Giants vs. Bills odds, picks, and predictions

There are some big spreads on the NFL odds board for Week 6, but none higher than the pile of chalk piled up in Orchard Park, New York for Sunday Night Football.

NFL Week 6 odds have Buffalo Bills up to 15 points when the in-state rival New York Giants called for a prime-time nonconference contest.

New York made a miraculous comeback from 0-5 against Arizona, but they had lost three straight heading into Week 6, losing those games by a combined score of 85-31.

The Bills return from London and lose a hand, and with more serious injuries to their defense, the G-Men are in a bad mood for Buffalo. Josh Allen & Co. will shoulder the burden of New York’s troubled depth chart.

I thoroughly analyze SNF odds for Sunday Night Football and provide the best NFL picks and predictions for the Giants at Bills on October 15th.

Be sure to check out our TNF Prop Pick and Josh Allen Odds and Pick Spotlight as well!

Giants vs. Bills odds

Giants vs. Bills predictions

New York Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale gave the NFL media some gems over the past two weeks.

His most recent “notable quote” was Martindale’s praise of Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen as he prepares for Sunday night.

Asked about Allen, Martindale told reporters, “Dan Marino’s arm, Derrick Henry’s feet, Stephen Curry’s mindset of being able to take shots from anywhere on the court.”

In a previous meeting with the Bills, Martindale’s defense (running with the Baltimore Ravens staff at the time) was pretty good at limiting Allen’s “shots,” especially when it came to plays with his feet. I worked. In the past three meetings with Baltimore, Allen has gained just 38 total rushing yards on 13 carries.

But it was Baltimore.

Martindale won’t have much to work with in New York, especially as the depth is crumbling heading into Week 6. The Giants could be missing two starting linebackers for a unit that loves to bring blitzes. Martindale has dialed up the extra pass his rusher on over 41% of his dropbacks. This is his third highest blitz rate in the nation.

Allen has the best wheels of any QB in the NFL and is extremely dangerous when pressured. He finished last year as the highest-rated running QB under pressure ( pro football focus) and currently holds the number one spot in the same ratings this season, as well as top run ratings against blitzes.

Allen may have to make some magic happen with his “Derrick Henry feet” when the G-Men bring in the Heat. That’s because he could lose two of his top pressure-relief options in tight end Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, both of whom are questionable.

So far in 2022, Allen hasn’t had to run much. He had six carries for 36 yards against the Jets in Week 1 and ran three times for 46 yards against Washington. Allen has also found the end zone with his feet in each of the past three games, rushing four times for 17 yards on the ground and scoring against Jacksonville.

NFL player prop odds for Week 6 have Allen’s rushing yardage total set at 27.5 over/under.

At least with multiple players projecting the Bills QB to run for 39.5 yards, it shouldn’t be too difficult to beat that number. My number came up 32 yards past the field on Sunday Night Football.

my best bet: Josh Allen, rushing yards over 27.5 (-114 on FanDuel)
At the time of writing, selections may not reflect live odds.

Giants vs Bills same game parlay

Wink tries to thwart Allen with electricity and burns the G-Men with his legs. All of the player’s models lie north of this rapidly increasing total.

Allen has rushed for a touchdown in three straight games and has attempted a touchdown in seven of his last 13 games overall.

My power rating had the Bills at -18 before adjusting for New York’s injured list.

Learn how to bet on same game parlays with these helpful tips and strategies.

Giants vs. Bills spread and over/under analysis

To get an idea of ​​how far the Giants have fallen in the first five weeks, consider the offseason odds for this game if Buffalo were a touchdown favorite at home in Week 6. This is more than an increase in touchdowns from offseason opinions.

Before Week 5, the forward market had shifted to Bills -12.5. The official spread for Week 6 hit the board at Buffalo-15 after Buffalo lost to Jacksonville 25-20 in London and New York was lethargic 31-16 by Miami. .

My NFL Power Ratings yield an unadjusted Bills number of -18, and Covers Consensus showed 59% of the picks were “circling the wagons” with the Bills on Sunday night, leading to more Big spreads don’t scare early bettors.

Also affecting the opening number was a neck injury in which Giants QB Daniel Jones missed Thursday’s practice and is listed as questionable. Jones is among a long list of starters who have been labeled questionable for Sunday night’s start, including running back Saquan Barkley, tight end Darren Waller and nearly the entire offensive line.

If Jones is out, backup Tyrod Taylor will start against the Bills defense. And given Jones’ play so far in 2023, there may not be much difference in terms of spread value between the two, other than Jones’ ability to run the football.

Taylor may be missing pass protection and a lot of weapons, but the Bills’ stopping unit ranks eighth in EPA allowed per play. The Bills’ pass rush is the centerpiece of the Bills’ stopping unit, with the league’s best pressure rate (32.6%) and NFL-high 21 sacks so far this season.

The Bills were without key pillars of their defense, losing coverage LB Matt Milano to a broken leg, DT Darquan Jones to a torn pectoral muscle, and cornerback Tre’Davious White to a torn Achilles tendon. However, veteran edge Von Miller returned in Week 5 on limited snaps and is expected to get even more minutes Sunday.

The Giants will likely have a similar struggle with the Bills’ offense on Sunday night. New York ranks 30th in EPA allowed per play and 28th in DVOA. These are two important advanced measurements.

The Giants are scoring 0.513 points per play in their last three games against San Francisco, Seattle and Miami, with Buffalo ranking third in EPA and DVOA and once again facing an elite scoring attack.

This over/under total starts at 46.5 points and drops to 44.5 points, with Buffalo expected to account for the majority of the scoring.

The Bills don’t let up on the gas even with big wins, as we’ve seen them go for the throat in lopsided wins over Las Vegas, Washington, and Miami. So don’t let the game script fool you into thinking Buffalo is going to win. They took a big lead in the second half and controlled the pace.

The Bills are 2-3 over/under this season, while the Giants are scoring just 0.194 points per play thanks to their pop-gun offense and are 1-4 in the O/U count (31st).

This is where things get tricky for the G-Men in Week 6. Even though Buffalo had to return from a short trip to London last weekend, New York is playing its second straight road game and third road game in the past four. .

Orchard Park’s weather forecast called for light rain to begin the week, but as of Thursday, skies over Highmark Stadium will be cloudy with light winds up to 9 mph for kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET. It is expected that

Giants vs. Bills betting trends you need to know

Under head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are 18-2 SU and 11-7-2 ATS (60%) when scoring a touchdown or more (-7.5 or more). includes an ATS count of 7-5-2 (57%). When set as a two-digit favorite. See more of his NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Bills.

Giants vs. Bills match information

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Giants vs. Bills Weather

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