French government collapses after opposition vote of no confidence

On Wednesday, the French government was overthrown in a vote of no confidence, plunging the euro zone’s second-largest economy into a period of deep political uncertainty.

A total of 331 MPs from both the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition and the far-right National Rally (RN) supported the no-confidence motion in the House of Commons, far exceeding the 288 votes needed for passage.

Both left and right factions filed motions on Monday after Prime Minister Michel Barnier used special constitutional powers to force the social security budget bill through parliament without a vote.

The National Rally had announced that it would vote in favor of its own “motion of censure” against the government and support the NFP’s motion.

either movement It required the support of at least 288 of the 574 members of the National Assembly. To see the vote of no confidence succeed. The far-right and left-wing coalitions together have around 333 members of parliament, and some were expected to abstain from voting.

In a debate before the vote, Barnier told MPs that he was “not afraid” of losing the election, but called on the parties to work together and “act beyond the common interests” to overcome divisions. He said it was an “honor” to serve as prime minister, before receiving a standing ovation from French politicians.

Mr Barnier’s defeat in the vote of confidence means he will be forced to tender his resignation to French President Emmanuel Macron, just three months after taking over as prime minister on September 5. Barnier’s government was the shortest-lived of France’s Fifth Republic, which began in 1958.

The prime minister’s ouster comes after weeks of struggle with opposition parties trying to reach an agreement on parts of the 2025 budget, which includes 60 billion euros ($63 billion) worth of spending cuts and tax increases needed to tame France’s finances. This happened after negotiations. fiscal deficit, i.e. expected to be 6.1% in 2024.

But ultimately Mr. Barnier’s minority government failed to convince opponents on either side of the political spectrum. The government faces the prospect of further haggling over a wide-ranging budget that needs to be passed by December 21, with the government set to support the government until disagreements over spending came to a head earlier this week. They were susceptible to the whims of the national assemblies to which they had tacitly agreed. .

The appointment of Barnier, a right-wing conservative member of the Republican Party, has been controversial since September, following the victories of the RN and NFP in parliamentary elections in June and July, respectively.

On Wednesday, an ideologically distant bloc rallied around a shared antipathy towards Barnier, his government and his budget plans in what some analysts described as an “unholy alliance” of political rivals.

Mr Barnier is expected to resign with immediate effect, but Mr Macron is likely to ask him to continue as caretaker prime minister while he searches for a replacement. New parliamentary elections cannot be held until June-July next year, 12 months after the previous vote.

When it comes to the budget, Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group’s managing director for Europe, said the ouster of Mr. Barnier and his government means that “all unfinished legislative work becomes their responsibility.”

Rahman said in emailed comments Monday that an emergency budget bill would likely be passed within the month, effectively rolling over the 2024 tax law until a 2025 budget is agreed upon. However, time is of the essence in appointing a new prime minister, as a caretaker government will not be able to pass the 2025 budget. This has put pressure on President Macron to quickly select a new prime minister.

The formation of a government will be closely monitored “including the extent of Macron’s personal involvement in the process,” said Carsten Nickell, deputy director of research at risk consultancy Teneo. Mr Nickell warned that Mr Barnier’s position as interim chairman could be prolonged as new elections would not be possible before the summer.

Mr. Barnier’s fate will depend on the dangers that whoever Mr. Macron chooses as the next prime minister will face as he attempts to reach agreement on the budget and other major policy decisions, given the deep divisions in French politics. It will be a strong warning of difficulties. Nothing has happened since Macron made the wrong decision to call a snap election earlier this year.

Mr Macron, who returned from a three-day state visit to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday evening, has kept a low profile in recent weeks amid the ongoing political turmoil that has engulfed his government, a turmoil that ultimately affected him. It was brought about by decision-making. Mr Macron will now face pressure over the appointment of a new prime minister and his own position.

“President Macron can appoint any prime minister of his choice to replace Barnier, including Barnier himself,” Rahman said, adding that the French parliament “can also denounce his new choices whenever it wishes.” ” he added.

“But both Mr. Macron and the deeply divided parliamentary majority that opposes him will need to carefully calculate their strategies,” Rahman said.

“The left and the far right… have to be careful. If they criticize the new prime minister, they will have no legal authority to propose a carryover emergency budget. The government could, in theory, There is no legal basis to raise taxes to pay for pensions, police, health care and defense – or [National] Members of Congress’ salaries,” he pointed out.

Meanwhile, the president is likely to face demands from both the left and the right to resign in order to hold new presidential elections long before those scheduled for 2027.

Analyst Kirsten Nickell said that Macron’s resignation would trigger a presidential election within 35 days, adding: “While that seems unlikely, Snap polls from earlier this year at least showed Macron alone. “This should serve as a reminder of our tendency to make decisions that are difficult to make.”

Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman said Macron is likely to ignore any pressure to resign, but “a new crisis will put him at the center of the political game once again.”