Some point to Canada’s record immigration rate as rising rents and housing prices make it increasingly difficult to find an affordable place to live.
Immigrants aren’t the only ones putting a strain on the housing market. High interest rates, rising construction costs, and red tape at the local government level that delays or halts home construction are all part of the picture.
But to counter the pressures created by immigration, some are openly talking about linking in public policy the number of people Canada admits each year to the state of the country’s housing stock.
“It’s very simple math: If more families come, there will be housing for them, and housing prices will go up,” Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poièvre told an audience in Winnipeg recently. .
Poiivre has provided few details about how his government will deal with immigration, but said it will consider three factors.
“We have to bring it [immigration] “That number will increase in line with the number of housing units built. The increase in immigration should not exceed the amount of housing stock added, the number of doctors added, and the jobs available,” he said. Ta.
- This week, Cross Country Checkup wants to know: Has the housing shortage changed your view of Canada’s immigration strategy? Please provide details this shape And send us your story.
CBC News asked the Conservative Party leader for details on his plan to link immigration with housing, but has not yet received a response.
The Liberals also acknowledged that immigration numbers are exacerbating the housing crisis.
But experts and economists say widespread immigration will not bring down housing prices. What’s needed, they say, is a more nuanced approach.
Canada’s immigration landscape has changed dramatically in recent years.
In fall 2022, the Liberal government announced plans to increase the annual permanent resident target from 405,000 in 2021 to 465,000 in 2022, before stabilizing at 500,000 in 2024. This is almost double the 260,411 permanent residents who arrived in 2014.
But new permanent residents are only part of the immigration problem.
Immigration Minister Mark Miller acknowledged that the influx of non-permanent residents is fueling Canada’s housing crisis and said the federal government is considering a cap that would have a negative impact on the economy and reduce immigration costs. Critics say it can lead to prejudice.
Statistics Canada reported a total population increase of 1,158,705 permanent residents and non-permanent residents as of July 1, 2023. This is an increase of 2.9% compared to July 1, 2022. highest population growth rate It was recorded over a 12-month period beginning in 1957.
According to the agency, 98% of the increase is due to immigration, and the rest is due to natural increase (the difference between births and deaths).
According to Statistics Canada, by the end of 2023, there were 2,511,437 non-permanent residents (a class that includes international students and temporary foreign workers) in the country, compared to 1,305,206 as of fall 2021.
housing and household
Many housing experts say that tying official immigration targets to the number of homes built each year, even at the 500,000-per-year level, does not increase housing availability.
David Hulchanski, a professor of housing and community development at the University of Toronto’s Factor-Inwentasch School of Social Work, said new arrivals have the freedom to live where they want, but housing may not be available anywhere. He said there is.
“Are we going to require all immigrants to stay put?” he asked.
Hulchanski said it’s also important to distinguish between households and residences because “not 40 million people in Canada live in 40 million homes.”
He said the average Canadian household has about 2.45 people. In Germany there are only 2.14 people per household, while in Ireland it is 2.73 people per household.
On this scale, 500,000 immigrants would need about 204,000 homes in Canada, 233,000 in Germany and just 183,000 in Ireland, he said.
CMHC statistics released this week show housing starts are down 7% since 2022. Still, Halchanski said there were 223,513 new construction starts last year, enough to accommodate permanent residents.
Other pressures are also pushing down housing starts. High interest rates are making home ownership unaffordable; inflation-driven construction material prices and the ongoing supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic; and municipal-level zoning laws are causing a decline in housing starts. This is what we are doing. It becomes difficult to build a house.
Halchanski said it’s important to remember that “a home is not a household,” and linking immigration to housing availability means that all immigrants are the same and have the same housing needs. He stated that it is assumed that there is a
He said people who immigrated to Canada using the family reunification stream were more likely to live with family members rather than seek separate housing. He said some immigrants come and live together as complete families, while others may be wealthy and able to afford high housing prices.
“The challenge in actually implementing policies that link the number of immigrants to housing is that households are not equal to immigrants,” he said. “There’s a huge disparity there.”
Immigrants vs. international students
Still, Harchanski and other housing experts see a clear link between nonpermanent immigration and housing availability.
They say the recent large surge in non-permanent residents is having a major impact on housing affordability.
For example, in 2011, the number of international students in the country was just under 240,000. Late last year, Immigration Minister Mark Miller said Canada was on track to admit as many as 900,000 international students in 2023.
“Demand has increased dramatically [for housing]” said Stephen Pomeroy, a professor and housing expert at McMaster University.
“Temporary foreign workers and international students are not coming to buy homes, they are renting them, so they have a big demand impact on the rental part of the housing system.”
the current19:29Making immigration work for Canada
The federal government has faced criticism in recent years for raising immigration targets without ensuring there is enough housing and other essential services to support a larger population. Matt Galloway speaks with economists that immigration is an important part of Canada’s future prosperity, but that immigration policy requires more nuanced thinking.
Pomeroy said that while annual immigration targets are well managed, the state and federal governments have lost control of nonpermanent resident programs that bring in students and temporary workers.
Housing Minister Sean Fraser acknowledged as much, telling reporters in Halifax this week that “temporary foreign worker programs, especially international student programs,” are exacerbating the housing crisis.
Fraser named universities that do not award degrees but offer diplomas to international students.
“I truly believe that there are programs in various parts of this country that exist solely to exploit programs for the personal financial gain of the people behind these schools. “If you can call me,” he said.
Mr Pomeroy said removing as many as 700,000 international students from the system would ease rent pressures in some areas, without harming universities that have become dependent on the high tuition fees paid by international students. He said it would be.
Irfan Rouji is president of the Canadian Citizenship Association, which helps new immigrants settle in Canada. he told CBC Radio. the current This week, he said if Canada’s immigration intake is tied to housing, it’s important to target the right types of immigrants.
“Do we need 800,000 students living in homes we don’t have and studying skills we probably don’t need in this economy? Of course it’s not sustainable, but we’re bathing the baby.” “I don’t want to throw it out with the bath water,” he said. .
Rosi said he is concerned that Canada will lose the economic value that immigrants bring to the country through the permanent resident program.
the right mix
“What’s probably happened since the 1990s is that various companies and business lobbies in Canada have viewed increased immigration as just an obvious good,” said Christopher Worswick, chair of Carleton University’s economics department. I think so.”
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce argues that building more housing is better than cutting immigration.
Pascal Chan, the chamber’s director of infrastructure and construction, told CBC News the chamber believes immigration is good for business and wants the chamber to focus on attracting skilled workers. Ta.
“I think the focus should also be on increasing supply, not limiting demand, but increasing supply to get to the level we need,” he said.
Hulchanski said Canada needs to support people at the bottom of the income scale to lower housing costs.
“If you ask any housing researcher anywhere on the planet, how do we provide housing for low-income people today, the market just can’t do it,” he says.
He said only 4 per cent of Canada’s housing stock is public housing, meaning housing that is supported in whole or in part by government funds. Social housing accounts for 18 per cent of the UK’s housing stock and 17 per cent of France’s housing stock.
Although public housing accounts for only 3 percent of Germany’s housing stock, the country provides significant leeway to developers who build social housing and supports people with financial incentives.
Harchanski said focusing on immigration as a cause and promising to reduce immigration to lower housing costs is “just another way to avoid the real conversation that we need systemic change.” Stated.
“In this case, the solution would be to increase public housing from, say, 4 per cent to 16 per cent or 20 per cent of the total,” he said.
