Airlines prepare for third-quarter traffic record

A record number of Indians are expected to fly this December quarter, thanks to the festival season, long holidays and the Cricket World Cup, airline executives said.

“We are preparing for record demand over the past three months. Capacity has been deployed accordingly, but global supply constraints will have some impact on the supply side. ” said an airline executive on condition of anonymity, adding that this could lead to fare increases this quarter.

Air travel has increased by an average of nearly 8% in each month since January compared to the corresponding period before the pandemic, according to official data. Despite Go First cancellations and soaring fares, domestic air passenger numbers hit a record in May. In the same month, Indian airlines carried over 13.2 million passengers, surpassing the previous record of 13.02 million set in December 2019.

“The current scenario shows that air traffic will set new records not only on a monthly basis but also on a quarterly basis. All stakeholders, including airports, will Stakeholders are making plans to accommodate this kind of growth,” said another executive at a low-fare airline. This includes improved security checks. -We are in the process of increasing our production capacity in other areas as well.

Rough calculations based on government data suggest domestic air passenger numbers could be around 12.3 million in September, or 7% more than the number of passengers in the same month in 2019 before the pandemic, and more than 18% more than in September 2022. It has been shown that there is a sex. .

“Travel related to the 2023 World Cup, which starts on October 5 and concludes on November 19, will also act as a catalyst to boost domestic air travel momentum,” the second executive added.

Despite soaring airfares, demand remains unabated. In April, when GoFirst was still operating, it operated about 2,900 flights per day and carried 12.9 million passengers. Due to the airline’s suspension of operations on May 3, the total number of flights per day decreased by about 100 flights, but the number of passengers for the month reached 13.2 million.

With new aircraft arriving slower than expected, airlines are also preparing to wet-lease aircraft to ensure they can meet demand. IndiGo, India’s largest airline, has received regulatory approval to wet-lease 11 Airbus A320neo aircraft for a period of three months. SpiceJet also has plans to revive 10 grounded aircraft and may bring in 10 more on wet lease.

Under a wet lease agreement, the airline takes delivery of the aircraft along with its crew.

An IndiGo spokesperson said the December quarter is always a busy one as Indians celebrate Durga Puja and Diwali, visit friends and relatives, return to their hometowns and travel during the peak wedding season. He said demand will skyrocket. This day also coincides with the long Christmas and New Year holidays in many parts of the world.

“Interestingly, in today’s era, new travel trends have also emerged. Traditionally, some people prefer to stay at home during these festivals, but now people like to fly to the beach or the mountains.” “In my view, this shows that people’s travel patterns are changing compared to before,” the spokesperson added.

Rating agency Icra estimates that India’s domestic air passenger numbers will increase by 8-13%, reaching 150-155 million in FY24, compared to pre-COVID-19 levels in FY2011. It is estimated that there are over 41.2 million people. Icra further said it expects airline pricing power to continue, but warned of the impact of rising aviation turbine fuel prices and currency fluctuations on Indian airlines’ cost structures.