For Canadians, American democracy is a spectator sport, an eternal source of concern, and a measuring stick. We view the scene as a mixture of fascination, inspiration, fear, and helplessness, yet we define ourselves by comparison.
The United States is both our noisy neighbor and by an order of magnitude our most valuable trading partner. But living next to (and under) the world’s most powerful democracy also brought some peace of mind. At least until recently.
Now, Canada is once again forced to confront the profound uncertainty that comes with living next door to, and deeply intertwined with, a country in which Donald J. Trump will hold the highest elected office. are.
President Trump’s election in 2016 was shocking. It upended assumptions about what was taken for granted in American politics and the world order. The next four years were tense and unpredictable, presenting unexpected challenges and incredible turmoil for Canada’s leaders.
Almost immediately after the 2016 results, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government scrambled to accommodate his desire to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, an issue that took more than a year to resolve. Individuals and families have begun to enter Canada as the United States moves to crack down on immigration. Wroxham Road.
Just before Canada Day in 2018, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, starting a trade war that lasted until 2019. The G7 Summit in Charlevoix, Quebec concluded in 2019. Vicious and threatening tweets.
“This is the most difficult moment our entire country has ever faced,” said Bob Rae, Canada’s current ambassador to the United States. I wrote In the summer of 2018.
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne, International Trade Minister Mary Ng and Defense Minister Bill Blair will discuss how they plan to work with the new Trump administration on trade, foreign affairs and defence.
Beyond the most immediate concerns, Prime Minister Trudeau and his cabinet were regularly asked (or forced) to respond to events south of the border. withdraw the United States from international climate agreementsTrump administration policy separating immigrant children from their parents,and Use of police and military against protesters (It is a famous story that Prime Minister Trudeau left) 21 seconds of silence before he gave a relatively diplomatic response).
The election of Joe Biden in 2020 brought some relief. It held out the promise of a return to normalcy. And there remains the possibility that President Trump’s four years in office were an anomaly.
That was always wishful thinking. But Tuesday night’s results provided inescapable evidence that Donald Trump’s ascension to the US presidency is no fluke or temporary phenomenon.
What will the next four years bring?
In fact, the next four years threaten to be even more destructive and disturbing than the first four. Canadian officials can draw on the experience of what happened between 2016 and 2020 and how the country responded, but the challenges have grown deeper and President Trump’s actions It could be more dramatic.
The Trump administration may seek to revise NAFTA. But even if NAFTA is left alone; Global import tariff threat Not only would it damage Canada’s economy, it could disrupt the global economy.
If President Trump pursues future policies, Mass deportation of immigrants from the United Stateshis actions could cause people to rush towards Canada in search of safety. of The future of the NATO security alliance The present is uncertain and the Canadian government will face New pressure to quickly increase military spending.
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland responded to a question Wednesday about President Donald Trump’s promise of mass deportations from the United States and whether Canada should expect a surge in immigration.
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The United States will likely be less interested in contributing to international efforts to combat climate change, which could make it more difficult for Canadian leaders to act. With massive tax cuts from the U.S. federal government, the Canadian government following Because they are afraid of losing their competitive edge.
All of this may be possible. On Wednesday, Canadian officials expressed calm and resolve. However, even if the disruption and damage could be reduced, a Trump presidency would likely consume significant energy and place a significant burden on the Canadian government and people.
And there are also deeper questions about the future of American democracy.
Americans are leading their country on a ‘dangerous course’
“America’s voters chose to return Donald Trump to the White House, leading the country in an unstable direction that no one could fully foresee,” the New York Times editorial board said. I wrote Tuesday morning.
President Trump sought to overturn the results of the last presidential election and incited a mob to launch a violent attack on the U.S. Capitol. he convicted felon who went He has also been charged with several other charges.. he has lost in thought About punishing those who criticize and oppose him.
he might be Replace U.S. government officials with loyalists and further centralize power. Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said: I believe Opinion that Trump is a fascist clearly shared It was written by one of President Trump’s former chief of staff.
What would that mean for Canada and Canadians if American democracy were to become even more dysfunctional and dilapidated, even precipitously?
If our national tendency to differentiate ourselves from Americans causes our neighbors to continue down a dark path, our democracy may be less likely to emulate America’s. You might even get a front row seat to a cautionary tale.
But what’s notable is that Trump’s approval rating in Canada has actually increased over the past four years — from 15% in 2000 to 21% in 2000. Environics asked Canadians in September which presidential candidate they preferred. A plurality of conservative voters favored Trump over Kamala Harris, a change from four years ago when Biden was on the ballot. Among men ages 18 to 34, support for Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump was evenly split.
Suffice it to say that everything is a little more uncertain for now. And attention has inevitably shifted south.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Opposition Leader Pierre Poièvre both took to social media to congratulate U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, while NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh urged Canadians to come together to protect Canada’s interests. I called out.
During Wednesday’s question period, 27 of the 40 questions to the government made some reference to the United States, as the opposition sought to exploit the public interest. Conservative leader Pierre Poièvre appears to want to start a debate about who is best suited to deal with the next president. It seems almost certain that Mr. Trump will loom in the next federal election in some way.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland sought to offer reassurance with public congratulations at her weekly press conference.
“We live very close to the United States, so I know a lot of Canadians were excited about the U.S. election,” she said. “I know many Canadians are feeling anxious today, but I want to say to all Canadians that Canada is prosperous, Canadians are safe, and our sovereign, sovereign We are absolutely confident that our identity is safe. We will work with this newly elected U.S. administration.”
Of course, the fact that we now have to provide such reassurance only emphasizes how much we need to worry.
