Iran held elections on Friday to choose a president after a tense election campaign in which nearly all candidates lashed out at the government over the economy, internet restrictions and strict enforcement of the hijab law for women.
The vote comes at a perilous time for the president-elect, who faces a host of domestic discontent and divisions, a struggling economy and regional instability that has brought Iran to the brink of war twice this year.
The election has become a three-way contest between two conservative and one reformist candidate, with many analysts predicting that neither will get the 50 percent of the vote needed, forcing a runoff election on July 5 between the reformist candidate and the top conservative candidate.
That outcome could be avoided if one of the leading conservative candidates were to withdraw from the election, but amid bitter national divisions, neither General Mohammed Baqer Ghalibaf, a technocrat and former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, nor hardline candidate Said Djalili are willing to back down.
Voting begins across the country at 8 a.m. local time on Friday and the deadline usually runs until late into the night, but elections in Iran are tightly controlled, with appointed committees of clerics and jurists vetting all candidates and suppressing opposition voices in the press.
As a result, many Iranians are expected to not vote, either in protest or because they do not believe meaningful change will be brought about through the ballot box.
That frustration was underscored by four young women studying psychology at Tehran University as they bought cosmetics in the Tajrish Bazaar in northern Iran on Wednesday. They said they were outraged by the state of affairs in Iran but had no intention of voting.
“There is nothing we can do about this situation. We have no hope except for ourselves,” said Soghand, 19, who asked not to be identified for fear of the authorities. “But we want to stay in Iran for the sake of our children.”
She was wearing well-tailored black pants and a fitted jacket, and her brown hair was not covered, but she did have a scarf wrapped around her shoulders in case officials told her to do so. As for the rule that women must wear the hijab, she added simply, “We don’t like it.”
Seeking to counter this attitude, Iranian officials, from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to senior commanders of the Revolutionary Guards, have argued that the vote was an act of defiance against Iran’s enemies and an acknowledgement of the rule of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Polling stations opened on Friday morning and Ayatollah Khamenei cast his vote in front of a crowd of photographers and reporters in a ceremonial venue set up in his official residence in central Tehran.
He used the opportunity to urge Iranians to vote for their country regardless of who they support, saying voting is a national duty that brings “dignity and credibility” to the country in the eyes of the world.
“This is a big political test for the country, and I know some people have doubts and are undecided about what to do,” he said, “but I can tell them this is important and has a lot of benefits, so why not do it?”
The government expects turnout to be around 50 percent, higher than recent presidential and parliamentary elections but far lower than the last presidential election, in which more than 70 percent of eligible voters participated.
In Iran, all major state decisions, particularly foreign and nuclear policy, are made by Ayatollah Khamenei, meaning voters’ choices will be influenced by the overall political atmosphere of the country rather than any individual candidate.
With two of the original six candidates withdrawing, voters are left to choose between Jalili, who has uncompromising views on domestic and foreign policy; Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf; reformist candidate Dr. Masoud Pezechkian, a cardiologist and former health minister (whose candidacy is something of a wild card); and Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a conservative cleric and former senior intelligence official who is polling to receive less than 1 percent of the vote.
The final days of the campaign revealed growing tensions between the top conservative candidates, Mr Ghalibaf and Mr Jalili, over who should withdraw to consolidate the conservative vote and avoid a runoff.
That attitude was hardly there at a rally on Wednesday at a sports stadium in Ghalibaf’s hometown of Mashhad. Video from the rally showed Ghalibaf holding an Iranian flag and waving to supporters who were chanting his name. “A strong Iran needs a strong president. A strong Iran needs a president who works tirelessly,” a cleric said while introducing him.
But things weren’t going so well for Jalili, who spoke at a rally in the same city that evening. With previous negotiations to consolidate the vote failing, the Quds Force’s top commander, Gen. Ismail Ghani, flew to Mashhad on Wednesday night and convened the two for emergency talks, according to Iranian news agencies and two officials familiar with the details of the talks, who requested anonymity to speak publicly about events.
Ghani said he wanted Jalili gone because of rising tensions in the region, including the Gaza war and the possibility of a conflict between Hezbollah and Israel that could draw Iran in. Given these issues, Ghani said Ghalibaf, with his military background and pragmatic mindset, was best suited to lead the government, according to an Iranian person familiar with the meeting.
It led to a notable public spat, with campaign officials from both sides attacking each other on social media, but neither candidate backed down.
The latest opinion poll by Iranian state television, released on Wednesday, the final day of the election campaign, showed Dr Pezeshkian leading with 23.5%, Mr Ghalibaf with 16.9%, Mr Jalili with 16.3%, 28.5% undecided and the rest split among the candidates, including those who had withdrawn.
The candidates were surprisingly forthright in their criticism of the status quo during the televised debate, demonstrating that an economy plagued by U.S. sanctions, corruption and mismanagement has become a top priority for voters and candidates, analysts said.
They argue the economy cannot be fixed without addressing foreign policy issues, including the conflict with the United States over its nuclear program and concerns about Iranian military intervention in the region through a network of militant proxy groups.
“The elections could bring about small but significant changes rather than a sudden shift,” said Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs and Middle Eastern studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. “The leadership’s calls for a different direction could lead the Islamic Republic to back down on some positions.”
While apathy remains high in most urban areas, voters in provinces with large Azerbaijani Turks and ethnic Kurdish populations were expected to turn out in larger numbers to support Pezeshkian, himself an Azerbaijani Turk who served as a member of parliament for the city of Tabriz, a major economic hub in northwestern East Azerbaijan. Pezeshkian has delivered election speeches in his native Turkish and Kurdish.
At a rally in Tabriz on Wednesday, the doctor was hailed as a national hero and a packed stadium sang Turkish nationalist songs, according to video and news reports. Ethnic and religious minorities rarely hold high office in Iran, so Azerbaijani activists say his presidential candidacy is generating interest and enthusiasm locally.
Hakkakpour said that while she and many other activists do not vote and do not believe Iran’s elections are free and fair, those who voted for Dr Pezeshkian want small improvements to their lives and communities, such as increased investment, preventing the drying up of Lake Urmia, a once-large body of water, and most importantly, a greater sense of inclusion.
