Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could step up Canada’s efforts to help Southeast Asian countries face growing threats from China during this week’s summit with regional leaders in Laos, experts say. That’s what it means.
Southeast Asian countries want to stop China from using their navies, coast guard and commercial ships to bully them during territorial disputes, and they want to stop China from using their navies, coast guard and merchant ships to bully them during territorial disputes, said Stephen Nagy, a senior fellow and expert at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. He said stronger protection from threats is needed. Indo-Pacific security is important.
“No country in the region wants to escalate security tensions in the region, but we do want to have the ability to address these challenges bilaterally with China,” Nagy said. .
Prime Minister Trudeau will begin two days of talks on Thursday with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a regional bloc made up of Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia.
ASEAN’s mission is to foster economic growth and promote peace and stability. But in recent years, China’s increasingly aggressive approach to foreign relations has made promoting peace in the region more difficult.
This week’s summit comes against the backdrop of rising tensions in the South China Sea, a key artery for international trade. China claims most of the busy waterway, although Brunei, the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam also have overlapping claims.
Nagy said China was using “hybrid tactics.” This includes sending coastguards and commercial vessels to pressure the Philippines and Vietnam to vacate territory they believe is within their exclusive economic zones.
Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently accused Chinese law enforcement of attacking Vietnamese fishermen and seizing their fishing gear.
In August, the Philippines announced that the Chinese coast guard had sprayed water on two of its vessels, damaging one.
“The South China Sea is truly a cauldron of instability,” Nagy said.
“What we think is that this could escalate into a violent conflict, and what that means is a military conflict within the South China Sea.”
Nagy said such a dispute would affect about $5.5 trillion of annual U.S. trade through the South China Sea, a trade that includes hundreds of billions of dollars of Canadian goods. He also said there would be disruptions to critical supply chains, including those supplying semiconductors to Canadian industry.
Canada supplies ‘dark ship’ technology
Bina Najibulla, deputy director of research and strategy at the Canadian Asia-Pacific Foundation, said Canada and the United States are among the countries that have accused China of “aggressive behavior” in the South China Sea.
He said these “unprofessional” tactics – widely seen as intimidation and coercion – were leading to “constant near misses” between ships.
“Essentially, [the Chinese are] “We are trying to discourage other countries from using the resources available in our own economies,” she said.
Najibullah said Canada can do more to assist the Philippines with its maritime awareness and help it track where Chinese vessels are sailing in or near its waters.
The federal government recently gave the Philippines access to technology that can detect ships that have turned off their radar.
The Department of Fisheries and Oceans announced it will provide the Philippine National Maritime Center and other Philippine authorities with access to the Dark Vessel Detection Platform and near real-time Canadian government and commercial satellite imagery from 2023 to 2028.
This technology is primarily used by Canada’s federal government to monitor illegal and unregulated fishing. Najibullah said it could also be used to monitor China’s movements across the South China Sea.
Canada has an opportunity to provide other ASEAN countries with access to this technology, contributing to stability in the region, Nagy said.
“We need to prove that we are a reliable and sustainable partner within the region,” Nagy said. “That means demonstrating the concrete commitments we are willing to invest in, both in terms of resources and finances.”
Canada may also provide joint training or send Canadian personnel to assist ASEAN countries with maritime awareness, he said.
Protect your network from cyber attacks
Some countries in the region are also looking to Canada to help counter cyber threats.
At the summit, Prime Minister’s Office said Trudeau will “underscore Canada’s role in addressing new and emerging challenges to peace and security, including cybercrime.”
Richard Weitz, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis, said China is targeting countries around the world primarily to steal intellectual property and infect critical infrastructure with malware. He said he was launching an online attack.
Western countries, including Canada, have taken steps to strengthen their defenses and are now able to share their technology with Southeast Asian countries, he said.
“While ASEAN countries do not want to openly confront China, they naturally want to secure their networks from Chinese state actors and even from Chinese private actors,” Weitz said.
Maj. Gen. Dave Yarker, commander of the Canadian Armed Forces Cyber Command, said the secret to online defense is the cooperation of allies.
“What Canada can bring is some of our expertise, our knowledge and our work, and that’s what we’re doing today,” Yarker said.
But experts also say Canada needs to tread carefully to avoid drawing China into a broader conflict.
ASEAN was established in 1967 at the height of the Vietnam War with the aim of promoting regional stability and containing communist influence.
Julie Nguyen, chair of the Canada-ASEAN Initiative at the York Center for Asian Studies, said ASEAN members are in a difficult position because the region’s largest trading partners are China and the United States.
“ASEAN countries understand that the conflict between the United States and China must be handled carefully,” Nguyen said.
“There needs to be a balance that ensures peace and security in the region, while ensuring business security allows for economic development in the region.”