Europe prepares to promote ‘America First’ no matter who wins US election

European politicians and policymakers are busy preparing Regardless of who is chosen as the next leader in the White House after next week’s elections, U.S. protectionism will likely increase further.

The presidential race remains close in the final days, with polls consistently showing the candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris, and former President Donald Trump tied in key battleground states and nationwide. It has been evaluated as follows.

“No matter who wins, it’s going to be ‘America first,'” a senior European diplomat, who declined to be named because of the sensitive nature of transatlantic relations, told CNBC last week.

“The main concern for Americans is the economy, and the answer will be more economic nationalism. I don’t agree with that, but I don’t see a way around it,” said one senior diplomat. spoke. In secret talks between EU leaders.

The comments came after German Finance Minister Christian Lindner warned CNBC on Friday that the United States could retaliate if it starts a trade war with the European Union.

“In that case, there will need to be a diplomatic effort to convince whoever is in the White House that it is not in the best interest of the United States to have a trade conflict with the United States.” [the] European Union,” he said at the IMF’s annual meeting in Washington, DC.

Trade with the United States is very important for European countries. The EU and the US have The world’s largest bilateral trade and investment relationshipIt reached a record 1.2 trillion euros ($1.29 trillion) in 2021, according to data from the European Commission, the EU’s executive body.

To some extent, Harris is seen as likely to continue current President Joe Biden’s policies, which include the Economic Inflation Control Act (a $369 billion U.S. budget aimed at climate change and energy policy). It will be remembered in Europe for its comprehensive legislation. The IRA upset many European leaders because of its perceived protectionist nature.

Under a Republican president, “America First” policies are likely to have an even greater impact on the European economy. President Trump has threatened to impose 10% tariffs on European goods, which could burden the region’s exporters and weaken its economy, according to Goldman Sachs data. EUR It will increase by 10%.

President Trump’s first tenure in the White House was a difficult time for some European leaders, who expressed distaste for the former president’s style and confrontational tone. The two countries often had different views on trade, defense, and technology, among other issues.

“Trump can’t surprise us anymore. We know how to deal with it, and we’ve had to deal with him before,” an anonymous senior diplomat also told CNBC.

Another EU official, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of relations with the US, told CNBC: “There is no panic. We are very realistic, but of course we are open to both scenarios.” We have to be prepared,” he said.

The official added that the European Commission is working on a “bold” initiative, regardless of who becomes the next president.

CNBC reported in May 2023 that European officials were already secretly preparing for a possible Trump return. This means a focus on breaking the US’ dependence on China, which remains a goal of EU leaders.

In a statement in October, the EU’s 27 leaders said: He called for further efforts.

“This highlights the urgency to take effective action,” the statement added.

Beyond the European institutions in Brussels, there is disagreement among various EU capitals regarding the US presidency. Leaders from around the world have made various statements regarding the possibility of Mr. Trump becoming president for a second term.

prime minister of hungary Viktor Orban reportedly told reporters in Brussels: Earlier this month, Trump said he would “pop open a few bottles of champagne” when he returned to the White House. Just two days after U.S. voters head to the polls, EU leaders are scheduled to meet in the Hungarian capital Budapest, where they are likely to discuss the election results over dinner.

“We definitely won’t celebrate if Trump wins,” a third EU official who requested anonymity and was scheduled to attend the meeting in Budapest told CNBC. The official added that the U.S. election is “very concerning as we approach 200 votes.” [swing state] It’s Pennsylvania. ”

The official added that whatever the outcome, “it won’t be as shocking as last time, and Europe has since improved its strategic autonomy and defense spending.”