Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event at Erie Insurance Arena on October 14, 2024 in Erie, Pennsylvania.
Dustin Franz | AFP | Getty Images
Political betting platform Polymarket has seen a sharp turn toward former President Donald Trump this month, with surveillance of four accounts that collectively spent more than $28 million betting on Republican candidates to win the 2024 presidential election. ‘s eyes widened.
Polymarket confirmed the numbers Thursday. expert have i doubt it: All four accounts are managed by one trader.
In a statement to CNBC, a company spokesperson said Whale is a French national with “extensive trade experience and a background in financial services.”
According to the statement, the trader’s account was funded by a “well-known centralized cryptocurrency exchange,” which other media outlets have identified as the US-based exchange Kraken.
The company claimed it found no evidence that the trader was trying to boost Mr. Trump’s odds in the political betting market.
The investigation, which included third-party experts, “so far has not identified any information to suggest that this user manipulated or attempted to manipulate the market,” Polymarket said.
The New York Times reported. Polymarket statement Early Thursday morning, the company said it was working with research firm Nardello & Company.
The increased scrutiny of political market transactions comes as political gambling markets are set to play a more prominent role in the 2024 election cycle.
Trump’s supporters have touted the widening odds gap between the polymarket and Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris as evidence that Trump’s support is growing. This is a departure from most national opinion polls, which show close races, and is within the margin of error.
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX and one of the biggest financial backers of President Trump’s bid for the White House, asserted on Xhas said on a social media platform he owns that betting markets are “more accurate than polls because real money is at stake.”
“Prediction markets are not opinion polls. In this case, prediction markets measure the likelihood of an event occurring, rather than the proportion of people who intend to take an action, such as voting on election day,” Polymarket said in a statement Thursday. “I am,” he emphasized.
“Unfortunately, this fundamental misunderstanding is the source of much of the misinformation about Polymarket and other prediction market platforms,” the company said.
As of Thursday morning, the account’s total position in presidential election betting was valued at about $28.6 million, according to Polymarket data.
Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie are among the top five pro-Trump accounts in polymarket bets on the winner of the White House election.
The trader’s account has bet more than $7 million that Trump will beat Harris in the popular vote.
Odds and gambling platforms are not replacements for political polls, as they do not use the techniques used in traditional political polls.
A Polymarket spokesperson said the company believes “this individual has taken a directional position based on his personal views on the election.”
However, the person nevertheless “agreed not to open any future accounts without notice.”
Polymarket is currently banned for U.S. traders following a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
However, another gambling platform, Kalsi, posted a new presidential election contract following a favorable ruling in the federal appeals court in Washington, D.C. interactive broker It also launched a number of political gambling contracts.
The CFTC is challenging Mr. Kalsi’s right to host these bets.
