During his campaign for the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump memorably called “tariffs” “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” and called for a minimum 10% tariff on all imports worldwide. threatened to impose charges.
Now that he is in office for a second term, Canada and other U.S. trading partners are gearing up for Trump to put his words into action.
On Tuesday morning, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau congratulated President Trump on his victory, saying, “The friendship between Canada and the United States is the envy of the world. President Trump and I will continue to work together to create more opportunity, prosperity and security for both countries.” I know we will work together.” of our country. ”
But some experts suggest that the promise of drastic tariffs could result in a catastrophic loss of 5% of GDP.
For Canadian veterans of the trade war with the first Trump administration, there is a sense of deja vu.
Flavio Volpe, president of Canada’s auto parts lobby, referred to President Trump’s 2020 slap in the face move, saying, “We have national security concerns over Canadian aluminum purchased by our military to make claims that no one understands.” “Welcome to the administration that imposed tariffs.” Most aluminum in Canada is subject to a 10% tariff.
Can Ottawa negotiate a waiver?
Volpe expressed hope that Canada working with the U.S. to block imports from China might create common ground between the two countries.
But the big change from President Trump’s first term is that he is now talking about imposing tariffs on everything from everywhere, calling the move a strategy to force manufacturers to make in the United States. That’s what I’m explaining.
At a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Monday, President Trump threatened Mexico with a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico “on day one or sooner” unless Mexico stops the influx of illegal immigrants. He vowed to raise tariffs to 50% and then to 75% if results were not achieved.
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland sought to reassure Canadians worried about the election result that the government has good relations with both Democrats and Republicans.
Still, approximately $3.6 billion worth of goods and services flow across the Canada-U.S. border every day, and President Trump’s proposal for a minimum international tariff of 10% would have a significant impact on Canada’s economy.
Republican Donald Trump claimed an “amazing victory” after winning several key battleground states, including Pennsylvania, and told his supporters they were part of the “greatest political movement in history.” spoke.
It is believed that Ottawa will try to negotiate tariff exemptions and, if that fails, consider dissuading President Trump from imposing tariffs, which would bring with it the threat of retaliation from the United States. Canada risks being drawn into a bitter trade war with the South. Neighbors.
Canada’s ambassador to Washington publicly mused about the possibility of retaliation from the United States without a waiver.
A recent report from TD Economics was more optimistic, saying that President Trump’s best and most likely use of tariffs is to make concessions to Canada in the renegotiation of CUSMA, the trade agreement between Canada, the United States, and Mexico. He said it would serve as a bargaining chip for coercion. 2026.
military spending problem
Canadian trade is not the only trade that could be affected by President Trump. He is also likely to put more pressure on Canada to increase defense spending, something that has received bipartisan support from both Republicans and Democrats who say Canada is not fulfilling its NATO spending commitments. Although it is a measure that has been obtained.
The pledge includes spending 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on national defense. Canada currently sets aside an amount equivalent to 1.3% of its gross domestic product (GDP) for military spending, but plans to reach 1.76% by the end of 2020.
Senior defenseman Elbridge Colby strategist It may play an important role in the former Trump administration, and it may play an important role in the next Trump administration. told CBC News This year, he said he would ask the U.S. to take unprecedented steps to increase its contributions to Ottawa, including threatening economic sanctions against Canada.
President Trump said at a rally in South Carolina earlier this year that the United States would not protect allies who fail to meet the 2% goal.
David Frum, a staff writer for The Atlantic and a speechwriter for former President George W. They believe they may “hold you to ransom” to get something. he wants He also suggested that President Trump could reduce arms to Ukraine and pay the price for the war against Russia.
Immigration is another issue that affects Canada. President Trump has said he wants to address the estimated 11 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally by carrying out the largest deportation drive in U.S. history. The move could lead to a surge in illegal border crossings into Canada.
“Individual [may] I’ll run to Canada to avoid that. [deportation]Christopher Sands, director of the Canadian Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, told CBC News last week.
Canada announced immigration cuts last month to ease pressure on the housing market. Trump, social media postswrote, “Even Justin Trudeau wants to close Canada’s borders.”
“Through our ridiculous ‘open borders’ policy, we are the only ones who allow people, including hundreds of thousands of criminals, to freely enter the United States,” Trump said.
