Polls suggest that former President Donald Trump is likely to return to office this November, a development that could have far-reaching implications for Canada given how tumultuous his first term was for the country.
Trump leads a united party despite sometimes fierce opposition and criticism over his denial of the election and his role in the attempted January 6 insurrection.
Elected officials, Republicans, and even former Anti-Trump After the assassination attempt, many of his supporters came out to support him at the party convention this week. Leading in every election And so are other states previously considered safe for Democrats.
President Joe Biden finds himself in a vulnerable position as a growing number of Democrats call for him to step aside and give someone else a chance to challenge President Trump.
The possibility of a second term for President Trump throws into even sharper relief what the consequences for Canada could be.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has appointed Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne as a liaison officer on points of contention between the two countries.
Champagne has been traveling around the country, visiting New York, Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, Washington DC, New Jersey and Nebraska in recent months to lobby officials to protect bilateral trade from disruptions or worse.
“Throughout these visits, the Minister actively engaged with key influencers, including mayors, governors, trade union leaders and chambers of commerce, who recognise the increasing interconnectedness of our economies,” a spokesman for the Minister said in a statement.
Laura Dawson is an expert on Canada-U.S. relations and executive director of the Future Borders Coalition.
She said while Trump’s reelection may give Canada some opportunities and his pro-fossil fuel policies may be a boost for the oil industry, there are many more issues to consider with such a mercurial leader in the White House.
“I think it’s entirely possible that Trump could become president again. Unless something really unexpected happens, it’s a very real possibility. He’s not just a Teflon candidate, he’s a man of steel at this point,” she told CBC News.
A second term for Trump could bring back protectionism and create an adversarial relationship between Canada and the United States, she said.
Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s former trade representative, said relations between Canada and the U.S. were at their lowest point since the War of 1812 during the 2017-18 NAFTA negotiations.
Dawson said a second four-year term could be just as challenging.
“A Trump victory has left Canadians hesitant and anxious. We have a pretty good idea of the directions the Trump campaign will take on issues that affect Canada, and none of them are very good,” she said.
Trump’s policy platform announced
The Republican Party’s recently released platform is shorter (just 16 pages) and contains fewer details than previous platforms.
Written in Trumpian prose, the platform is reminiscent of his social media posts: long on populist rhetoric and slogans and short on details.
But it does suggest that Trump’s second term will be focused on illegal immigration (he wants to “run the largest deportation operation in American history”) and imposing trade sanctions.
This will send a warning to allies such as Canada that they must increase their defense spending or risk losing U.S. military support.
Donald Trump spoke to the crowd at the Republican National Convention about the assassination attempt that took place at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday. Trump said this was his only chance to relive the events because they were too painful.
The company also promises to “dig, dig, dig,” saying it will flood the market with cheap energy products in an effort to lower inflation and gasoline prices.
All of these priorities could have a meaningful impact on Canada.
“Our nation is in deep decline. Our future, our identity, and our very way of life are under threat like never before. If we are to lead our nation to a brighter future, we must today reawaken the same American spirit that has carried us through all the difficulties of the past,” the platform reads.
Tariff threat looms over Canada-US trade relationship
The issue of greatest concern to Canadian political, business and labour leaders is bilateral trade relations.
The federal Liberal government successfully renegotiated NAFTA with Trump and Mexico in 2018 after fierce debate with Lighthizer and anti-free trade allies in Trump’s inner circle, such as Peter Navarro.
The new NAFTA left trade relations intact and did relatively little damage.
In fact, exports from the United States to Canada and imports from Canada are There was a big increase last year That’s up from 2015, according to U.S. Census data.
But Trump’s policy platform again includes messages about “unfair trade deals” and “blind faith in the allure of globalization.”
“For decades, our politicians have sold off our jobs and lives to the highest bidder overseas,” the platform states.
Dawson said an immediate priority for Canadian officials is to fight President Trump’s proposal to impose tariffs of up to 10 percent on all U.S. trading partners as part of an effort to encourage companies to make products in the United States.
Despite looming threats to Canada-U.S. trade relations from presidential candidate Donald Trump, “Team Canada” is confident that U.S. industry leaders understand that Canada is “essential” to North America’s economic growth, said François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry.
“In the short term, I don’t see a way to protect the USCMA from a 10% universal tariff that Canada would have to deal with and that would create investor uncertainty and instability,” Dawson said, referring to the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade agreement.
“A second Trump administration will do everything in its power to alienate its neighbors and allies and funnel investment, jobs and attention to the United States.”
Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, Trump’s pick for vice president, hinted at what’s to come in his keynote speech at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on Thursday.
Vance said Biden, as a former senator, supported NAFTA, “sending countless good jobs to Mexico” and giving China “a sweet trade deal that will destroy even more good, American middle-class jobs.”
“We are no longer willing to sacrifice our supply chains for the sake of unrestricted global trade. We will now put a beautiful ‘Made in the USA’ label on more products,” Vance said.
Canada’s ambassador to the United States, Kirsten Hillman, said Canada opposes protectionism that could undermine interests on both sides of the border.
Hillman, speaking on the sidelines of the Republican National Convention where Trump was formally nominated, said Canada was already in discussions with the former president’s aides about any kind of exemption.
“We are discussing this with President Trump’s advisers,” Hillman said during a panel hosted by Politico and CNN.
“We urge them to consider what the impacts of that are.”
CBC News reported that Trump representatives have declined to say whether Canada will be given exemptions from the tariffs, as Canada is considering some form of trade retaliation if no exemptions are offered.
Dawson said one solution to these trade issues is to revive the NAFTA-era “Team Canada” approach that helped secure the revised trade agreement, with federal, state, local, business and labor leaders meeting with the American people to protect bilateral trade.
Protecting the new NAFTA, which is due for review in 2026, is also a priority for Canadian officials. After all, more than 78% of Canadian exports went to the United States last year.
Republicans criticize Canadian defense spending
While trade issues remain a near-ever-present part of Canada-U.S. relations, Canada’s relative lack of military spending has emerged as a new area of conflict.
Republicans have slammed Canada’s military spending in recent weeks, arguing that the Canadian government must finally meet its long-standing NATO commitment to allocate 2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) to defense spending.
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, a strong supporter of President Trump, said Canada has relied on U.S. “benefits” for too long.
“They have the safety and security of being on our borders and they shouldn’t have to worry about that. I think that’s a disgrace,” he said.
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators has written to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urging Canada to meet NATO spending targets first agreed to in 2014. Sen. Kevin Cramer, who co-authored the letter, said Canada “needs to do a little more” to help ensure freedom.
“The time has come for our northern allies to seriously invest in the hard power needed to keep NATO prosperous and secure across the board,” Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said in a media statement.
Vance vowed Thursday that the Trump administration would “no longer allow countries to get a free ride on the generosity of American taxpayers.”
This could be a sign of what’s to come if Trump actually wins.
Speaking at a rally in South Carolina earlier this year, President Trump said the US would not protect allies that failed to meet the 2% target.
“In fact, I encourage them to do whatever they want,” he said of his military adversaries, whom he would not name. “They have to pay a price. They have to pay the bills.”
Canada refutes claims it is a free rider, saying it has increased its military spending among the top five among NATO member states since 2015.
And last week, Prime Minister Trudeau said Canada would reach the 2 per cent target by 2032, but didn’t offer a plan for how to get there.
David Perry, president of the Canadian Institute of International Affairs, said the U.S. is currently fixated on Canada’s military spending.
Perry said Canada has committed to hitting 2 per cent within eight years, so to counter U.S. criticism it needs to produce a credible plan to get there.
“For our allies, this metric is important. When I was in Washington, the 2 percent spending commitment came up a lot,” Perry told CBC News, speaking about the meeting on the sidelines of a recent NATO conference.
