Lawmakers return to their autumn session today after the heatwaves dramatically altered the landscape in the House of Commons.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will lead a shaky minority government after NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced last week he was ending the Supply and Confidence Agreement that has guaranteed the survival of the Liberal government for more than two years.
This puts the Liberal government in a precarious position heading into the fall session, as it cannot rely on NDP support to bolster its government in a confidence vote.
In this new political climate, here’s what to expect as lawmakers return to a minority-led government.
Poirievre threatens to launch a vote of no confidence
Conservative leader Pierre Poirievre said his party would table a motion of no confidence “at the earliest opportunity” to force a federal election.
And he’s calling on the NDP to support the motion to prove that the move to scrap the pact with the Liberals wasn’t just a meaningless “plot.”
“Canadians can’t wait. They need to vote for a good Conservative party now, and they need Jagmeet Singh to join us in voting to launch a carbon tax election now,” Poirierbre said in a caucus address on Sunday.
A party can remain in power as long as it has the confidence of the House of Representatives, i.e. the support of a majority of members of Parliament.
Although the NDP has withdrawn from the agreement with the Liberal Party, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will pass a no-confidence motion and call an election anytime soon. So far, the NDP has not indicated they want to send Canadians to the polls right now.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poirierbre, speaking in Ottawa on Wednesday, said Prime Minister Jagmeet Singh and the New Democratic Party should “put their words into action” and call a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “as soon as possible.”
An “opportunity” for the European Union
The fall session will see a new dynamic in the House of Commons, with the Bloc Québécois saying it is ready to challenge the balance of power.
The Coalition has said it is open to negotiating with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s party to secure support for a confidence vote.
The abandonment of the Liberal-New Democrat agreement creates an “opportunity” for Quebec-based sovereigntist parties, said Blochaus Leader Alain Therrien, who told reporters last week that he has already drawn up a list of demands.
“We’re not going to let the government down,” Bloc deputy leader in the House of Representatives Christine Normandin said in an interview with CBC. Power and politics Last week she said her party was “waiting for a call” from the Liberals.
“This will give us back some power,” Normandin said. “We will have more room to make demands and get benefits for Quebec. And if the government wants to maintain the status quo, those demands will have to be heard.”
She said one of the bloc’s conditions is to get a royal recommendation on Bill C-319, which seeks to raise pensions for seniors aged 65 to 74 to the same level as those aged 75 and over.
Bloc Québécois Deputy Leader Christine Normandin told Power & Politics that the New Democrats’ termination of the Supply and Confidence Agreement with the Liberal party gives them “more room to negotiate” with the Liberal government over funding for Quebec seniors and immigration powers.
A crucial by-election for the Liberal Party
On the same day that Parliament returns, the Liberal Party faces a crucial test of support in a key by-election.
Montreal’s LaSalle-Emard-Verdun electoral district has long been a Liberal stronghold: the area was represented by former premier Paul Martin for two decades.
Opinion polls currently show a three-way battle for the seat between the Liberals, Conservatives and New Democrats.
“The fact that this is happening in the premier’s backyard and they’re fighting for it, I think that tells you all you need to know about where Liberal support is across the country,” Abacus Data chairman and CEO David Collett said Sunday. Rosemary Barton Live.
Chief political reporter Rosemary Barton speaks with polling and election analysts David Collett and Eric Grenier about the upcoming by-elections in Montreal and Winnipeg.
Collett said it would be a “devastating defeat” for the Liberals if they fail to pull off a victory, pointing to their loss in the Toronto-St. Paul by-election over the summer.
The shocking loss in the Toronto-St. Paul constituency – a seat the party has held for more than 30 years – raised many questions and concerns among Liberal MPs, who interpreted the result as a rebuke to Leader Trudeau.
Prime Minister Trudeau remains committed to seeing this election through to the end, despite growing calls from within his party for him to resign.
Collett said another significant defeat in the by-election could raise questions about “what’s left” for the Liberal party.
