As the U.S. election approaches, CTVNews.ca will examine the Canada-U.S. relationship in a series of features.
We may be on different timelines, but Canadians and our neighbors to the south are saying the same thing this October.
Elections are approaching.
On the other side of the border, early voting has begun in earnest ahead of the climactic showdown between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, Canadians have about a year at most until the next election of the current government. Expiry date October 2025 This is if the parliament is not dissolved early.
Pierre Poièvre’s Conservative Party has a roughly 20-point lead over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, according to Nanos’ latest poll tracker. Pollster Nick Nanos calls this a “dream scenario” for the Conservatives.
That’s all $3 billion in cross-border trade between Canada and the US Whoever occupies the Oval Office next will undoubtedly have a major impact on Canada’s economy and diplomacy, but what is difficult to gauge is that the post-Trump-Harris world will be shaped by Canada’s own leadership. What kind of impact will it have on political destiny?
While a shift toward the Democratic or Republican parties in the American political landscape could be a boost for the party’s Canadian contemporaries, some say the opposite is more likely. In other words, President Harris or a second President Trump could push Canadian voters to the opposite end of the spectrum.
With months, weeks and days left until this U.S. election cycle ends, let’s take a look at what each outcome means for Canadian politics.
If Harris wins
Compared to the alternatives, it is no surprise that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau feels close to the White House, which is still in Democratic hands.
Prime Minister Trudeau was reportedly a supporter of Kamala Harris. First phone call to a foreign leader After she became vice-president in 2021, a summary of their meeting published by the Prime Minister’s Office in May said they were “looking”.[ing] be positive about the opportunity to Continue strong collaboration. ”
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the balcony of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House campus on Thursday, November 18, 2021 in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Jerome Guessaroli, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said the Harris/Waltz camp shows some convergent thinking Prime Minister Trudeau ran for Canada’s top job in 2015.
“Voters see Ms. Harris and Mr. Trudeau as new faces running for their respective elections, largely unburdened by the baggage of their past policies,” Guessaroiri said in a statement posted on the institute’s website. I mentioned this in my monthly column. “Prime Minister Trudeau’s ‘sunny ways’ and Harris’ ‘politics of joy’ both seek to bring optimism into the political debate.”
don abelsonThe McMaster University political science professor said such relationships could become important with the impending renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.
“With NAFTA, Canada was an uninvited guest at the table; that was because of NAFTA. [former prime minister Brian] Relationship with Mulroney [then-U.S. president] “We were able to force ourselves to the table,” George H.W. Bush said in an interview with CTVNews.ca last week.
“The bottom line is: What is the temperature in the room? Can our two governments work together?”
Some are calling it an explosion of momentum in the early days of Harris’ campaign. Good sign for Prime Minister TrudeauNanos points out that a winning Democratic ticket could tell a different story to Liberal party insiders, meaning replacing an unpopular candidate could be the key to victory. .
“These results show that the Democratic Party, which was not competitive with Donald Trump, has made its home country’s incumbent president (Joe Biden) its turf, united around one candidate, raised funds, and entered the race again. It means we’re back,” he said in an interview Monday. .
Nanos made it clear that while Harris’ victory is not necessarily bad news for the Liberal Party as a whole, Trudeau himself is likely to face additional pressure over his position as leader.
“In my experience, leaders who are facing a crisis of confidence within their party rarely win elections,” Nanos said. “If the Liberals can’t agree that Justin Trudeau should remain prime minister, why should Canadians?”
if trump wins
The other side of America’s great coin toss is that former US President Donald Trump’s return to power will see changes in US policy on everything from 10% tariffs on imports (which could include tariffs from the US) to what he has suggested. expected to bring about Canada), to the balance of money, power and military power in NATO.
Some federal Liberals have accused the party of trying to link opposition leader Poilievre to Trump. “American” politics.
This summer, Ontario Liberal MP Mark Gerretsen went so far as to label Poilievre a “Trump Northerner.”
Nanos argues that it is “unfair” to directly compare the two leaders in terms of their personal histories and professed beliefs, but it is reasonable to consider their tone and style in the political arena. I claim that it is.
Crossing the 45th parallel in U.S. election strategy is not unheard of, and Mr. Mulroney cited President Ronald Reagan’s “Morning in America” message in the 1980s and former Prime Minister Jean Chretien’s policy bill.・Mr. Nanos points out that he was inspired by the similarities with former President Clinton. 10 years later.
But if Trump wins, Poièvre’s tone could change “to make sure he has an identity that’s hard to associate with Donald Trump,” Nanos said.
“What we’re seeing is more focus on Pierre Poièvre’s personal story, which is very different from Donald Trump,” Nanos said. “He will want to introduce himself to Canadians.”
Opposition Leader Pierre Poièvre speaks about the opposition motion in the House of Commons on Tuesday, September 24, 2024 in Ottawa. Canadian Press/Adrian Wilde
Polling source Pollara Strategic Insights for May Canadians believe Poièvre is better suited to deal with President Trump than Trudeau, the survey found. Angus Reid Institute (ARI) in July The responses were similar when it came to trade negotiations, but among voters who weren’t completely enthusiastic, NDP-leaning respondents were “more likely to say they would support the Liberals if Trump was re-elected.” ARI has discovered.
This kind of gut check, which Pollara’s research publication calls “conventional wisdom,” suggests that a Republican victory in November could drive a wedge between Canada’s Conservative Party and voters.
“What percentage of Canadians are prepared to accept not just Poièvre, but Poièvre’s relationship with Trump?” Abelson asked. “There is still a strong desire in this country to adopt more moderate policies.”
But Nanos says Canada’s historical tendency to take positions politically opposed to the United States has not been consistently true, as evidenced by the Mulroney-Reagan and Chrétien-Clinton eras.
“Whoever wins doesn’t necessarily have a backlash effect,” he says. “This is more of a reaction to some kind of politics.”
Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and President Ronald Reagan walk in front of a cavalcade of Royal Canadian Mounted Police at Quebec City Airport on March 17, 1985. Canadian Press/Paul Chiasson)
Trickle-down politics?
The political policies and precursors of the past decade of the Trump administration have been cited as an attempt to understand and explain the passage of Brexit and the successes (both recent and long-standing) of the British leadership. Italy and Hungarythe resurgence of far-right parties in Germany, Austria and France, and the reinvention of modern Canadian conservatism, with a third new leader now taking the Federalist name since President Trump stepped into the Oval Office. crowned.
But for both Mr. Nanos and Mr. Abelson, this is not a story that begins and ends with the former U.S. president himself.
“There are a lot of people who are struggling to pay for groceries and pay for housing. They’re very frustrated and angry. And they see Donald Trump as a way to punish the establishment,” Nanos said. he said.
“These are forces that…many Western democracies are embroiled in, and how we respond to them and how we play out politically could have a significant impact on election outcomes. ”
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump waves during a campaign event at the Cobb Energy Performing Arts Center on Tuesday, October 15, 2024 in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
However, these forces of change are not all moving in the same direction.
In the UK, the 14-year Conservative government came to an end with the center-left Labor Party’s landslide victory in the elections in July of this year, and although right-wing leader Marine Le Pen made a breakthrough in the French parliamentary elections in June, The coalition of the Fists and the Left similarly flourished, achieving the status of France’s main opposition force.
For Abelson, regardless of what the U.S. Electoral College vote count turns out to be in the coming days, it’s about the political climate Canada is in and how connected Canada should be to its neighbors both near and far. requires calculation.
“We know that [Trump] He won 75 million votes in 2020…that huge bloc, literally half of the electorate, supports him and his policies. So if that’s the case, even if Harris wins, that bloc won’t disappear,” he said.
“My concern as a Canadian is that we’re not doing enough to protect ourselves from the political winds in the United States, but I think there’s more we can do.”
With files from The Associated Press and The Canadian Press
