Ontario Premier Doug Ford embarked on a series of interviews with U.S. media this week, touting the importance of trade between Canada and its southern neighbor and urging President-elect Donald Trump to reverse his tariff threat. I was hoping that I could convince him.
Mr. Ford gave interviews to The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press and Bloomberg News on Tuesday, and in an interview with CNN host Erin Burnett that evening. He seemed to have adopted a conciliatory tone.
“You know, both sides of the border are going to feel the pain. We trust each other,” he said during an interview with Barnett.
“I love Americans, and I love America, and we are so much stronger together.”
Mr. Ford also said he would like to sit down and have a “businessman-to-businessman” conversation with Mr. Trump.
President Trump has said that if Canada does not crack down on the number of immigrants and drugs entering the United States, he will impose a flat 25% tariff on Canadian goods.
A spokesperson for the Prime Minister’s Office said Ford embarked on the media tour to highlight the deep economic relationship between the two countries and the impact the tariffs would have on American workers and families as well.
“The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. represents a major failure by the federal government. Protecting Canadian workers requires a full-frontal Team Canada approach,” the spokesperson said.
The impact of interviews is debatable
But it remains to be seen how much of an impact Ford’s efforts will have.
Gary Hufbauer, a senior non-resident fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that even though Ford is premier of Canada’s most populous province, statements from state leaders typically don’t get much attention in the United States. That’s what it means.
“It’s like, what would people say if one of the U.S. governors said something about Canada? Canadians don’t really care about that,” said Hufbauer, who has written extensively about international trade. I don’t think they’re paying attention.”
“This is really a central government issue, not a state or state issue.”
Hufbauer said Ford might be better off following through on its threat to withhold energy exports to U.S. states. The effects will be felt in the Northeast.
Ontario exported 17,500 gigawatt-hours of electricity in 2022, of which 9,068 gigawatt-hours went to Michigan, according to the Independent Power System Operator of Ontario (IESO), the crown corporation responsible for exporting electricity to the United States. 4,823 gigawatt hours were sent to New York.
One gigawatt of electricity is enough to power 100 million LED light bulbs.
“So all Canada has to do is shut off the power on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. That would get plenty of attention,” Hufbauer said.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford reiterated his threat to halt Ontario’s energy exports to the U.S. if President Donald Trump complies with tariffs, demanding U.S. orders from the LCBO, one of the world’s largest liquor buyers. He said he is considering banning the import of domestically produced alcohol products. Alberta Premier Daniel Smith urged diplomacy and said the province has no intention of cutting energy exports.
Peter Greif, an associate professor of political science at McMaster University, said that although Mr. Ford is not a federal leader, he may be able to connect with an audience that Canada’s prime minister may not be able to.
“While some audiences may not listen to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government, Conservative politicians who speak in a fairly populist manner may resonate with some of Donald Trump’s base. “No, but it may resonate with some politicians who support Trump,” Graef said.
At the end of the day, Graefe said, the real leader in this impending trade war needs to come from Ottawa.
“Mr. Trudeau is in a crisis and doesn’t have time to really elaborate on this, so Ford’s presence is increasing, and that’s not the case.” [Ford]It really has to do with the levers that make the final decision,” he said.
“So it’s hard to really see him as the leader of this file.”
