University in Vilnius. “This is associated with numerous crises and shocks and cannot be compensated for by economic factors such as positive changes in purchasing power.”
Simonite has faced criticism for strict measures during the pandemic, with many complaining that the government did not do enough to support businesses during the lockdown. Others say thousands of people did not have adequate access to health services.
Simonite has also been criticized for his treatment of migrants arriving via Belarus. Lithuania, like Russia, is a neighboring country to the east and is mainly accommodating an influx of people from Africa and the Middle East.
According to a recent survey by pollster Vilmors, the Social Democratic Party led by Vilija Brinkeviciute will top the polls with twice as many votes as Simonite’s Fatherland Union. Between them will be Nemno Aushra, the newly registered political party of right-wing politician Remigijus Zemaitaitis, who was impeached for anti-Semitic comments earlier this year.
However, no party can win more than 20% of the vote, forcing those wishing to govern to seek alliances.
The Social Democratic Party has ruled out a partnership with the Gemaitaitis party, meaning that three to four parties likely to represent the political center will be needed to form a coalition government.
“I have always voted for conservatives, but this year I am thinking of voting not for them but for another good party,” said Darius Michalauskas, 51, a teacher from Vilnius. “Simonite and the entire Fatherland Union look battered and exhausted, so it would be better to spend some time on the reserve benches.”
Analysts say the leftward shift in Lithuania, which also borders the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad to the west, will not result in major changes in foreign policy. However, the vote came amid growing concerns about Russia’s intentions, especially in the strategically important Baltic region due to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“In this country, the direction of foreign policy is determined primarily by the president,” Urbonaite said. Earlier this year, President Hitanas Naouseda defeated Simonite in the presidential election and won a second five-year term.
In 2020, Simonite led the Fatherland Union to victory in parliamentary elections. She later formed a coalition with two liberal parties, the Liberal Party and the Freedom Movement.
Approximately 2.4 million people are eligible to elect 141 members of parliament (seimas) to four-year terms in two rounds. On Sunday, 70 members will be elected by party list, plus those from single-member constituencies that receive at least 50% of the votes. The run-off election will be held on October 27th, when a majority of the single-member constituencies will vote to choose between the two leading candidates.