President Biden raised hopes last week when he endorsed a plan that he said could lead to a “permanent cessation of hostilities.” He said Israel had proposed the plan, but neither Israel nor Hamas have clearly stated whether they would accept or reject the proposal, appearing to remain at odds on fundamental issues.
Here’s what we know about the ceasefire, the key points that still need to be negotiated, and the hurdles that lie ahead.
Israel and Hamas agreed to a week-long ceasefire in November, but the proposal under consideration now – put forward by Biden, senior U.S. administration officials and Israeli officials – is more ambitious. Key questions remain unresolved, including whether Hamas will continue to control the Gaza Strip.
The proposal will be rolled out in three phases.
In the first phase, Israel will withdraw from densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip during a six-week ceasefire and dozens of hostages, including women and elderly people, held in the Gaza Strip by Hamas and its allies will be exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian detainees in Israeli prisons.
Meanwhile, talks on a permanent ceasefire will continue and, if successful, the deal would enter into a second phase in which Israeli forces would withdraw completely from the enclave. All hostages would be released, along with many more Palestinian prisoners. In the third phase, Hamas would return the bodies of those who died and a three-to-five-year reconstruction period would begin, supported by the United States, European countries and international organizations.
What are Israel’s concerns?
One of the biggest divides between Hamas and Israel over the plan is the length of the ceasefire and Hamas’ future role. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday he was open to a six-week ceasefire, according to people who attended a closed-door meeting with Israeli lawmakers. But he has publicly said Israel will fight until Hamas’ governing and military power is destroyed.
As the proposal is laid out, Hamas would hold talks with Israel in phases two and three, suggesting that Hamas would maintain some control over the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu has repeatedly said this is a red line that must not be crossed, and he has also rejected any governing role for Hamas’ nemesis, the Palestinian Authority, which has limited powers to govern the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
The Israeli prime minister is under pressure from the United States and other allies to end the war, but also from two far-right factions of his ruling coalition, who are threatening to topple his government if Israel agrees to a deal to end the war without expelling Hamas.
In a sign of that pressure, Israel’s far-right Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said on Wednesday that his party Continued confusion Biden had not backed Netanyahu’s coalition government until he released details of his proposal, which two Israeli officials confirmed this week was broadly consistent with Israel’s latest ceasefire proposal in talks brokered by Qatar and Egypt.
What about Hamas?
Hamas has said it has responded “positively” to the plan, but at a press conference on Tuesday, Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan said the group had told mediators it could not approve any agreement that did not provide for a permanent ceasefire, a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops and a “serious and genuine deal” to exchange Palestinian prisoners and hostages.
The same day, Sami Abu Zuhri, a member of Hamas’ politburo, accused Israel of not being serious about the agreement and said the White House was pressuring Hamas “knowing that the problem is with Israel.”
Many Gaza residents are eager for an end to the war, but experts say the militant group Hamas is not responding to their wishes. Political experts say the group’s leaders, including Gaza’s top official, Yahya Sinwar, may be in no hurry to end the conflict because they believe agreeing to release the hostages would weaken Hamas’ influence.
Sinwal, the suspected mastermind behind the Oct. 7 attack, has not yet commented on the proposal, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.
Adam Rasgon Contributed report.
