Donald Trump is likely entering 2024 in an unprecedented position as the front-runner in the election.
It’s an unfamiliar position for a candidate who suddenly topped most 2024 general election polls in a way he never did in past campaigns.
This is despite the fact that his supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol and were disappointed in his behavior, even though there were 91 criminal charges against him. Pro-authoritarianism and anti-immigration There was rhetoric and efforts to remove his name from ballots in some states.
The Democratic strategist and former aide to Barack Obama lamented the current situation with less than a year until the November 2024 election.
“It’s very bleak,” David Axelrod said on his podcast, reviewing recent polling results that show US President Joe Biden trailing.
“This is bad.”
Some professional election analysts are hesitant to give President Trump the F-word, “front-runner,” so early in the campaign.
One year before the next US presidential election, US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump appear headed for a rematch, with opinion polls showing Mr Trump has an advantage despite his legal issues. It is shown.
What the early polls mean
“Yes, he’s in the lead,” Drew McCoy, president of election data firm Decision Desk HQ, said in an interview with CBC News.
“Right now, we see it as a toss-up with Trump slightly in favor.”
Most recent polls show Trump leading nationally and in battleground states, but there are exceptions.
“It’s a tie for us,” said Tim Murrow, a Quinnipiac University polling analyst, adding that Biden and Trump, his likely rivals in this week’s general election, each had a 47% approval rating. .
“I’m already biting my nails.”
Born in Canada, Director of Data Science at the University of Pennsylvania public opinion poll program Mark Trussler has a similar view. He said, “It’s hard to call this anything other than a pure toss-up.”
If this election were held in another country, Canadians might be more inclined to wait a few months before paying attention.
However, considering the possibility, President Trump’s policies This race has a special interest in shaping everything from trade to military alliances.
So how substantial is this early lead?
Trump is ahead in most ways. National survey Over the past two months, there has usually been a difference of a few points. But that’s not all.he has led swing state surveyby various pollsterswhere elections are decided.
He is performing about 7 percentage points better against Biden than at the moment. four years ago In an average of polls on the RealClearPolitics site.
Mr. Trump is very close to winning the 2020 electoral college, and his approval rating against Mr. Biden is currently about 10 points higher than on the previous election day.
Strategy candidate
Both major candidates are unpopular, and their success may depend largely on whether voters pay attention to the other candidate.
According to McCoy, Trump is trying to turn this election into a referendum on President Biden’s disillusionment with inflation and the diplomatic crisis.
Mr. Biden, on the other hand, will likely try to focus voters on the impact of Mr. Trump’s return to power, including on American democracy.
Watch | Biden’s ads focus on drawing contrasts with Trump.
Readers may wonder how valuable polls are nearly a year before Election Day.
If history is any guide, it may be a degree of prophecy.in year 2012, 2016 and 2020, a year-long poll pinpointed the ultimate popular vote winner. Meanwhile, opinion polls continued to fluctuate, missing President Obama’s eventual breakthrough. in 2008.
All of this is a reminder that it’s difficult to predict which issues will drive the conversation a year from now.
At this point in past cycles, experts did not predict the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic election, or the 2016 hack and email breach.
“There’s a lot to play for in golf,” Malloy said.
Elections begin after the holidays
The election officially begins after the holidays. The first presidential primaries will be held in January, with the Iowa caucuses on January 15th and the New Hampshire primary on January 23rd.
“This is where it really begins,” McCoy said. “As trite and cliché as it is, campaigns are important.”
It’s hard to imagine Trump’s coronation as the Republican nominee falling apart, but if it were to happen, it would most likely be in early New Hampshire. open primary States where non-Republicans can vote.
And dark clouds are gathering in the forecast for the general election. Is it possible that Trump will be tried and convicted during the campaign?
Former US President Donald Trump has repeated his campaign rhetoric that illegal immigrants are “tainting the blood” of America. The White House condemned the comment, which some have compared to the language used in Nazi Germany.
Although his trial schedule is currently on partial hiatus, with the Supreme Courtthe earliest challenge to the case is scheduled to begin in March.
Although the criminal charges have not hurt Trump, many of his supporters told pollsters that they would change their votes if Trump was actually found guilty.
“This is a whole new ball game,” Malloy said.
The Supreme Court is also expected to consider an effort to remove Trump’s name from ballots in Colorado over his connection to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, an effort that has failed in other states. It ends in
On the other hand, some people caution against relying too much on opinion polls.
Even avid consumers of political news may not fully appreciate how hard modern polling companies have to produce surveys that reflect the electorate. in a way that pollsters of the past did not..
How reliable are opinion polls?
It’s becoming increasingly difficult to predict who will vote, and a just-released New York Times poll shows how that affects poll results.
We published two different datasets. One was indicative of President Trump. 2 points ahead Another data showing Biden’s share of all registered voters, Trump’s 2 point difference You want to count only the respondents you think are most likely to vote.
“The most important thing about election polls so far is that they all make perfect assumptions about the size and composition of the electorate,” Trussler said.
Even the polls we see are built on basic data that makes some election observers scratch their heads.
Take a recent study, for example. fox news And that new york times It shows Trump is ahead of the curve. They include: amazing The results showed Trump leading by as many as 13 points among the youngest voters who responded.
Similarly, skeptics scoff Support for Trump is reported to be surging among African American poll respondents, three to four times as likely. 8 percent Trump won it last time.
“To me, that’s crazy,” said Miles Coleman, an analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “Trump is not going to understand that.”
His team still pegs Biden as a slight favorite next year. Part of that is based on hopes that he will win back some of the voters he lost, such as young people turned off by Biden’s support for Israel.
With the election underway, Biden vs. Trump, “my guess is that some of them will probably come back,” Coleman said.
The Democratic Party won a landslide victory in the off-year US election, which centered on the national debate on abortion. Researchers who study U.S. attitudes toward abortion said this is yet another sign that the U.S. is a pro-abortion nation.
Clash of turnout giants: Roe vs. Trump
But the truth is we are in uncharted territory.
This election will test two new realities. That’s a powerful force with a similar reputation for rallying voters: President Trump against a new abortion policy.
Since the Supreme Court rolled back access to abortion, Democrats have motivated voters and consistently outperformed expectations in elections and referendums.
We’ll see what that means for Trump, who has twice shattered right-wing turnout records and outperformed polls that have not adequately gauged his support.
Trussler said this election could come down to whether voters resemble recent elections. Ohio abortion referendum (emphasis on college-educated voters, more Democratic) or 2016 and 2020 (More working class, more Republican).
“I don’t know what world we’re going to go to, but neither does anyone at the polling agencies,” Trussler said.
Is panic starting to set in among Democrats? Axelrod said on his own podcast that he still believes Biden is more likely to win than lose.
But one political commentator said there was a risk of a revolt if there were no signs of a change in momentum early in the new year.
Washington Post columnist and Georgetown University professor E.J. Dionne said at a recent event at the Brookings Institution think tank that Democrats need an alternative to Biden if the poll numbers improve. He said it might put an end to the debate.
“If his numbers stay the way they are, I think negotiations will continue. We don’t know yet.” [another candidate] I jumped in, and at one point I thought maybe something had cracked. ”
