Bet on Jerome Ford, Wan’Dale Robinson, Rodney Thomas II

This file will be updated throughout Saturday. nfl player props Week 10So notice this space where the prop picks come in.

Thomas only cleared that line in three of nine games, and it’s hard to see him reversing that trend against the Patriots.

Thomas plays deep safety over 70% of the time, and may not see many tackle opportunities as Mac Jones will quickly get rid of the ball (a 2.48 second throw time is more than enough for a qualified QB). (3rd fastest among them). Jones also doesn’t complete many passes from the field (5th lowest average air yards per completion at 4.4).

With LT Trent Brown out, the Pats will want to be even more conservative with their passing attack. And with DeVante Parker still out, they will once again be going as deep as 12 players.

Thomas also doesn’t help much in the run game. That means Jones will need to complete a long pass to a player like Jalen Reagor to get a chance to make a tackle. Yes… please register under.

Additionally, the Colts’ home score keepers have some of the highest assist rates in the league, so whenever they’re away from home, it’s less likely that their defenders will pick up a cheap assist or two.

I project Thomas’ tackles and assists to be close to 2.8, with a 64% chance of staying below 3.5.

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Ford’s yards per carry (4.0) is a bit misleading as he has broken off twice this season for 69 yards. His median was just 2 yards per rush, indicating that he was fairly inefficient outside of his two explosive runs.

That inefficiency should continue against a Ravens defense that ranks third in DVOA against the run. It’s also possible that the Browns don’t run as much or dominate the time of possession in this game, and Ford may not get enough carries to clear this number. He also operates as Cleveland’s primary passback, but backup Kareem Hunt has taken over the early down job, hurting his upside in this market.

The Browns’ offensive line was decimated with both Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr. on IR. With Dawand Jones also ruled out, the Browns will likely have to shuffle their O-line considerably.

James Hudson III, in particular, will be given every role. He’s been a disaster this season, averaging just 2.5 yards per carry when Hudson is on the field, compared to 4.5 when Hudson is off.

I predict Ford’s median will be close to 34.5, with a 61% chance of staying below 42.5.

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Robinson has only cleared that total once on the season, but his average target depth is 3.8, the sixth-lowest among eligible receivers and tight ends. What’s even more concerning is that his expected yards after the catch are only 4.3. Most players with aDot this low usually get at least 5 expected yards after the catch.

Therefore, Robinson is not projected to be an explosive play and will have a hard time clearing those numbers most weeks. With Tommy DeVito under center, his chances of clearing will probably be even less likely.

Dallas probably won’t have to worry about DeVito throwing deep and could put an extra defender near Robinson whenever he brings in a pass.

I predict Robinson’s median rating in this market will be close to 12.5, with a 65% chance of staying below 15.5.

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