The Bank of Canada has predicted that the federal government may not meet its goal of reducing the share of temporary residents in Canada’s population over the next three years.
Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced in March that the Canadian government aims to reduce the proportion of immigrants in the population from 6.2% to 5% by 2027.
But the Bank of Canada predicted Wednesday that the government would miss that target. The bank’s Monetary Policy Report, released as part of the interest rate cut announcement, said the non-permanent resident (NPR) share of the population has actually increased since the target was set in March.
“As of early April, NPRs made up 6.8% of the population, significantly higher than in the March figures, and this proportion is expected to continue to rise in the near term,” the report said.
“This suggests that the proposed policy will take longer to reduce NPR inflows and achieve the 5 percent target.”
The central bank’s report noted there was “considerable uncertainty” in its projections.
“Details on how most temporary residence permit programs will be adjusted are not expected to be announced until later this year,” it said, adding that “the scenario will be revised as further measures are announced and details on program changes become available.”
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) said in a statement that the department plans to include measures to address the influx of temporary residents into Canada in future immigration levels plans.
“The Levels Plan is being expanded to include both temporary and permanent resident arrivals. It is expected to be submitted in the fall as part of Canada’s annual Levels Plan, following consultation with provincial and territorial counterparts and other stakeholders,” the statement said.
The target is expected to be adjusted by the summer.
Miller met with state and territory officials earlier this spring, with goals expected to be finalized by the summer.
The bank’s report comes as the government takes steps to curb a surge in people moving to Canada temporarily to work or study.
Miller also announced plans in January to reduce international student numbers by capping new admissions for two years.
IRCC’s latest data shows an increase in the number of student visas approved this year compared to 2023, which was a record year.
The government approved 216,620 student visas in the first five months of 2024, compared with 200,505 approved in the same period in 2023.
However, student visa cap figures are not finalized until April, and IRCC’s figures may not yet reflect the change.
