Buffalo Bills -12.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-115)
The Bills just sent a warning across the NFL after crushing the Cowboys 31-10 last week, but it’s hard not to see them do similar damage to the Chargers. James Cook had the best performance of his career in the Dallas win, highlighting Buffalo’s dominance in the air and on the ground, as did Josh Allen. Considering Los Angeles allows the sixth-most rushing touchdowns in the league, it wouldn’t be surprising to see more success from Cook here.
But even if the Bills offense wasn’t quite as bad this week, they should still be able to cover the spread considering how anemic the Chargers have become. In addition to Mike Williams, Justin Herbert is out for the season, and Keenan Allen will also miss this game with a knee injury. Austin Ekeler has struggled in recent weeks to the point where the Chargers are running a three-man running back committee. We saw how badly Los Angeles was hurt last week against Las Vegas, and I believe they could be in for another tough game.
Less than 50.5 (-320)
For the next Bills vs. Chargers same-game parlay, take the under with a different number. This is a bit of a conservative choice considering the Chargers don’t expect much production offensively, but it also provides insurance in case Buffalo goes up in scoring. After all, the Bills have scored 31 points or more in three of their last four games. This is also a calculated move based on SGP’s final pick, and if you take the under even on an inflated number, you’ll see a contrarian play significantly increase your overall odds.
Isaiah Spiller scores a touchdown (+600)
This is the leg that really pushes the odds up in this SGP as it picks (at great odds) a Chargers player to score a TD competing with the Bills covering both the spread and the under. But I think this is a risk worth taking. I mentioned above that the Chargers were going to run a three-man committee out of the backfield, and Isaiah Spiller could be seen as a big beneficiary of that. He had 16 carries for 50 yards last week against the Raiders, and there are rumors that he will have a similar workload here. Buffalo has allowed four rushing touchdowns in the last three games, and despite the Chargers’ offensive woes, I expect them to find the end zone at some point. It’s very long odds, but I’m willing to take the chance that Spiller will be that guy.
