On Thursday, Conservative leader Pierre Poirievre put on a great show, even writing a letter. call NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh called for withdrawing from the NDP’s Supply and Confidence Agreement with the Liberal government.
Poirièvre argued that Singh was abiding by the agreement in order to qualify for a parliamentary pension (Poirièvre became eligible for a parliamentary pension in 2010, when he was 31).
So, Poirievre said, “Canadians now call him ‘Sin the Traitor,'” a nickname he himself gave to the NDP leader. (Poirievre’s penchant for nicknames is reminiscent of a certain U.S. presidential candidate.)
It’s probably no coincidence that Poirievre’s call came in the middle of a by-election campaign in Manitoba’s Elmwood-Transcona riding, where the Conservatives traditionally come second to the NDP.
Indeed, Poirievre’s broader interest in Singh no doubt has something to do with the fact that some of the constituencies in which the Conservatives hope to make the biggest gains in the next election are those in British Columbia and northern Ontario currently represented by NDP members.
As soon as Poirievre finished speaking, the Conservative party sent out a fundraising appeal telling supporters that the Conservative leader had called on Singh to “withdraw from the Carbon Tax Coalition.”
The NDP more or less shrugged in response, but acknowledged that they could walk away from the agreement at any time.
The first formal agreement of its kind
The historic Supply and Confidence Agreement between the Liberal and New Democratic Parties – the first formal agreement between the two parties at the federal level, though precedents existed at the provincial level – is now two and a half years old and has become the basis for the business of the House of Commons, with the current Parliament now in power. The longest-running minority parliament in modern Canadian history.
Of course, it is inevitable that this agreement (and this Congress) will eventually come to an end. Officially, the agreement between the two parties will expire when the House of Representatives chooses to recess for the summer in June 2025, ahead of the October 2025 election.
(Strictly speaking, an Act of Parliament requires elections to be held every five years, but the government has recently followed a non-binding 2007 law that requires elections to be held at least every four years.)
But if the endgame is near, it will be an intriguing test of political and practical imperatives.
With the Conservatives performing well in the opinion polls, Premier Pierre Poirievre is calling on Prime Minister Jagmeet Singh to end the NDP-Liberal pact and call a federal election in the fall.
The political side of the Liberal-New Democratic Party deal
Poirievre’s political mission is clear: he wants to bring the Liberal Party and the New Democrats together ahead of the next federal election.
It would certainly be advantageous for the Conservatives’ purposes to associate the NDP with an unpopular government, and the Liberals with a party that some centrist voters may consider too extreme.
The Liberals and New Democrats have good reason to reach an agreement in March 2022, and both parties stand to gain substantially from it.
But to some extent, the arrangement also made Poirievre’s life easier: the Conservatives could oppose the government without repercussions, and it gave him the basis to claim that the Liberals and the New Democrats were one and the same.
For the same reasons Poirievre is keen to bring the two parties together, the Liberals and New Democrats will likely also be trying to differentiate themselves from each other between now and the next election. The only question, then, is when or how the pact will officially end.
Fifty years ago, the Liberal minority government relied on the support of the NDP. Plan your own defeat The government drafted a budget that it knew the New Democrats could not support. Pierre Trudeau’s Liberal Party then won a majority in the 1974 federal election.
While the current situation is not entirely analogous, today’s Liberals and New Democrats could similarly find (or make up) reasons to withdraw from the agreement. Perhaps the NDP will determine that they have new non-negotiable demands and realize that the government has no intention of meeting them.
The end of the Confidence and Supply Agreement doesn’t necessarily mean an immediate election. The Liberals could seek the support of the Bloc Québécois or continue negotiating with the NDP on a case-by-case basis. (Is there a world in which the Conservatives could find a reason to support a government bill? Probably not, but stranger things have happened.)
Whatever the political calculations, there are very real, practical issues at stake.
Government House Leader Karina Gould said she is “fairly confident” that the Supply and Confidence Agreement with the NDP, which has underpinned the Liberal minority government since March 2022, will remain in place until it expires in June 2025. The power panel will discuss the political position for both parties around maintaining the agreement.
The deal isn’t over yet, but it’s still useful
Widespread speculation that the deal will close this autumn seems unlikely, but at least some elements of the original confidence and supply agreement remain incomplete.
Pharmacare The bill has not passed the Senate, and implementing legislation is pending. Revision of the Election Law It is currently being debated in the House of Representatives, and the promised Long-Term Care Security Act has yet to be introduced.
The Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party A plan to provide free birth control and diabetes treatmentThe federal government has yet to enter into any agreements with state governments to actually deliver these benefits. Federal Dental Programs And it won’t be fully implemented until early next year.
And while the New Democrats may not see it as their problem or responsibility, dissolving Parliament is Other Initiatives These include the Online Harms Act, the First Nations Clean Water Act, and some greenhouse gas emissions regulations that have yet to be finalized.
The most underrated aspect of the Liberal-New Democrat pact is how well it has helped advance the functioning and work of the House of Commons and its committees. Although politics demands that parties oppose one another, and Canadian political culture is not accustomed to parties working together, a minority parliament, implicitly or explicitly, effectively requires some degree of cooperation.
If an election were held now A minority parliament is likelyCanada’s political culture Political parties get used to working together Or perhaps Parliament would not be able to stand on its own, and Canadians would have to get used to elections being held every few years.
Either way, a deal between the Liberal Party and the New Democrats appears to be in the final stages, but it probably won’t be the last such deal.
