The Houston Texans will continue their incredible run this season as they travel to Baltimore to take on the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Baltimore Ravens. The two teams met in Week 1, with the Ravens winning 25-9, but a lot has changed in 18 weeks. The Texans opened the playoffs with a 45-14 victory over the favorites, the Cleveland Browns, and now set their sights on the Ravens, who earned a bye in Super Wild Card Weekend. The opening kick of this divisional round matchup is scheduled for Saturday at 4:30 PM ET.
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unexpected guest
Head coach DeMeco Ryans, rookie quarterback CJ Stroud, and the Houston Texans as a team should never have been here. Ryans, in his first year as head coach, couldn’t have turned things around so quickly for a Texans team that won just three games last season. Stroud, a rookie quarterback who was the second pick in the draft, couldn’t have been more ready and able to play at an elite level right away. There was no way the Texans would have improved so quickly and won three games to claim the AFC South title. Heading into last week’s Wild Card matchup against the Browns, the Texans were once again ignored, coming in as the Browns’ home dog. But CJ Stroud and the Texans defense had other ideas. Stroud became the youngest quarterback to win a playoff game while throwing three touchdowns, and the Texans returned an interception for two touchdowns to beat the Browns 45-14 last Saturday.
“We are in this position because of CJ.” coach lyons said. “He’s a special, special young man. A special player. He continues to shine in the biggest moments. Our entire team is relying on him and he has the shoulders to carry that weight.”
Go back and run 4️⃣8️⃣ pic.twitter.com/eIDxP7luCH
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) January 18, 2024
The Texans and Stroud are different teams than the one that played the Ravens in Week 1. Still, despite making his first NFL start in that game, Stroud didn’t throw a pick and kept the Texans in the game until the third quarter against the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The turnover battle ended in a 2-1 victory, with both teams averaging close to each other in yards per play, with the Ravens averaging 5.9 yards per play and the Texans averaging 5.5 yards per play.
So far this season, the Texans rank 11th in the NFL in scoring offense. Although they are only 29th in rushing, keep in mind that running back Devin Singletary has averaged 4.5 yards per carry in recent weeks and missed the first matchup. The Texans rank sixth in passing this season, behind Stroud. In perhaps the most important statistic, the Texans are No. 1 in the NFL in giveaways per game. Stroud hasn’t made any major mistakes this season, and his offense has rarely been hurt. They won the turnover battle against the Browns last week as well.
Defensively, the Texans have taken Ryans’ teachings very well. They were second in the NFL against the run, though they finished near the bottom last season. The Texans have allowed fewer passing yards per game on the road than at home this season, but are 24th in the passing game and 6th in the NFL in the passing game over the final month of the season. The Texans are in the middle of the pack in recruiting this season, ranking 14th in the NFL.
Main injuries: WR J. Metchie III (foot), DT M. Collins (hip), LB B. Cashman (knee), DE J. Greenard (ankle), DE W. Anderson Jr. (ankle), DT S Rankins (ribs), FB A. Beck (back), WR R. Woods (hip), OT L. Tunsil (leg), and DE J. Hughes (ankle) are all questionable.
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Ravens get stronger
The Baltimore Ravens return to action Saturday at home against the upstart Texans. The Ravens’ starters have essentially been sidelined for two weeks, and most of the team’s key players will miss Week 17’s game against the Steelers, where the No. 1 seed has already been determined. The Ravens finished the regular season with a 13-4 record, making quarterback Lamar Jackson the leading candidate to win NFL MVP. Jackson finished the season with over 3,600 passing yards, 24 touchdown passes, and just seven interceptions. He also gained a team-leading 821 yards and scored five touchdowns. Still, all eyes will be on Jackson in the playoffs. By the age of 27, he had won the most games in NFL history (58 wins). However, in that time, Jackson has recorded just one playoff victory, going 1-3 with four touchdowns and seven turnovers in those games. This is Jackson’s time.
“Lamar has always had a single-minded focus, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen him focus like this.” said Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh. “He’s been like that since the offseason we talked about, ever since he’s been in OTAs.” [organized team activities]Since the training camp, [he’s been] I’m locked in one day at a time. That’s the way he’s worked. It’s reflected in the way he practices and plays. ”
“I’m doing everything I can to get back and be ready.” 🥹🫶 pic.twitter.com/uyuH3KdcBR
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) January 17, 2024
The Ravens will bring an offense that ranks third in the NFL in scoring. The offense could get a big boost if All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews returns after being sidelined since Nov. 16 with an ankle injury. He has been practicing limitedly this week and could be available. The Ravens’ ground attack also ranks third in the NFL, and the addition of Dalvin Cook, acquired on waivers after being released by the Jets, has improved there as well. Cook gives the Ravens speed and pass-catching pieces out of the backfield to complement bruiser Gus Edwards. The Ravens’ passing attack ranks just 21st in the NFL with Andrews’ potential return and the added week of rest to help WRs Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. recover. , is getting back on track. Turnover is a problem. Jackson has played in the playoffs before and ranks 12th in the NFL in giveaways per game this season.
Defensively, the Ravens have been one of the most dominant teams in the league this season. The Ravens are No. 1 in scoring defense in the NFL this season. They finished just 25th this season, but held the Texans in check in the opening game. The Ravens rank fifth in the NFL in passing and will face their biggest challenge yet against Stroud and the strong Texans passing game. The Ravens’ defense has been opportunistic all season. They rank No. 1 in the NFL in takeaways this season and will look to pressure Stroud into making mistakes on Saturday.
Key injuries: LB J. Clowney (illness), WR T. Wallace (knee), LB D. Phillips (shoulder), TE M. Andrews (ankle), CB M. Humphrey (calf), G K. Zeitler (knee). ), S.K. Hamilton (knee), WR.D. Duvernay (back), and S.A. Washington (chest) are all questionable.
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Insider status:
evaluation:
These two teams have certainly changed since the Ravens opened the season with a 25-9 win. Baltimore has emerged as the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, while the Texans have the makings of a team that will challenge for AFC glory for years to come. If you dig deeper into this game, you’ll see that the two teams are more evenly matched than the lines indicate. The Ravens and Texans are both 8-4 against teams with winning records this season. Both quarterbacks have done a great job of protecting the football through the air this season, totaling 12 interceptions while throwing 50 touchdowns on nearly 1,000 pass attempts. Jackson is the more dynamic runner of the two, and Stroud is the more dynamic passer.
The Ravens have a good pass defense and the Texans have a good run defense, which could offset each team’s big advantage in this game. The Ravens have the advantage of experience, but are just 1-3 in the playoffs with Jackson at the helm. Stroud is already tied for a postseason win after just one game. The truth is, I want the Ravens to win this game, but it’s going to be a tough one. In the end, the game is likely to be decided by a field goal, and the Ravens’ significant advantage with kicker Justin Tucker could make the difference. However, I don’t see this being a two-possession game for the Ravens. Expect the Texans to do what they’ve done all year under Ryans, fight to the end and keep this game close.
Get the Texans +9.5
Prediction: Texans +9.5
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Insider status:
evaluation:
We were prepared to fall below the opening total of 46 points, but we were down nearly 3 points, so we decided to call it over. The Ravens enter the game with an offensive line that ranks third in the NFL in scoring. They have also exceeded the point total in six of their last 10 games and could be pitched for a 10th game if much of the team’s starting offense, including Jackson, sits. The Texans rank 11th in the NFL in scoring offense, coming off a 45-point performance against the Browns. Even though it’s mid-January, temperatures are expected to be mild but cold in Baltimore on Saturday, according to the weather forecast. This will be critical for a Houston team that plays the majority of its games in domes and in warm-weather cities. I like both defenses, so I don’t expect this game to be a shootout, and I might sweat it out late. Still, the line is too low to lean over.
Please take over.
Prediction: 43.5 or higher
