US President-elect Donald Trump has not yet taken the oath of office, but his plans for illegal immigration and solutions to this vexing problem are already becoming clear.
The appointment of Stephen Miller as White House deputy chief of staff for policy and Tom Homan as border czar is a sign that the deportation of thousands, if not millions, of illegal immigrants is imminent. It is abundantly clear that there is.
This far-fetched policy, along with the possibility of punitive tariffs that would encourage neighboring Mexico’s acquiescence, could stoke tensions and cause a major rupture with the United States’ closest trading partner.
But the recent immigration crackdown in Canada has pushed the close alliance even closer, potentially forging a stronger and richer relationship during President Trump’s second four-year term. Ottawa’s recent moves on immigration could serve as a north star to guide and even inform the nascent framework of an incoming administration keen to take a hard-line approach to this difficult issue. .
Canada will deny entry to an average of nearly 4,000 people per month in 2024, a 20 per cent increase compared to the 2023 average of 3,271. Furthermore, the Immigration Bureau is rejecting more tourist visa applications than it accepts per month.
In fact, in July 2024, Ottawa turned away 5,853 international travelers. The data also shows a significant decline in tourist visas, study permits and work permits from record highs in 2022 and 2023. Given Canada’s stance on immigration, President-elect Trump believes his government should be a more welcoming and active partner to its northern neighbor.
A deal would undoubtedly go a long way in easing lingering tensions between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President-elect Trump. President-elect Trump will never forget the moment Prime Minister Trudeau got heated on the microphone and snubbed him at a reception for a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit. Imbroglio learned that other leaders were secretly mocking Trump, leading to Trump’s sudden resignation. The United States’ closest allies are now firmly entrenched and in control of the areas that will usher in Trump’s second term.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau converse with then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (right) seated at a NATO roundtable meeting held in Watford, Hertfordshire, England, on December 4, 2019. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein)
The relationship between the United States and Canada is sacred and has been a staunch alliance for 150 years. Additionally, the two largest countries in the Western Hemisphere share the world’s longest border. The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) serves as the cornerstone of this military interoperability, protecting all of North America from air and missile threats.
Additionally, the two countries are each other’s largest trading partners, with nearly $3.6 billion in goods and services crossing their borders every day. Yet perhaps no issue is more salient, more pressing, or more important to maintaining these relationships than immigration.
Immigration was an important factor for voters who supported Trump’s candidacy, according to exit polls. Now he intends to follow through on his campaign promise of mass deportations, including using U.S. power against neighboring countries to cut off the flow of immigrants into the United States.
Then-presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Aurora, Colorado on October 11, 2024. (AP Photo/David Zarubowski, File)
In fact, the war of words is already becoming more dangerous. Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard has suggested that if the incoming Trump administration imposes tariffs on Mexican exports, the Mexican government could retaliate by imposing its own tariffs on U.S. imports. “If you impose a 25% tariff on me, I have to respond with tariffs,” said Ebrard, who served as Mexico’s foreign minister during the first Trump administration. Clearly, both countries are preparing for a trade war that could result in huge economic costs for both sides.
But Canada may escape the Trump administration’s wrath, as both countries simultaneously lead aggressive immigration crackdowns. And, befitting Mr. Trump’s bizarre desire to indulge in hyperbole, MAGA supporters believe that it was Mr. Trump himself who influenced Ottawa to move forward with such strict and draconian restrictions. There is no doubt that the next president will have enthusiastic supporters.
But like everything with President Trump, any closeness or good will always has an expiration date. The capricious commander-in-chief’s penchant for unpredictability is perhaps the only predictable quality of the next four years. Yet, despite the two countries being deeply intertwined in areas such as trade, defense, and global health, among others, immigration is (for now) the linchpin of President Trump’s anger.
President retiring joe biden “The United States has no closer friend, partner, or ally than Canada. Over the past 150 years, our two countries have had the closest and most extensive relationship…The U.S.-Canada partnership benefits not only our people but the world as well. And there’s nothing we can’t achieve by working together.”
That enduring partnership will now be tested like never before. As with President Trump’s first term, his return to power and calls for mass deportations are already having a negative impact on border policy across the hemisphere, and Canada in particular. Christopher Sands, Canada project director at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C., said: “This will help the two countries verify identity, coordinate border responses and even apply for visas.” This is an issue that the two countries can better overcome by working together by comparing their notes.
Then-presidential candidate Donald Trump references a graph on immigration during his speech at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on July 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Julia Nickinson)
There is hope that Prime Minister Trudeau and President Trump can thaw their frosty relationship and work together to help both countries and escape an impossible situation. The migration crisis is now not only a thorny political problem, but also a geopolitical opportunity. Both leaders expect a similar outcome and are ready to take aggressive action to confront this issue.
Like it or not, the United States and Canada are working together on this issue. Immigration is that nexus, and as long as Ottawa continues to take tough measures, President-elect Trump’s reckless and brazenly aggressive tendencies can and should be directed elsewhere.
Eric Hamm is a best-selling author and former member of the United States Congress. He was a contributor to TheHill.com and The Washington Diplomat. He lives in Washington DC.
